Frontline officers: what is known about Russia's losses in Ukraine until August

In just the past month, the Russian service of the BBC, together with Mediazon (proclaimed a "foreign agent" in Russia) and a team of volunteers, managed to confirm the death of 1,800 people, while not all soldiers, whose deaths were confirmed in the last month, were named date of death.

The number of people killed in repelling the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which we determined, is the most minimal estimate of Russian losses. This number includes only those whose obituaries mention the relevant circumstances of death or those whose dates of death coincide with the dates of the counteroffensive. The actual number of victims is definitely higher than the figures we publish.

We publish only those data that we manage to find and verify from open sources: official and media reports, posts by close relatives of the victims on social networks, and information from cemeteries.

 

 

In the first weeks of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a significant increase in casualties among Russian officers - especially senior officers - was noticed. This trend continues.

Since the start of the counteroffensive, Russia has lost at least two generals, 10 colonels, eight lieutenant colonels and 14 majors (this number does not include the 13 military pilots who died during the conflict between the Russian army and the private army "Wagner" mercenaries in Russia in late June).

The last time the senior officers of the Russian army suffered such significant losses was in the first months of the invasion of Ukraine.

Increasing losses among commanders indicate that the handling of responsible tasks in the Russian army still requires "direct control" and the personal presence of senior officers at or near the front line.

The actions of the officers can largely determine the success or failure of the defense actions of the Russian side, say experts of the Royal Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI). The loss of a large number of lieutenants and captains leads to a serious loss of tactical coherence.

Simply put, units start acting out of harmony, disrupting each other on the battlefield and exchanging fire between units of the same army. If Russian junior officers begin to act erratically under heavy Ukrainian artillery fire, it could accelerate the breakthrough of the front line, experts say.

In the first two months, the Ukrainian counteroffensive took place at a relatively slow pace. The armed forces of Ukraine must slowly and systematically break through the defensive fortifications erected by the Russians. Thanks to this, Moscow wins the time needed for training and replenishment of units.

At the end of 2022, the Russian army faced a problem: it urgently needed to compensate for the losses of the first months of the war, but there was no system in the background that would allow the recruits to be trained in the necessary skills and quickly form them into combat-ready units.

There was also a lack of modern weapons and equipment for new units. Mobilized and volunteers have repeatedly said that they are given rusted machine guns from long-term storage warehouses, as well as military uniforms with years of production from 1960 to 1980. Modern first aid kits or night vision goggles continue to arrive in the troops, mostly brought volunteers.

As of February 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense has begun recruiting and training a new wave of people for the armed forces. Prisoners brought to the front still play an important role.

 

Detachments in which convicts recruited by "Wagner" took part were withdrawn from the front line as early as June. But prisoners who have left prisons under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defense continue to take part in the fighting in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions.

According to relatives of those convicted, recruitment for the war in prisons continued in June and July. At the same time, the preparation time before sending to the front is reduced compared to winter.

“Mostly they were sent to be slaughtered. My brother was taken out of prison on the 18th of June, and on the 25th he was already dead. And where are the 15 days of training they were promised? It would be better if he served his sentence and was alive at home," a relative of one of the dead prisoners told the BBC.

In total, we managed to establish the names of 5,553 convicts killed in the war. Most of them were recruited by "Wagner". In the past two weeks, we managed to find out about the increase in the number of burials of the dead "Wagners" in cemeteries in Novosibirsk and the Moscow region. In total, more than a hundred new graves became known.

 

 

The total number of confirmed Russian casualties now stands at 29,217. This number does not include those who fought on the side of Russia in the units of the self-proclaimed DPR and LNR.

Since the beginning of the invasion, Russia has lost 2,306 officers in Ukraine. Including 854 elite command-level specialists (in this number we included dead officers of the Airborne Forces, Marines, Special Forces, Special Forces of the Russian Guard, as well as military pilots).

We assume that this general list of victims may contain at least half as many names of the dead as those actually buried in Russia. This conclusion was reached through a systematic study of the situation at cemeteries in more than 65 Russian settlements over the past 15 months.

