How two years of the Great War changed Ukraine, the West and Russia: when will the turning point come

On Saturday, February 24, the second anniversary of Russia's full invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke. He thanked the Ukrainians who bravely fight against the aggressors, and emphasized that the end of the war should be on Ukrainian terms - a just peace. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres also spoke about the fact that the time has come for a just peace based on respect for international law during the Security Council meeting of this organization, dedicated to the second anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine. But Russia, which in two years destroyed its military forces in Ukraine, which it had before the invasion, is not interested in a just peace and international law. And that is why the war continues. And in that war, as the head of the Armed Forces Aleksandr Sirski assures, in the near future the enemy will receive an asymmetric response even in the air. Experts shared the main conclusions and forecasts with the portal "Komentari" after two years of the "great war" (the confrontation itself has been going on since 2014).

The first phase of the fight against the Russian invasion is definitely behind Ukraine

The head of the platform of the United Coordination Center, political scientist Oleg Sahakyan believes that the main conclusion at the moment is that we are in the cauldron of a ten-year war that continues. At the same time, he emphasizes, Ukraine endured two full years of Russian invasion and did not allow the Russian Federation to destroy its statehood.

"And we have already won this battle. To this day, there is no reason to believe that the state of Ukraine will collapse under the pressure of Russia. All challenges to statehood are of an exclusively internal nature and are not critical at the moment. We have shown the world that the Ukrainian state does not exist just to exist. Yes the Ukrainian nation is not a goal, but an objective reality. We inspired the world, showed courage, created a history of victories that others wanted to join."

There are still many challenges ahead of us, emphasizes Oleg Sahakyan. But the first phase of the fight against the Russian invasion is definitely behind Ukraine.

"As for the Russian Federation, it has finally lost its global influence. And today, it balances at the level of a regional power with separate elements of the global one, and sometimes even slips into a dependent state. In the military sense - from North Korea, Iran, in the economic sense - from the good will of China or Turkey. After two years of extensive invasion, the myth of the greatness of the Russian Federation collapsed. She destroyed all the potential she had. Symbolic, economic, special service, political. It lost its influence in the West, which was still building the Russian Empire and the USSR. All this was clumsily burned by Putin's regime in the cauldron of this war," explains the political scientist.

At the same time, according to him, Russia entered the regime of a protracted war. Without giving up the goals of destroying Ukrainian statehood, shaking the world order. After all, this is the only way to revise the borders, to build a new world system in which the Russian Federation hopes to gain more space than before.

"If we talk about the West, it has evolved from perceiving the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been going on for 10 years, as a Slavic skirmish on the periphery of the West to perceiving the situation as a war in the center of Europe. Moreover, a war that brings a series of challenges to the world order, when the fate of, at least, European security is decided. And in 2024, the West is in transition to a new paradigm – the perception of the Russian-Ukrainian war not as a source of the mentioned danger, but only one of a number of fronts (including potential ones) on which the Russian Federation has already attacked the EU, NATO and the civilized world. There is a review. And the source of the problem is no longer the Russian-Ukrainian war, but Russia itself," emphasizes Oleg Sahakyan.

At the same time, the American leadership, taking into account the weakening of this country's aid to Ukraine in the democratic world in general, will decrease in the short term, the expert predicts. With the risk of stagnation in the future.

“All things considered, we will soon see Euro-Atlantic security become more Eurocentric. "Collective Europe will assume increasing responsibility in ensuring its own and global security, uniting around itself the healthy forces of the world," the political scientist is convinced.

 

The situation in the war is changing

Tetjana Popova, media expert, member of the Council for Freedom of Speech at the Office of President Volodymyr Zelensky, former Deputy Minister of Information Policy (from 2015 to 2016), adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2014-2015), shared this comment.

"The prime ministers of Italy (Georgia Maloney), Canada (Justin Trudeau) and Belgium (Alexander De Croo) arrived in Ukraine today. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also came. European leaders are posting video messages of support for Ukraine throughout the day. This suggests that Europe, against the backdrop of political vicissitudes in the US and the withholding of aid, is taking the lead in supporting Ukraine. She takes on a large part of the responsibility - providing us with finances and weapons."

In this context, the expert notes, Ukraine is starting to shoot down Russian planes en masse. And our drones are increasingly targeting important companies on the territory of the aggressor country.

“It seems that we are on the threshold of a turning point in the war. What we did not use at the beginning of the full Russian invasion (long-range weapons, massive destruction of Russian military aircraft, including the territory of the Russian Federation), we are now using. And that suggests that the situation is changing. On the battlefield, the Russians still manage to achieve some tactical successes thanks to "human flesh attacks" and more ammunition. But these are tactical successes. And strategically, Ukraine has more positives," Tetjana Popova is convinced.

Of course, she emphasizes, we need more help from our partners. Aviation is needed. And judging by all the statements, we will receive NATO fighters by the summer.

 

"Compare the situation two years ago - and now. We don't panic. We are hardened. We accepted the war. We have become stronger. We have become more confident that we will not only endure, but also win," emphasizes the expert.

But in Russia, she notes, there is confusion and vacillation. Ex-soldiers who have retrained as Z-bloggers, like Andrii "Murz" Morozov, end their lives by suicide as they discover the truth about their losses and then become victims of bullying.

 

"Putin continues to commit one heinous crime after another. Now Navalny is being tortured to death in torture chambers. This turns the civilized world against Putin's regime even more. Who is afraid to even give Navalny's body to his mother. Opinions are growing in the West that it is impossible to negotiate with Putin. He and his regime are absolute monsters. And the last illusions that it is possible to reach an agreement with the Russian Federation should be rejected - believes Tetjana Popova. - There are no more peaceful solutions. Ukraine should be given more weapons and ammunition. Put pressure on Russia with sanctions. I think the military defeat of the Russian Federation and its subsequent disintegration is becoming more and more acceptable to the West – and even necessary.”