Freezing the conflict or sharp escalation: how Trump will end the war in Ukraine with "one phone call"

Republican Donald Trump is winning the race for US President. The vote count showed a convincing lead over Democratic incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump won 25 states, including all seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona), with 277 electoral votes out of the required 270. The Republican Party won a majority in the Senate, 51 seats out of 100, giving will strengthen the position of the president.

In his victory speech, Trump called himself the 47th president of the United States of America, promising to "fight for Americans every day and usher in a golden age for the United States of America." He thanked the American voters and admitted that being president twice is the greatest honor.

Foreign leaders have already congratulated him on his victory. This was done publicly by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French Emmanuel Macron, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. MFA representative Mao Ning spoke on behalf of China, who stated that China respects the principle of respect and mutually beneficial cooperation in relations with Washington.

 

Is the war in Ukraine coming to an end?

 

In his campaign speeches, Donald Trump constantly proclaimed the end of Russia's war with Ukraine, even before his inauguration, scheduled for January 20, 2025 at the Capitol. Allegedly, 24 hours will be enough for the Republican. He never announced peace terms, but hinted at a "good deal".

"I'm going to call two people literally the same night that my victory is announced: Putin and Zelensky... We'll have a deal within 24 hours," Trump said during a speech at the New York Economic Club on September 5.

While addressing voters and declaring himself the new president in Florida, Trump confirmed his intention to end all wars in the world.

It is significant that on the day the votes were counted, Zelensky signed laws on extending the state of emergency and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days, until February 7, 2025. Congratulating Trump on his election victory, the president of Ukraine said he was counting on strong bipartisan support from the US.

"I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the "peace through strength" approach in world affairs. This is exactly the principle that in practice can bring a just peace in Ukraine closer. I hope that we will implement it together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under the resolute leadership of President Trump", Zelenski emphasized.

In the Kremlin, they do not yet know about Putin's plans to congratulate Trump on his victory and remind that the USA is an enemy country for Russia. State press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmytro Peskov said that it is impossible to end the war in Ukraine in one day.

 

Is the war in Ukraine coming to an end?

 

"We have repeatedly said that the United States of America is able to contribute to the end of the conflict in Ukraine. This, of course, cannot be done overnight. After the victory, entering the Oval Office, the statements of American politicians and their tone change," he said. Peskov.

 

Political experts polled by Focus are skeptical of Trump's promises to end the war in a day or even months. In the near future, we should hope for the beginning of behind-the-scenes negotiations between the American and Russian sides, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, president of the management of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta".

Before his inauguration on January 20, Trump will get the warring parties to agree to negotiations. The new American president will first prefer a simple option — a front-line ceasefire.

"Ahead of us is a difficult game with the impossibility of quickly resolving the war. Ukraine's trump card is weaker than Russia's and is based on the preservation of the bridgehead in the Kursk region. If the question of reducing the army arises, we cannot accept the conditions of the Russian Federation up to the level of February 24, 2022 and leave weapons for deterrence, insurance against a new Russian attack," says the Focus expert.

Fesenko denied rumors that Kamala Harris was expected to win Bankova. The Office of the President (OP) was equally prepared for all outcomes, but some representatives of the OP were afraid of a reduction in military aid after the arrival of Trump. It is more likely that Washington will reduce financial aid, and the military component will become an instrument of simultaneous pressure on Kiev and Moscow.

"The ideal option for the start of informal negotiations is the end of November - the beginning of December. In the best case, the result will appear no later than the spring of 2025. The scenario of the continuation of the war is also not excluded," the analyst added.

 

Conflict freeze 2025, UN observers: future war scenarios

 

Trump has often spoken admiringly of Putin and said he would lead Russia out of its deepening alliance with China. However, few people in Moscow now believe in "a complete reversal of relations between the United States and Russia," sources told The Washington Post (WP) three days before Trump's victory.

Eric Chiaramella, a former White House official who works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is convinced that the new US president can force Ukraine to give in and make a bad deal with Russia to end the war.

According to Volodymyr Fesenko, the successful offensive of the Russian armed forces in the Donbass turned Putin into a supporter of the capitulation of Ukraine. Moscow has prepared a whole list of concessions that are unacceptable to Kyiv.

As the political scientist explains, agreeing on a ceasefire is extremely difficult from a technical point of view. There is no proper controller for the withdrawal of weapons, and the OSCE has shown during the conflict in Donbass its inability to monitor what is happening. The UN has the potential for that, but it requires a long voting and financing procedure, according to Volodymyr Fesenko.

The chances of freezing the big war from 2025 are increasing, but from a legal point of view, the war cannot be stopped because of Putin's demands to continue control over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson region, international commentator Maksim Jali emphasizes.

The US president has all the leverage to put pressure on Ukraine, and Trump previously demonstrated this when the $61 billion military aid package to Ukraine was "hanging" due to debates in Congress. But the question is how it will affect Russia.

 

Jali notes that the Russian conditions are unacceptable for both Ukraine and the US authorities. Recognizing control over four regions of Ukraine means Trump's diplomatic defeat. In case of an unwavering position of the Kremlin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive new types of American weapons and permission to launch rockets at objects inside the Russian Federation.

"The future scenario ranges from the freezing of the conflict to the escalation reaching the limit level due to Putin's intransigence," the expert added.

In 2017, Donald Trump showed his teeth to Russia: he lifted the veto on the delivery of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, introduced during the presidency of Barack Obama. The armed forces received Javelin complexes. Later in 2019, sanctions were introduced against companies involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the observer concluded.

Let us recall that the leaders of the leading countries of the European Union congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the presidential elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also congratulated Trump and called his victory "the greatest comeback in history."