Kursk Nuclear Power Plant: The Newest Target for Russian Disinformation
In the wake of Ukrainian advances into Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has sought to capitalise on fears around nuclear safety by spreading unsubstantiated claims that the Kursk nuclear power plant is at risk of attack from Ukraine.
The recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast has raised concerns over the potential risks to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), with Russia endeavouring to paint a picture of the KNPP as being in imminent danger from Ukrainian military attack. Yet, Moscow’s accusations that Ukraine is planning to target the KNPP have had no grounding in evidence. Instead, the Russian narrative appears to be yet another effort by Moscow to leverage nuclear safety and fears of a nuclear accident for political operational gain in its war against Ukraine. As it stands, there is little operational or strategic incentive for Ukraine to threaten the safety of the facility.
More of the Same
Since the start of Ukraine’s advance into Kursk Oblast several weeks ago, Russia has been raising alarm over apparent – and unsubstantiated – Ukrainian intentions to attack the KNPP. On 17 August, Russian nuclear state enterprise Rosatom and the Russian Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of planning to attack both the KNPP and the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in a series of false flag attacks. A few days later, Russia reported finding remnants of a drone on the territory of the KNPP, which Vladimir Putin attributed to an attempted Ukrainian attack on the plant. Ukraine has, for its part, denied any plans to target the facility, calling Russian claims ‘insane’ and noting that ‘Ukraine has no intention or ability to take any such actions’.
Following an invitation from Rosatom CEO Alexey Likachev, and citing ‘the serious situation’, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi travelled to the KNPP on Tuesday. At a press conference following his visit, Grossi highlighted the vulnerability of the reactors and warned of the potential for ‘extremely serious’ consequences should the plant be attacked. He confirmed having been shown drone remnants at the plant but did not comment on who may have been responsible. While Grossi refused to attribute responsibility for any threats he perceived to the KNPP, the visit and Grossi’s comments are already being spun by the Russian leadership and media as validation of Moscow’s concerns that the plant is at risk from military attack by Ukraine. Russia’s representative to the IAEA, Mikhail Ulyanov, has called Grossi’s warning against attacks on NPPs a ‘clear signal addressed first of all to Ukraine’.
By focusing international attention on purported Ukrainian plans to attack the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, Russia will hope to gain some moral ground over Ukraine on the issue of nuclear safety
This is not a new tactic for Russia. Over the course of the last two and a half years, Moscow has repeatedly accused Kyiv of threatening the safety of the ZNPP, which Russia has occupied since the start of the full-scale invasion. In autumn 2022, Russia went so far as to accuse Kyiv of planning to use a ‘dirty bomb’ – claims that were investigated by the IAEA and found to be baseless. By focusing international attention on purported Ukrainian plans to attack the KNPP, Russia will hope to gain some moral ground over Ukraine on the issue of nuclear safety – despite Russia’s continued occupation and mismanagement of nuclear safety at the ZNPP – and to generate political pressure on Kyiv over its military activity in Kursk.
No Clear Intent
Yet, there are good reasons to take Kyiv at its word that it has no plans to target the KNPP. The KNPP is outside the range of the unguided artillery systems that Ukraine is known to be using in Kursk Oblast, whereas guided artillery is unlikely to strike the facility unless the plant is explicitly targeted or Russian forces interfere with a Ukrainian munition’s guidance in a way that affects its trajectory. As such, the probability of an accidental Ukrainian artillery strike on the plant is very low. As for intentional strikes, any attacks or military advance on the facility would make little operational or strategic sense for Ukraine.