Kremlin in a dead end. Why does Putin say he is ready for negotiations with Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference in Astana, where the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders' summit was held, that Russia, as before, is ready for negotiations with Ukraine and that it does not seek the destruction of the neighboring country.
Other Russian government officials also say that it is necessary to negotiate, and they blame the Ukrainian side for the failure of the negotiations.
Recently, the President of the Upper House of the Russian Parliament, Valentina Matvienko, called for consultations with Ukrainian parliamentarians. And when she got a rejection, she explained it as the "external management" of Ukraine. Why is Vladimir Putin calling for negotiations, if he is clearly determined to continue military operations? There are several reasons here.
The first is the desire to appear as a "peacemaker" in the eyes of one's own electorate. Russia, as its representatives declare, "never attacks anyone - only defends itself". And now the Kremlin is simply "forced" to start a "special operation", otherwise Russia would be attacked later - as Putin once again said at a press conference in Astana. Well, since such peacefulness is clearly manifested, then, of course, it should be accompanied by calls for peace negotiations.
The second is the desire to appease Russian partners in the "global south", which Putin also spoke about at the press conference in Astana. He acknowledged that there is clear concern in China and India about a prolonged war. This concern was visible to the naked eye at the meeting in Samarkand, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly told Putin that now was not the time for war. And Russian officials' constant calls for talks are meant to prove to Beijing and Delhi that their concerns are being taken into account.
The Russian opposition publication Meduza writes about the third, probably the most important reason. Its journalists claim that "the Kremlin wants to buy time and prepare for a 'full-scale offensive' in early 2023."
"Vladimir Putin will not give up on the continuation of the war - and hopes to use the possible ceasefire regime to prepare for a new offensive. According to his plan, the Russian army will manage to train the mobilized Russians during that time and at least somehow compensate for the losses in equipment", it is stated in the text dedicated to this not very complicated plan of the Russian president.
At the same time, even implementing such an ambitious plan faces Putin's reluctance to lose face. After trying to annex four more Ukrainian regions, Putin can't even show tactical flexibility. Any negotiations with Ukraine or the West will end immediately after the Kremlin demands recognition of the "Russian status" of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye in Ukraine.
Dead end
It seems that Vladimir Putin has convinced himself that he cannot independently change the borders of other countries and annex their territories, and the world must agree with this. This is one of his strategic mistakes. Because now he should show tactical flexibility and, in order to lull Ukraine's vigilance, agree to the withdrawal of troops or at least a ceasefire. This would give him a chance to prepare for a new attack.
But since such agreements were possible only by agreeing to the attempted Russian annexation, there could be no negotiations on ending the war. And without ending the war, the army cannot prepare for the defense of already occupied territories and the conquest of new ones. This is hopeless. And this impasse illustrates that all Vladimir Putin's talks about the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine are nothing more than words.