Geneva GCSP experts present plan for ceasefire in Ukraine
A report by experts from the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) discusses how a ceasefire can technically be agreed in Russia's war against Ukraine. The New York Times has drawn attention to the document that was presented to interested parties.
A group of experts from the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) has published for the first time a 31-page document that details the technical details of how to monitor and implement a ceasefire along more than 1,200 kilometers of the front line in Russia's war against Ukraine.
The American media outlet The New York Times (NYT) drew attention to the document published on Sunday, March 9. It itself was distributed back in February through a confidential channel: at regular meetings in Geneva between American, Russian and Ukrainian foreign policy experts close to their governments, the NYT explains.
The buffer zone is 1,200 km long and 10 km wide
It is proposed to create a buffer zone at least 10 km wide to separate the two armies and assign 5,000 civilians and police to patrol it.
About 10,000 foreign troops may be needed to guarantee the safety of these observers. The observers are to report on compliance with the ceasefire and whether heavy weapons have been moved to an agreed distance from the buffer zone. It is assumed that the mission will operate under a United Nations (UN) mandate.
In addition, the document envisages the work of international observers with a joint commission consisting of representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. Through this commission, both sides could hold each other accountable and negotiate on issues related to the release of prisoners, demining and the creation of civilian corridors through the buffer zone.
Representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United States and the European Union participated in the preparation of the document.
According to Thomas Greminger, director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, the experts who participated in the preparation of the document are representatives of international organizations and former military commanders with experience in mediating peace in conflicts. All participants in the creation of this document worked on an anonymous basis.
"We had to be very discreet," Greminger emphasized, explaining that he organized "confidential conversations" between foreign policy experts from Ukraine, Russia, the United States and European countries.
According to him, the participants in these meetings, whose identities the director of the Center did not disclose, acted "in their personal capacity", although it was assumed that they would be previously informed by the governments of their countries and then questioned.
Putin is the biggest difficulty in implementing the peace plan
Many experts agree that the most difficult thing in implementing their proposals is the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin. They express skepticism about his readiness to agree to a ceasefire and adhere to the agreed terms of a peace settlement.
"Russian officials promised almost before the war began that he had no intention of invading Ukraine. And no observer mission would be able to restrain the Russian president if he decided to launch another invasion of Ukraine," the NYT writes.
"I don't think Russia would agree to something where Ukraine remains independent and sovereign, even in the territory it controls," Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the Institute for International Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, told the publication.