Energy annexation: what will happen to Ukraine if Russia connects the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant to its energy system?

According to former advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, Petr Andryushchenko, a new transmission line that runs through the Mariupol district and connects the nuclear power plant to Russia is almost ready. A distribution hub with a compressor station has been created at one of the sites, which is an important element in ensuring a stable energy supply.

Andryushchenko notes that the process of connecting the station to the Russian grid could be completed within a few weeks. Such a move could be part of a broader Russian strategy aimed at using the seized power plant to supply electricity to temporarily occupied territories or even to supply Russia with energy. The new highway through Mariupol district plays a key role in realizing these plans, providing the infrastructure for electricity transmission.

 

Russia is connecting to the Zaporozhye NPP: what problems will arise?

 

According to Olena Pareniuk, a senior researcher at the Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants of the NAS of Ukraine, the main problem is that people who do not have the necessary experience work at the ZNPP.

"This is dangerous from the point of view that the people who are now working there are not specialists who actually worked at the Zaporozhye NPP. This increases the risk of errors in the operation of the nuclear power plant," the expert tells Focus.

Also, according to experts, six power units of the ZNPP have not been serviced for three years, which makes it impossible to quickly restore them. Now they need to be thoroughly inspected again and determine whether there are any defects and damage. Restoring operations requires a comprehensive check of all systems, which is an expensive and complex process.

In addition, restoring the ZNPP to normal operation is extremely expensive. And given that the international community does not recognize the station as Russian, this makes its operation illegal.

Although the radiation hazard is currently not critical, the occupation of the ZNPP sets a serious precedent.

"From the perspective of international security, this now means that nuclear power plants can be alienated, and this is the main danger. This changes the global attitude towards nuclear facilities," Pareniuk emphasizes.

She doubts the logic of Russia's actions regarding the ZNE, given the technical, financial and political barriers. She calls for vigilance and international pressure to prevent Russia's dangerous actions at the station.

Yuri Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies, expressed the opinion that connecting the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which is under the control of the Russian occupiers, to the Russian energy system is a technically feasible task that does not pose significant difficulties. In his opinion, to integrate the station into the Russian power system, it is enough to lay the main transmission line, which will ensure a stable connection and transmission of electricity.

"Currently, the Zaporozhye NPP is not generating electricity. One of its power units is in a cold shutdown state, the other is in a warm shutdown state, which allows the power plant to be maintained in a state of readiness for commissioning. It will take about six months to restore the operation of one or two power units, which is a realistic period provided that appropriate technical work has been started. There are few technical obstacles to starting the power plant, since there is a sufficient number of employees at the Zaporozhye NPP who can ensure its operation in a state of readiness," Korolchuk tells Focus.

 

How the Russian Federation can use the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant for its own needs

 

Yuri Korolchuk draws attention to the fact that there used to be a transmission line connecting the ZNE with the occupied Crimea, but it was damaged under unknown circumstances, which led to the cessation of electricity supply to the peninsula. He believes that from a geographical and technical point of view it is more expedient to lay a new main transmission line from Russian territory to the ZNE in order to ensure the integration of the station into the Russian energy system. This approach, in his opinion, will allow Russia to balance energy flows within its system and use the electricity that the ZNPP can potentially produce.

At the same time, he clarifies that the construction of the transmission line is not carried out by ZNPP employees, but by specialized services or contractors, which simplifies the organization of the process. This means that the technical infrastructure for connecting the station can be created relatively quickly if Russia attracts the necessary resources.

Korolchuk also analyzes the feasibility of integrating the ZNE into the Russian energy system. He notes that Crimea is a surplus region capable of producing more electricity than it consumes, so it makes no sense to direct energy from the ZNE there.

“Instead, electricity from the ZNE could be directed to temporarily occupied territories, such as part of Zaporizhia, Kherson or Donetsk regions, which Russia calls “new territories,” says Korolchuk.

 

However, the expert admits that the launch of the station is associated with certain risks, especially due to the military context and security issues. In addition, he emphasizes the importance of identifying specific electricity consumers. In the occupied territories, the demand for electricity has decreased due to military operations, the outflow of the population and reduced business activity. At the same time, some enterprises can gradually resume work, which creates some demand.

"An alternative to launching the ZNE could be the use of smaller energy sources, such as thermal power plants or gas power plants, which are already operating in the occupied territories," the expert concluded.

Recall, Ukrainian scientists warned that the occupation of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant will affect the timing of its full restoration. Most likely, the repair will take five to 10 years.

The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine expressed assumptions about the joint ownership of the United States and Ukraine over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.