The BBC's estimate of the total death toll has recently received independent confirmation. Mediazona and Meduza recently calculated the excess mortality of Russian men and concluded that Russia's total war losses by the end of May 2023 amounted to 47,000 men.

Consequently, according to the most conservative estimate, Russia could lose 60,000 people by August.

Experts estimate that another 210,000 soldiers were wounded. This figure is based on the observations of the US Center for Naval Analyses, according to which for every Russian soldier who died during the war in Ukraine, on average, about three and a half soldiers were wounded. According to the calculations of our colleagues, the ratio of seriously wounded to dead during this war may be 1.7 to one - that is, 102,000 people are seriously injured and will not be able to return to duty.

Accordingly, Russia's irreparable losses, taking into account those who were disabled due to serious injuries or death, may be at least 162,000 people. This is less than the numbers we gave in earlier publications, because we now use more accurate estimates of the number of seriously injured people.

 

 

Every third person who died during the repulse of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was mobilized (280 out of 870 identified dead).

In total, we know from open sources about the death of 3,086 mobilized Russians. 60 percent of them died after January 1, 2023.

The figures are the most conservative estimate of casualties among the mobilized, as we only take into account those cases where the death is publicly confirmed and when the status of the combatant can be determined.

Actual casualties among those mobilized could be much higher, as many reports of dead soldiers in Ukraine since October do not indicate their status. Because of this, it is sometimes impossible to understand whether someone served as a contract soldier, went to the front as a volunteer or was mobilized.

According to reports from the fronts, it is the special forces and volunteers called from the ranks of civilians who now form the backbone of the units of the Ministry of Defense participating in repelling Ukraine's counteroffensive.

The final number of losses on the Russian side increases significantly if the list includes those who fought against Ukraine as part of the military units of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.

As of December 22, 2022, the DNR authorities stopped publishing data on the losses of their military personnel.

According to open sources, at least 11,500 soldiers from the self-proclaimed 'republics' of Donbas were killed.

The number of LDNR soldiers whose relatives cannot be found continues to grow.

 

On social networks, the BBC found more than 8,400 messages and posts of people looking for their male relatives, who joined the armies of the self-proclaimed "republics" and had not been in contact for a long time.

Even considering only publicly available data, the cumulative losses of those fighting for Russia could exceed 80,000 dead.

The Russian Ministry of Defense last reported the total number of casualties on September 21, 2022, announcing the death of 5,937 people. After that, the military department spoke three more times about the death toll, confirming the loss of another 162 people.

In June, it became known that the Ministry of Defense of Russia approached the authorities of a number of regions with a request not to publish the obituaries of fallen fighters. We know about such requests to the representatives of Buryatia,

Tuva and Khakassia - regions where there are especially many losses. According to several media outlets, this was done, among other things, to complicate the monitoring of the death toll published by the BBC.

We continue to collect data on fallen military personnel.

 

 

Every day more and more new names of the dead and photos from the funeral are published in Russia. Most often, names are given by the heads of Russian regions or representatives of district administrations, local media and educational institutions where the deceased previously studied, as well as relatives.

The BBC, Mediazona (proclaimed 'foreign agent' in Russia) and a team of volunteers are examining this information and adding it to the list we have been keeping since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Confirmation of death is considered to be a publication in a Russian official source or the media, publications by relatives or publications in other sources, if they are accompanied by photographs of the funeral.

The final number does not take into account the losses of the self-proclaimed LDNR republics. However, if a citizen of the Russian Federation voluntarily went to war and joined the armies of these republics, it is taken into account.

The type of troop was determined according to the reports where the deceased served, i.e. according to the markings on the form. Mobilized, volunteers and prisoners are not separate branches of the army, but these losses are separated into a separate category to compare with the losses of professional (contract) units of the regular army.

 

"Other troops" include air defense, military personnel of RKhBZ, signalmen, doctors, ground services of the Air and Space Forces, Ministry of Internal Affairs, automobile and railway troops, as well as military police.