Misjudgment of Putin and his generals

"In the northern region of Kharkiv, the Russian radio station Zhizhnj (Life) is heard as far as the border areas. About every 15 minutes, the music stops and a hoarse voice begins to assure listeners that they are "not helping the Ukrainian army." It talks about the hardships and distorts the facts about the armed resistance. He assures listeners that Ukraine has lost 170,000 soldiers and calls on Ukrainians to “free themselves from the clutches of Zelensky.” Every time they hear this, Ukrainians rejoice, very much.

Russia let go of this region as quickly as it entered it. Only bridges blown up, shelling, radio from Belgorod and school textbooks thrown during the retreat remind Ukrainians of the Russian presence. Even according to Russian law, these textbooks are illegal: they were printed during the summer, so the printer did not have time to paint the south of Ukraine in the colors of the Russian flag.

 

From the first day of the war, Russia hoped to succeed in dividing Ukraine. She tried to drive a wedge between East and West. Between the army and the political elite.

Putin called on Ukrainian generals to "take power into their own hands", while his propagandists lamented the fate of the people of Kiev, who "groan under the Galician heel".

Moscow has been convinced of the artificial Ukrainian state for so long that even now it hopes that Ukraine's internal fences will yield more results than external occupation.

 

When it became clear that no one considers the Russian army a "liberator", it turned into an "army of extortionists". Missile strikes on infrastructure are an attempt to take the last hostage to exchange his well-being for negotiations. At the same time, it is still the same attempt to drive a wedge between the civilian population and the military. Moscow dreams of Ukrainian citizens who experience the lack of electricity and water as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian army. They said, "for the Crimean Bridge", "for the Black Sea Fleet" and "for Kherson".

 

However, global Russian misunderstanding of the nature of the Ukrainian state manifested itself here as well. The missile strikes were supposed to break Ukraine apart, but they only contribute to uniting the country even more. There is no substitute — and the citizens of Ukraine are in no hurry to blame the cold and darkness on the successes of their army. Instead of internal trenches, a general ethical line is created. And the ubiquity of missile strikes gives a unity of fate to the regions on the front line and those in the deep rear.

 

Rocket terror was intended as a tool of disunity, but it has turned into its opposite. I remember how, at the beginning of the war, light masking came into practice in many cities. At that time, its meaning was not fully understood: it's not the 1940s, planes don't drop bombs on places of light, and rockets fly according to coordinates and trajectories. We used to joke that the only meaning of blackout was discipline. Blackout and curfew as a nocturnal reminder of war.

 

From the moment Russia started attacking Ukraine's thermal power plants, the discipline of home lighting - in its broadest sense - took on a practical meaning. The utility market has finally lost market laws. It will no longer be possible to justify the habit of blacking out with the willingness to pay utility bills. A kilowatt started to cost much more than the amount on the bill. Willingness to save has now turned into a test of solidarity. Willingness to help neighbors — too.

 

For decades, Ukraine, by inertia, perceived the Second World War as the "main war" of its own history. Its scale and ubiquity blurred the line between rear and front. Its totality gave rise to various "family stories" - which, despite all the differences, had something in common. And now Russia is doing everything to make the current war a new big war for Ukraine and Ukrainians.

No matter how apolitical you are, it's hard to hide in the void of everyday comfort when that void doesn't exist. No matter what kind of person you consider yourself to be, it is hard to ignore the fact that you are willing to be killed for your nationality.

It no longer takes six handshakes to meet the family of a fallen soldier. Volunteering stopped being the exception and became the rule.

Hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the trenches. Millions of their relatives are in the background without power. In such a situation, the language of your lullabies and the authorship of the books in the home library already lose their meaning. Differences become secondary, and the past goes to the periphery when the time

However, nothing surprising. Moscow was convinced of the artificial Ukrainian state for so long that it did not consider it necessary to study it. Even the experience of 2014 did not lead to the emergence of expertise in Russia on the Ukrainian issue. The Kremlin has never learned to evaluate our country soberly and without ideological glitter. In Russia, Ukraine was initially considered something clearly understandable and uncomplicated, so relatives near Zhytomyr, walks on Khreshchatyk or a vacation in Odessa were considered a pass for experts and a ticket to TV channels. Eventually, slogans were replaced by analysis, and hat-tossing by expertise.

 

Perhaps Moscow thinks that time is still on Russia's side. That the fatigue of the Ukrainian background will accumulate. That the current solidarity of citizens is encouraged by victories at the front, and winter time can turn the war into a positional war. That sooner or later the conflict with the enemy and its agents can turn into its own "witch hunt". Russia probably sees the current aggregate state of Ukraine as an exception — and hopes that concentration will give way to resentment and apathy.

 

It would be a mistake to let her convince herself of the correctness of such a prediction. Yes, winter risks freezing the intensity of the army's advance. Yes, frosts can slow down the infrastructure rebuilding period. "The hardest winter in our history awaits us, but it promises to be the most important winter in our history. It is important not to forget where the enemy is. Regardless of how the announcers of Radio "Žiznj" tried to present it.