Lukashenko's war for survival
The main consequence of the change in foreign policy in Minsk is the critical strengthening of dependence on Russia, to the extent that some analysts have started talking about the loss of a significant part of sovereignty, or even about the actual "occupation" of Belarus.
The political crisis of 2020, caused by election theft and protests, as well as support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022, completely changed the foreign policy of Belarus. These changes were much deeper than the change in the foreign policy course and led to the restructuring of the entire country and its role in the region. The crisis affected relations with all neighbors, except Russia, which became not only tense, but also hostile. At the same time, dependence on Russia has crossed a critical level. Foreign policy differs less and less from Russian, which even raises the question of the possibility of preserving Belarus as a sovereign state. If some "benefits" from the war can be defined for Russia, at least in the acquisition of territory, the realization of ambitions as a superpower, then for Belarus the total economic benefits are completely disproportionate to the risks and challenges for statehood and economic sustainability, regardless of the outcome of the war.
The 1994 constitution cemented the provision that Belarus "strives neutrality" (repealed in 2022). Belarus has attempted to mediate peace initiatives such as the Minsk Group on Nagorno-Karabakh, the 2014 Minsk Agreements, and several others.
A channel for bypassing sanctions
Belarusian authorities have also tried to use "situational neutrality" to obtain additional economic benefits. After the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, Belarus built a system to circumvent Russian restrictions on the supply of Georgian goods and services. Similar practices existed during the cooling of Moscow's relations with Moldova, Ukraine and other countries. After the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, Belarus became an important channel for the delivery of sanctioned goods and services from Europe and Ukraine to Russia and vice versa.
It seemed that not only the desire for "neutrality" and the avoidance of conflict was important for national identity, but the authorities themselves saw it as the main foreign policy strategy. Such a "peaceful" foreign policy was destroyed in 2020 and 2022. The Western and Belarusian understanding of the cause is different, but it is a fact.
The breakdown of relations with the West and the reformation of foreign policy began in 2020. After the stolen elections, Western countries did not recognize Lukashenka as the legally elected president, but supported the democratic forces, including providing asylum to the main opposition leader Svetlana Tihanovska. On that occasion, limited sanctions were applied, which affected certain government officials, as well as several companies that did not have a great symbolic meaning and could not significantly influence the authorities. In the spring of 2021, a year before the start of the war in Ukraine, the situation seemed to have stabilized. Protests were suppressed, opposition political activity was displaced from the country, and the EU was very reluctant to respond to calls for additional measures.
Sanctions and retaliation
However, Lukashenko suddenly decided to direct his displeasure at his western neighbors and EU citizens, which brought the conflict to a whole new level. On May 23, 2021, the Ryanair civilian plane was forced to land in Minsk under the threat of military aviation. The reason was that opposition blogger Roman Protašević was on the plane, but the EU, like Ukraine, considered this a threat to its citizens flying through Belarus and banned Belarusian planes from using its airspace and imposed additional sanctions. Lukashenko responded with a massive campaign of arrests and destruction of civil society and media structures, whether those affiliated with the West or those with an independent position. In parallel, the Belarusian authorities decided to exert direct pressure on neighboring countries, initiating a migration crisis on the border with Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. As a result, tens of thousands of migrants from Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries in Asia and Africa began to push towards the EU border.
The only question that remains is whether Lukashenko knew about Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to attack Ukraine in the summer of 2021. Probably so, but in any case, Minsk's behavior and confidence were extremely arrogant. As a result, significant sectoral sanctions were introduced during 2021 instead of symbolic sanctions against officials and individual companies. Support for Russia's war against Ukraine was a new step in the escalation. The Belarusian authorities provided the territory and infrastructure: for the Russian attack on Kiev, the launch of missiles in Ukraine (until the fall of 2022), the training and treatment of Russian soldiers. Other forms of support for Russia exist in the informational and diplomatic domains, as well as in the recruitment of volunteers for the Russian side.
The reaction of Ukraine and Western countries is well known: comprehensive international sanctions (thousands of different restrictions), suspension of cooperation, freezing of assets (in Ukraine), difficult financial operations, cancellation of aid programs, closure of transit routes (including the use of the most convenient ports in the Baltic countries), closure border crossings, etc.
How did it affect foreign policy? First, dependence on Russia is growing: up to 60-70 percent of trade turnover, most of logistics, up to 80 percent of loans. Also, dependence on Russian technology, defense and industrial projects, weapons supply, military education, cyber security is growing... In relations with the West, we see a deeper degradation and destruction of bilateral relations, and the situation is only getting worse, and the correction of the situation depends less and less on Minsk, more since the war in Ukraine. Any independent attempt to improve relations, of course, will be judged by Russia as treason with a consequent fierce reaction.
Turning to the East
Minsk places special hopes in the development of relations with other countries of the world (Global South). Minsk declared it a "turn to the East". The strategic goal is to find a replacement for the West as a market and source of technology, as well as to find new political partners and military allies, which will balance the influence not only of the West, but also of Russia. Special hopes are placed on China as a new world superpower. Indeed, economic and political relations with China have reached a new level, and initiatives have been launched to develop relations with Latin America, Asia (especially Iran) and Africa.
It could be said that the countries of the Global South, and especially China, managed to partially compensate for the losses from relations with the West, but not to eliminate them completely. In addition, poor relations with the West significantly limit the possibility of cooperation with distant countries, as they regularly face restrictions and risks of secondary sanctions. Relying on countries that are in conflict with the West (like Iran) is clearly not enough. In conclusion, it can be said that participation in the war led to a profound transformation of foreign policy. The main consequence was a critical strengthening of dependence on Russia, to the extent that some analysts began to talk about the loss of Belarus' external political autonomy, or the loss of a significant part of sovereignty, or even the actual "occupation" of Belarus by Russia.
Dependence has indeed become hypertrophic, completely changing not only foreign policy, but also economics and domestic politics. And the possibility of redefining relations with the outside world has significantly decreased. The very development of the country is becoming more and more dependent on external factors such as the war in Ukraine and the economic situation in Russia. Relations with the West experienced a real collapse. This applies not only to sanctions, but also to the severance of relations in most areas, the severance of logistical links, technological isolation, hostility at the border, which leads to significant negative consequences. The Belarusian authorities are trying to compensate for the negative consequences with more active contacts with the Global South. The effect is partial. And it is unlikely that these countries will be able to become a complete replacement.