Is the end of the war near: how is the situation on the front line in Ukraine and where is the most critical situation

The Russian army continues a large-scale offensive operation, which has actually been going on non-stop for almost a year. However, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy emphasizes that the end of the war is closer than it seems.

As for the situation on the front line, there are indeed certain signs of approaching the culmination of the offensive operations of the Russians. The armed forces of the Russian Federation suddenly created situations in several areas that threaten to lead to a crisis of Ukrainian defense.
The statistics of combat engagements, which are published daily by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, indicate that the activity of the Russian army has increased significantly compared to August. The reason for the "relenting" at the end of the summer may be the transfer of part of the Russian troops to the Kursk region after the invasion of the Ukrainian forces there and, in general, the temporary disorganization of the administration of the Russian army due to this event.
At the beginning of September, the offensive efforts of the Russians continued mainly in three key directions - Pokrovski, Kurahivski and Vugledarski.
The peak was on the 2nd and 3rd of September, when around 200 clashes were recorded per day. In the middle of the month, the pressure subsided a little, but later it continued with new force. On September 20, the Ukrainian General Staff registered a record 217 combat engagements in different areas of the front.
In addition, the Russian army, looking for weak points in the Ukrainian defense, revived offensive actions not only in the south of the Donetsk region, but also near Kupyansk and Liman.

It's time to attack
This is the so-called "fle-up" tactic, that is, a sudden increase in combat activities in different areas of the front, Azerbaijani military analyst Agil Rustamzadeh told BBC Ukraine. The goal is to deplete Ukrainian reserves.
But the command of the Armed Forces has apparently already chosen the priority direction for attracting reserves, the expert says. And we are not talking about the Donetsk region or the Kharkiv region, but about the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. The introduction of additional forces stopped the Russian counteroffensive, which began here on September 10, according to Rustamzadeh.

"This made it possible to stabilize and stop the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, but it had to be paid for by the fact that the lack of reserves and weapons of the Armed Forces allows the Russian army to advance in the east of Ukraine, especially in the southern part of the Donetsk front".
It is here, in certain narrow areas, that the Russian army creates a significant advantage in manpower and firepower. This allows the Ukrainian defense to move back, the analyst notes.
This offensive cannot be expected to diminish in the near future.
On the one hand, this leads to the opinion of many military analysts that the Kremlin will try to achieve maximum success on the front in the next month and a half, that is, until November. Then the American presidential elections will be held, which will largely determine the level of Western military support for Kiev.
Also, at the end of autumn in the east of Ukraine, worsening weather conditions can be expected, especially rainy weather and frost, which also significantly complicates offensive operations.
"When the bad weather starts, even an ordinary soldier will not be able to move through the field, he will be in mud up to his knees. Then the situation on the front will turn into artillery duels," explained military expert Petro Chernik, reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force.
However, Agil Rustamzadeh is more skeptical about this. He reminds that in previous years, the autumn-winter period did not represent a significant obstacle for the conduct of offensive operations by both sides.
"This is already the third fall of this war and, as we can see, the weather or the situation in the environment affects, of course, the pace and scope of the operation. But to say that it stops them completely is not correct".
Chernik is sure that by that time, the Russian army will obviously not have time to fulfill the Kremlin's task of entering the administrative borders of the Donetsk region.
This is explained by the fact that, despite the difficult situation on the front, it did not become "critical" anywhere, that is, there was no rapid penetration of the defense to a depth of 10 to 15 kilometers, the expert points out.
Even retreating in certain areas or being in a semi-encirclement, Ukrainian units do not allow the defense to collapse or the borders to be critically weakened, Chernyk noted.
However, the most difficult situation arose at once in several areas of the front.
"I would recommend our civil society to be morally and psychologically ready for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from Selidovo, Torecko and Vugledar," stresses Kostjantin Mashovets, a military analyst of the "Resistance Information" group.
He believes that this is a "very likely" scenario for the development of events in the near future.

