How would Putin's fall affect the Balkans?

The rebellion of the Wagner paramilitary, on which the Kremlin relied to a great extent on the Ukrainian front lines from the very beginning of the aggression, showed that even "steely Putin" is not completely secure in his position.

In just 48 hours, the situation in Russia changed, the troops of Wagner's fighters were moving towards Moscow, and many political analysts were already announcing the fall of the Russian leader, after decades spent in power.

Nevertheless, the rebellion of the members of Wagner was stopped, and Putin remained at the head of Russia, but now his position is still - significantly shaken.

The fact that behind this rebellion, which threatened to become a real coup d'état and even turn into a kind of civil war, was one of Putin's closest collaborators in the more than two decades that he has been in power in the Kremlin. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin's personal chef, friend and one of the most powerful oligarchs in Russia, eventually became the tragic figure, not only of the conflict in Ukraine, but also of the internal conflicts of the Russian political, security and military elite.

 

Who in the Balkans supports Prigogine

The conflict between Prigozhin and the top of the Russian army passed "under the radar" of Putin, but the attack on Moscow was the final straw. Numerous conflicts within the Russian military machinery, as well as the Kremlin's lack of political strategy, both towards Ukraine and the rest of Europe, have come to light.

Jakov Devčić, director of the "Konrad-Adenauer" foundation for Serbia and Montenegro, states that Russia is still losing some of its trump cards in the Balkan region:

"Russia's room for maneuver for cooperation with the countries of the Western Balkans has been constantly decreasing since February 2022 and the beginning of the attack on Ukraine. Russian policy towards the region is not constructive, and is increasingly destabilizing, which quite understandably leads to an aversion to closer relations with the Russian Federation among the countries of the region."

"The Western Balkans is economically undoubtedly oriented towards the EU, although Russia is still influential in the region as a very significant source of energy, and it is the primary pillar of Russian influence in the region. Therefore, we, the Western countries, the EU and the USA, must not allow Russian influence to spread here," adds Devčić.

Putin and Russia have a lot of support in the countries of the Western Balkans, primarily thanks to extremely strong pro-Russian propaganda. In its messages to the region, the Kremlin continues to

repeat theses from the 1990s - that "Western countries and the NATO alliance are responsible for the breakup of Yugoslavia."

There is no mention of the fact that Russia at that time sold and supplied weapons to both sides of the Yugoslav front, voted for the introduction of sanctions against FR Yugoslavia, and for years put pressure on Milosevic to reject several favorable international agreements. For a decade and a half, Russian propaganda in Serbia has been based mainly on the unresolved status of Kosovo and the position of Republika Srpska. The Kremlin often goes further, which is how the spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Maria Zakharova, criticized Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić last year.

"Comparing Russia during the special operation in Ukraine with the behavior of NATO countries towards Serbia in 1999 is completely inappropriate," Zakharova said at the time.

 

Russia's energy trump card

The question remains as to how the possible removal of Putin from the leading position in Russia would affect relations in the region, where practically all countries (at least declaratively) are in favor of European integration and membership in the EU. The biggest Russian trump card in the countries of the region is certainly the energy one, and to a lesser extent trade. The countries of the Western Balkans are directly dependent on the European Union for their exports, while the USA, China and Russia are present mostly in single-digit percentages.

We should also not forget the issue of migration - the vast majority of people from the Western Balkans look for work first in EU countries, and only then in the USA and the rest of the world. Although in the period between 2005 and 2012 it was also "popular" to go to the Russian Federation for temporary work (mostly workers from the construction and road sectors), a large number of them returned with bad experiences with Russian employers. Also, it is not known exactly how many citizens of the Balkan countries are currently fighting in Ukraine, on both sides.

Although the media in the region speculated on numbers ranging from a few tens to a few thousand "Balkan fighters", it is more certain that the numbers in question are around 100 to 150 citizens of the countries of the former SFRY. According to some reports, two Serbian volunteers were killed in Ukraine last year, while at the end of June this year, another Serbian citizen was killed, who is speculated to have been a member of the 'Wagner Group'.

Aleksandar Olenik, Member of Parliament from the "Together for Vojvodina" list in the Serbian Parliament believes that this situation cannot change overnight.

"The question arises as to what these eventual political changes in Russia would be, and what Putin's successor would be like. If the new leadership was at all oriented towards cooperation with the West, that would be the best, but that cannot be overlooked at the moment - I am not optimistic about that, and it is likely that Putin's successor will be closely connected both with the security sector and with various groups of oligarchs. As for Russian propaganda, it has been built for years, both by Russia itself, but also by all the authorities after Djindjic and until now, and it would take a long time for that long-standing propaganda to be 'dismantled'," says Olenik.

 

Who could replace Putin?

Experts and analysts have been pointing out for years that the Kremlin's political strategy in the Balkans is directly aimed at slowing down or completely stopping Euro-Atlantic integration, and protecting its economic interests, primarily energy ones.

Columnist Bratislav Dejanović reminds that Putin often plays the "Balkan card" in relations with the West.

"We should not forget that even before the start of the war in Ukraine, Putin cited several times the example of Kosovo, which received the support of the international community for a referendum, and compared it to the referendums on independence in Crimea and Donetsk. On the other hand, the Russian units were the first to withdraw from Kosovo, from the then international mission in 2003. The order for the withdrawal of the Russian mission was personally signed by Putin at the time, and today many 'celebrate' him as the protector of Serbian interests in Kosovo and Metohija.

It is certain that the eventual departure of Putin from the head of Russia would be negatively perceived first of all in Serbia, but also by some political circles in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. On the other hand, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia are now members of NATO, so it seems that Russian interest ends at their borders - at least the official one. For years, Russia has been actively working to prevent the entry of former Yugoslav countries into NATO, and this was especially openly done in 2019 in North Macedonia.

That opposition goes as far as criticizing international military exercises. Thus, in April, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "Russia will closely monitor the joint activities of the Serbian Army and NATO" - it was about the international military exercise "Platinum Wolf", held at the Jug base near Bujanovac, in the south of Serbia.