Missile duel over Kiev: what is behind Putin's threat to use "Oreshnik"

 

"Kiev in three days" and "one nation" are already in the past. Now, in order to become the third pole of the world and have unlimited police functions in the post-Soviet space, Putin believes that it is necessary to do two things: occupy part of Ukraine and scare the world with a group strike "Oreshnik" (according to Putin, this is a substitute for a nuclear strike) and a new the development of the situation - this formula is the basis of Putin's negotiating position for the beginning of 2025. And, not least, this position, once it was stated, did not provoke any dissent from Beijing (Beijing tacitly supports it).

"Nutcracker" has become Putin's new favorite toy. Recently, there has not been a speech by the Russian leader in which he did not talk about the technical characteristics of this missile. He clearly enjoys talking about it and has definitely learned the technical details and is enjoying them.

 

Lately, we are dealing less and less with ratios, and more and more with Putin's emotions or borderline states. And therefore, based on the frequency of mentions, immersion in the subject and the pleasure with which he talks about it, we must understand: for him, "Orešnik" is a miracle weapon that can destroy (in his opinion) all the air defenses and anti-missile systems of Central-Eastern Europe and the Pacific region. Moreover, there is probably an image in his brain that he will frighten the world by the fact that he will do it through Belarus and North Korea and other possible proxies. Indirect confirmation of this is the fact that he says so much that a mass attack by the "Oreshnik" replaces a nuclear strike in terms of power. It should not be forgotten that the Russian concept of negotiations mainly boils down to an attempt to exchange Ukraine for the fact that "he will protect" the world from the madness of Kim and Lukashenko. The concept is so-so, but he's trying to "sell".

 

It is important to pay attention to who made this wonderful weapon — a gift to Putin. The rocket was developed by the structures of the Moscow Institute of Thermotechnics, and the main designer is academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuri Solomonov. Solomonov is, among other things, the author of the book "Russia will not fall on its knees..." (history of Russia from the baptism of Russia to Tsar Ivan III). And two years ago, when the scandalous elections for the head of the Academy of Sciences were held, he supported the candidate Kovalchukiv H. Krasnikov, although he claimed that he did not know this person. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, we can say that Solomonov is at least familiar with the Kovalchuks (one is in charge of historical talks with Putin, and the other is responsible for the development of everything related to aging).

 

As for the institute itself, it is headed by Stanislav Suvorov, a military scientist who spent most of his creative career in structures close to Roskosmos. It is difficult to say who is behind it - the head of "Roscosmos" Borisov or, perhaps, at the highest level, the head of "Rostekh" Chemezov. However, we can assume that in front of Putin there is a set of characters that show that they are the authors of such a "royal" gift. Why is it important to understand who gave Putin this gift? Because it tells us about the ideas these people will present to Putin about the geopolitical possibilities of this wonder weapon. Both the Kovalchuks and the Čemezs are particularly proactive hawks.

Putin's logic, except, of course, the psychiatric component, which is very important, is as follows. He believes that the West should be afraid of his missile program and that he will be forced to sit down with him at the negotiating table on the division of the world.

In particular, it is worth paying attention to the position of the USA in this context... The negotiating position of the USA in the context of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine boils down to three basic things: 1. Localization of the war 2. Managed escalation. 3. Containment of the Russian Federation. And this formula is generally the consensus of both Democrats and Republicans, so Trump's team will preserve it. At the same time, the new American president will start with four specific positions: "Peace through strength"; Limited Security Warranties; Strategic stabilization; Cost optimization. In this formula there is no place for the third pole of the world. And this is the main trigger for Putin. He understands that he will not be able to make Russia the third pole of the world, but he sticks to his new formula for achieving greatness. And there is no one who can tell him anything.

 

As for the scenario for the next year, January-May will be the time for active negotiations. If we do not reach some negotiating positions by May-June, the probability that the war will continue for months increases dramatically.

As for the agreement, there are the following options: freezing (without a signed contract); Minsk-2 (with a certain contract); the Georgian scenario (Ukraine de facto recognizes the territories as occupied and begins a dialogue with the Russian Federation in one form or another); Finnish scenario (we de jure give up part of the territory and start some form of dialogue with the Russian Federation).

And one last thing. The duel between "Oreshnik" and the American Air Defense Forces is a typical Russian thinking in the style of "car bell" and "car cannon". The amount of idiocy is directly proportional to the amount of ego inflation.