Ugledar and Kurahovo
The most dangerous situation is near the town of Vugledar. It has been defended for two years by the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is obviously exhausted and tired.
At the beginning of September, Russian units managed to advance on the eastern flank of the Vugledar bridgehead and capture the village of Vodjane, as well as the neighboring mines "Pivdennodonbaska 1" and "Pivdennodonbaska 3". Both were used as military fortifications.
However, the failure on the western flank was critically important. Here, the Russian army managed to take control of the village of Prečistivka and push the defense forces to the north. Having obtained the operational area, the Armed Forces of Russia began to rapidly approach the route connecting Vugledar and the village of Bogojavlenka. It is a key logistical artery for supplying the Ukrainian garrison in the city.
In addition, the Russian army directly entered a residential building on the southeastern outskirts of Vugledar.
The American publication Forbes announced on September 25 that the units of the 72nd OMBr began a gradual withdrawal so as not to be in the environment.
However, on September 26, the press service of the brigade distributed a video in which their soldier, while in Vugledar, denies that he left the city.
"For now, despite heavy attacks and difficult circumstances, we are in place," declares a fighter behind whom constant explosions can be heard.
The town of Kurakove is located 20 kilometers north of Vugledar. This is a large logistics center of the Armed Forces and at the same time one of the main targets of the Russian offensive.
The situation here worsened at the end of August, when the Russian army, facing the Ukrainian barrier near Pokrovsko and Selidovo, unexpectedly changed its direction of movement to the south in the direction of Kurahovo.
The army managed to quickly overcome about 10 kilometers and occupy numerous settlements, including Memrik and Halitsinivka. This put the Ukrainian garrison, which held the defensive area further east, near the village of Nevelska, in a rather difficult position.
Russian troops began to surround him, moving simultaneously from the southeast and the north. As of September 26, the "throat" of this "cauldron" is only about 4 kilometers, which makes it difficult for Ukrainian units to withdraw.
Nevertheless, the Armed Forces still hold key strongholds in the direction of Kurahiv - the villages of Hirnik, Maksimilianivka, Kurakhivka and Cukurine.
However, the situation is still complex and largely depends on the events on the neighboring roads - Vugledarsko and Pokrovsko.
"Currently, Kurahovo is on the flanks in a relative environment. That is, if the Russians were to advance further in the direction of Vugledarski and Pokrovski, they would really have the opportunity to come to the rear and close the city of Kurahov in a ring. But at the moment, thanks to the Defense Forces, they can't do that," said the representative of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, Nazar Vojtenkov, on the TV channel "Espresso".

Pokrovsk, Selidove and Toretsk
Additional reserves, which the Ukrainian military command sent to the Pokrovsk and Selidovo region at the end of August, managed to significantly slow down the Russian offensive.
However, it is too early to talk about its complete cessation. In the past few days, they managed to cross the border along the Žuravka river in and near the village of Grodivka.
With great difficulty, the Russian army managed to move west and attack the villages of Nikolajevka, Kruti Yar and Krasni Yar.
 The situation in Selidovo is somewhat different. The Russians are trying to capture this city from the north and south, cutting it off from the main logistics routes leading to Pokrovsk and Kurahovo. Heavy fighting continues on the outskirts of the settlement.
Street fighting is already taking place in Toretsk, where advancing Russian units have previously broken through the front.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainians managed to regain several positions in the city.
"Geolocation images released on September 23 show Ukrainian forces advancing south along Central Street east of Torecko," reports ISW.
The tall buildings of Torecko make assault operations difficult, but the city is being destroyed more and more, the Russian aviation is dropping air bombs on the positions of the Armed Forces.
In addition, the Russian army constantly exerts pressure on the flanks. In particular, he is trying to make his way to the western suburb of Toretsk - Ščerbinivka and the northeastern one - the village of Dačna.
On the night of September 26, the residential area of Torecka was under artillery fire. Two people died. The head of the Donetsk regional military administration, Vadim Filashkin, calls Toreck "one of the hottest spots" in the region.

Liman and Kupjan directions
In the second half of September, Russian troops were reinforced in the direction of Liman and Kupjansk.
Here, the main task of the Russian Federation is to expel the Ukrainians from the bridgehead on the eastern banks of the Black Stave and Oskil rivers, thereby securing an important logistical artery - the Svatove-Kreminna highway.
In the summer and early autumn, Ukrainian units were able to carry out a series of small but successful offensive operations, especially in the Serebrian Forestry and near Novovodyansk of the Lugansk Oblast.
However, as the analytical portal DeepState points out, it is obvious that the Russian units brought additional forces here and chose a good moment for the attack - the rotation of the Armed Forces brigades.
"Unfortunately, in the last few days the enemy hit the junction of the brigades, which caused a local breakdown of the defense and the entry of the enemy into Nevsky. For now, it is known for sure that the main part of the village is controlled by the enemy," said the analysts.
However, the activation near Nevsky and nearby Makievka did not yet allow the Russians to completely eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern shore of the Black Stallion.
However, Russian troops are close to success 45 kilometers north of this part of the front.
Here they managed to break through the defense of the Armed Forces near the village of Piščane and quickly approached the goal of cutting the Ukrainian bridgehead in half on the eastern bank of the Oskol River near Kupjansk.
Before the water barrier, the Russian army must overcome about three kilometers in the direction of the villages of Krugljakivka and Kolišnikovka.
If they succeed, Ukrainian units near Kupjansk and further south near Borova will be in an extremely difficult position, and logistical supply on the east coast of Oskol will be extremely difficult.
"The main problem of the defense forces here is the traditional one — the lack of men and means of destruction. Added to them is the reluctance of some generals to straighten the line for more effective defense with available means," according to DeepState analysts.
According to their data, on September 26, the Russians launched a powerful attack near Piščan. It was about 50 units of military equipment with landing forces on board.
But the Ukrainian troops managed to repulse the attack.
Analyzing these events, DeepState concludes that the Russian command has prioritized this part of the front and will try to repeat such a massive offensive on the eastern coast of Oskol.
In its summaries, the Ukrainian General Staff calls the situation "tense" only at Pokrovsky and Kurakhov. At the same time, he notes the increase in fighting in recent days in the direction of Kupjan and Liman.