Indifference and fear: how the war has changed Russians

"Russia and the World: Enemies, Competitors, Partners." The title of the study by the Moscow-based Levada Center, commissioned by the German Sakharov Society (Deutsche Sacharow Gesellschaft), at first glance seems like an attempt to show the evolution of Russia's relations with the world. The question immediately arises: has a trend towards partnership emerged against the backdrop of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine? So far, there is no basis for this, the prospects are not rosy, Lev Gudkov, deputy director and scientific director of the Levada Center, made it clear at the presentation of the study on January 27 in Berlin. It is based mainly on data obtained through face-to-face surveys in February, August, and October and November 2025.

Who do Russians consider an "enemy" and who a "friend"?

The top five countries that Russians surveyed consider hostile as of October 2025 are Poland and Lithuania - 62 percent. They are followed by Great Britain, Germany (50 percent) and Sweden.

"European countries are perceived as a threat to Russia's existence," Gudkov said.

At the same time, according to him, these same countries were considered an example for development in the 1990s.

Approximately one in four Russians considers the United States an enemy. This figure fell after Donald Trump was elected to a second presidential term. According to Gudkov, many Russians pinned their hopes on him to end the war in Ukraine, and there was a sharp increase in the popularity of the head of the White House, but by the end of the year these expectations were not met, and the indicators are gradually returning to their previous level.

Lev Gudkov noted that during four years of large-scale war, most Russians, under the influence of propaganda, clearly developed a hostile attitude towards Western countries. One of Gudkov's memorable phrases is: "People are not able to adequately evaluate rhetoric." This sounds like Kremlin propaganda, if not omnipotent, then close to it.

The list of countries perceived as "friendly" or "partner" is led by Belarus (around 80 percent), followed by China (around 60 percent). About a third of respondents named Kazakhstan, India and North Korea.

Is Russia a European country?

Before the great war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, politicians in Germany often said that "Russia is a European country", explaining this, among other things, by the desire to develop relations with Russia. Now this phrase is heard less and less often and causes a resonance. This was the case when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocated "equalization, balance" with Moscow after the end of the war in January 2026. And what is the mood in Russia itself?

When asked "Do you consider Russia a European country" in October 2025, about 60 percent of respondents answered "no", while less than 40 percent supported this thesis. For a third of Russians, Europe is "just a geographical name for the countries west of Russia", and this figure has doubled since 2020. 42 percent consider Europe "another civilization, a foreign world". This figure has increased by 11 percentage points in five years.

War with Ukraine: There is fatigue, no willingness to make concessions

Although the war with Ukraine was not at the center of the survey, most of the questions of those who came to listen to Gudkov in Berlin were asked about it. The deputy head of the Levada Center said that support for the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine has practically not changed in four years - 76 percent, according to the January survey.

This indicator does not seem to be significantly affected by the losses that shock Western leaders. Thus, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking in Berlin in December, repeated the figure several times - more than a million dead and wounded Russian soldiers. Lev Gudkov said that in Russia the topic of losses is "taboo", and the attitude towards the dead and wounded is ambiguous. He explained this by the fact that many of them are former prisoners and mercenaries. According to the sociologist, sympathy is more likely for those who were forcibly mobilized.

Neither economic problems, since many have become rich in the war, especially in the provinces of the Russian Federation, nor the attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory, which have become more frequent, affect the level of support for the war among Russians. As Gudkov noted, this has increased "anxiety and fear" among residents of the border regions, but has also led to an increase in "aggression towards the Ukrainian side".

And do Russians know what suffering the Russian army is bringing to the people of Ukraine, do they feel guilt and sadness, asked Gudkov's host of the event, German journalist Sabine Adler.

The sociologist's answer: they know little, they don't really want it, and about one in ten (eight to 10 percent of respondents) feels a sense of responsibility and guilt because of it. According to him, "indifference and suppression of thoughts" about the war prevails among Russians.

Lev Gudkov noted that in general, "psychological fatigue" from the war is growing, and 66 percent of respondents are in favor of peace negotiations, but on Russia's terms. At the same time, from a quarter to a third are in favor of continuing hostilities "to a victorious end." In Ukraine, sociologists periodically ask what concessions they are willing to make to end the war. Employees of the Levada Center also ask this question. And in response, according to Gudkov, they hear an echo of the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin - "no concessions."

Why does Gudkov not believe in rapid changes in Russian society "after Putin"?

In this context, the deputy director of the Levada Center is pessimistic. In Berlin, Gudkov suggested that Russia could continue the war in the next two years, while public sentiment is relatively stable, and social protests are "at the lowest level in the entire observation period."

Lev Gudkov does not expect a rapid democratization of Russia even in the event of a change of government and the resignation of President Putin. When asked what will happen "after Putin", he smiled wearily and quoted the words of the center's founder, Yuri Levada, from a conversation in the early 2000s: "We won't be able to invest in 120 years." Gudkov believes that the current system in Russia is stable, "the culture of violence will reproduce", and qualitative changes in Russia can be expected in two generations at the earliest.