If Ukraine falls, Moldova and the Western Balkans are next

The West does not want the complete collapse of Russia, because that would benefit its opponents, above all China, which will not allow Putin to be defeated by NATO weapons in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has entered the third phase. The Ukrainian counter-offensive did not produce the expected results, disagreements in the positions of the leadership in Kiev became more obvious, and geopolitical circumstances are changing in the world, which can affect the course of this war.

Western media are flooded with skepticism and disappointment, they are trying to find the culprits for unrealistic expectations and to lay the blame for a priori belief in the announced victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Because many were sure that by winter the Ukrainian army would wedge its way to the Sea of ​​Azov and liberate a large part of the territory occupied by Russia.

Kiev blames the USA and the EU for not delivering modern weapons on time and in sufficient quantity, while the West blames Kiev for delaying the start of the counteroffensive and doing many things on its own, without respecting the advice of its military allies.

Different views of the war in Ukraine

While Russia is always focused on one goal, to destroy Ukraine, the West has an unclear plan in this war. The USA and the EU were ready to surrender Ukraine from the very beginning. Then, in fear of Moscow's reaction and the "third world war", they hesitantly and gradually armed Kiev, but each time only after the brutal killing of Ukrainian civilians.

When Ukraine did not fall in three days, not even in three weeks, it is unclear what the West had in mind with the position - "we will support Ukraine as long as necessary". Does this mean that Ukraine will be provided with weapons to defend itself or that it will do everything to defeat its wicked neighbor in this war.

Only Great Britain was clear - Russia must be militarily defeated in Ukraine.

However, the West took upon itself the great burden of arming and providing financial support to Ukraine, in order to maintain some sort of stability in that country. Without the USA and the EU, the fighting would take place near Lviv, and Europe would be flooded with 30 million Ukrainian refugees.

On the other hand, judging by recent articles from The Economist, The Washington Post and Newsweek, the West had its own view of a short Ukrainian counter-offensive and fighting with more technical damage and more Ukrainian blood spilled.

Certainly, Kiev was not ready for such a sacrifice. And anyway, the whole world is saying that Ukrainians are paying with their lives for the generally thoughtless policies of the West in the post-Cold War period. And now also Western advice on how to perish, and "maybe" win.

Russia opens a chance to the global south

The first sign that the more difficult part of the clash with Russia was to follow was in April, when the public was shaken by the scandal of leaking information from the Pentagon about the preparations of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Differences in attitudes and the old rivalry between the political and military leadership of Ukraine surfaced in November in the Western press, in the spat between President Volodymyr Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny.

The armed forces of Ukraine have outdone themselves. In the first phase of the war and fierce attack, they defended the capital Kiev and defeated the most elite Russian units. In the second phase, with enormous motivation and surprise tactics, they managed to liberate half of the territories occupied by Russia. The Russian army was fleeing, Putin was humiliated.

The third phase is the trench phase, both sides are already equally armed and cannot make a breakthrough.

That new phase of the war will be exhaustion on the front, in politics, economy and diplomacy. Strategically, Putin was defeated because he did not quickly collapse Ukraine and he dragged Russia into a wartime regime, with severe long-term consequences.

While at war with the West and opening a chance to the global south, Russia is following a path of uncertainty, which leads to the circumstances that existed before the collapse of the USSR. Neither then, nor now, the West does not want the complete collapse of Russia, because that would benefit its adversaries, primarily China.

Not even China will allow Putin to be defeated by NATO weapons in Ukraine.

The most determined in the fight is Kiev, aware that now is a historic chance to expel the arch-enemy and build a new Berlin Wall on the borders of Ukraine. But the "stalemate" on the battlefield, which General Zaluzhny talks about, indicates that the West will now even more suggest peace negotiations and some kind of localization or freezing of the conflict.

The third phase of the war - endurance and perseverance

Prolonging the war is Putin's strongest card. Historically, Russia has a vast experience of collectively suffering and perishing mercilessly. Since the annexation of Crimea, Moscow has been preparing for life under sanctions and a possible long-term deterioration of relations with the West. The Russians have internal resources, people, and the circumstances of the crisis of global democracy, which are used by authoritarian states, are in their hands.

Instead of using the fall of communism and the end of the Cold War to build a more just world order, the countries of the West rushed to satisfy their narrow interests without any obstacles. Neoliberal pragmatism has created conflicts around the world, the financial crisis of 2008 and other types of crisis management.

Instead of permanently solving issues, such as the state of Palestine, they entered into conflicts in Libya and Syria. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan gave Putin the green light to attack Ukraine. The Kremlin is aware that the West is economically and militarily stronger, but also that it is vulnerable to endurance. Lucrative politicians and their conformist voters from Western democracies fear direct conflict and quickly tire of empathy for victims.

The third phase of the war that began this fall in Ukraine is endurance and perseverance. The challenge is the continuity of support for Ukraine by the US and the EU in the 2024 election year and the conditions of war in the Middle East.

Persistence is the political will that, in addition to internal problems, the West also deals with suppressing Russian influence in the world, especially from Southeastern Europe - from Hungary, Slovakia to the Western Balkans. Otherwise, if Ukraine falls, let Moldova, BiH, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo prepare.