"Elections" without elections: Russia's Crimean election "light patterns" for southeast Ukraine

How and whom they want to "elect" in wartime in the occupied Ukrainian territories, why the Kremlin needs it, what is common between the conduct of illegal Russian election campaigns in Crimea and in the occupied part of the southeast of Ukraine, what are their special characteristics - about this in the Krym article. Realities.

 

"Exceptional case": state of emergency and part of the territory - not an obstacle?!

 

According to Clause 4 of Article 7 of the Russian Law on Martial Law, "referendums and elections to state bodies and local self-government bodies may not be held in the territory where a state of emergency has been imposed."

Exceptions are cases when the decision on elections is made by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation "based on the results of consultations with the federal executive body, which carries out the development and implementation of state policy, regulatory and legal regulations in the field of defense, and the federal executive body in the field of security order established by federal law". In those cases, referendums and elections for state and local self-government bodies can be held both in the entire territory where the state of emergency was introduced, and in parts of that territory.

Innovations on "exceptional cases agreed with the Ministry of Defense and the FSB of the Russian Federation" were adopted as amendments and supplemented by a special federal law that entered into force on May 29, 2023 - after the events

of September 2022 and the publication of the results of fake referendums "on the accession of new regions Russia".

 

How and who do they plan to choose?

 

In Moscow, they believe that by "joining four new regions" within the administrative boundaries of the Ukrainian regions, Russia, although it does not control them completely, has nevertheless increased its population by 6.2 million people and its territory by more than 100,000 square kilometers. At the same time, the boundaries of the electoral districts in the occupied territories of the Russian Federation were determined according to the "actual line of hostilities" from January to April 2023. It is believed that all the parliamentary parties of Russia have formed their branches in the "new regions".

 

On September 10, elections will be held for "representative and legislative bodies of the new regions": Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions - in "legislative assemblies". The regional centers of Zaporozhye and Kherson remain under the control of Ukraine, so the corresponding "central bodies" will be formed in Melitopol and Henichesk. Voting will be possible only on party lists.

Taking into account the military situation, the State Duma presented and considered a draft law that gives the "new regions" special rights to organize and conduct voting. Local authorities will enable citizens to "vote not only on the basis of passports, but also on any personal document", and election commissions - to form extraterritorial polling stations (outside the region). In addition, voters will be able to vote using the Russian "Mobile Voter" system.

The Russian-appointed "Zaporizhskyi Izbirkom" has reportedly already formed a list of 16 territorial election commissions (TIK) and approved the numbering of polling stations. Since the beginning of May, only the list and quantitative composition of TIKs have been approved in "Kherson Oblast" - 14. "LPR" has also approved the list of its TIKs, there will be 31 of them. In "DPR" 36 TIKs have been approved.

The so-called "Russian executive authorities" of the occupied Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are already represented in the Russian Federation Council by appointed senators. "DPR" and "LPR", as Russia believes, managed to "form" two branches of government - executive and legislative, so they are represented by two senators from each.

It is foreseen that in all "four entities" the so-called "temporary acting officials" appointed by the Kremlin will act in the classic role of "steam locomotives" for Russian governors, at the head of the list of "United Russia" during the election campaign, and after the election they will give up their mandates . The "newly elected regional parliaments" will then vote for the head of the region. It is assumed that the "new MPs" will be presented with candidates proposed by the parties, and then approved by the President of Russia.

The next stage is the "elections" of deputies of the State Duma of Russia from the "new regions".

 

"Crimean tracing paper" for the occupied southeast of Ukraine

 

Professor of the Department of International Relations of the National Aviation University (Kyiv), international political scientist Maksim Jali told the Krym.Realia journalist that the Russian authorities will undoubtedly use "Crimean tracing paper" in the process of organizing and holding elections in the occupied southeast of Ukraine, especially since the aggressor has experience in holding elections in the occupied Donbass.

"Even in the conditions of the coronavirus pandemic, all technologies have already been tested several times. Here is another question: will the Armed Forces of Ukraine allow them to hold these elections? Of course, this is a specific marker and reference point for the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, which will try to prevent the holding of elections on as large a territory as possible through de-occupation. For example, parts of Kherson or Kharkiv regions that were liberated last year, maybe, if these territories were under Russian control, there would be attempts to hold those elections. And so it will be held where the situation allows - in those territories that will be under the control of the occupation forces, elections will be held there. Of course, it will all be fictitious: they will paint several areas, as they did in Mariupol in 2014 when the so-called "DNR" was created. From a practical point of view, it will have nothing to do with the current elections, but it will be an attempt to legitimize the occupying power and an attempt to consolidate the occupation through pseudo-annexation, in principle, as was done with Crimea after 2014," Jali believes.

 

"Krymskie lekala lite": "light version" for the south-east of Ukraine

 

Commenting on the events at the request of Krym.Realii, an expert on temporarily occupied territories and economy, co-founder of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies (Kiev), Yuriy Smelyansky indicated that he is ready to agree with the wording "Crimean samples", but on the condition that the word "lite" light version.

"In Russia, electoral legislation is comprehensive: federal laws, the constitution, referendum legislation. Two norms of the Russian legislation on elections should be highlighted here - it is forbidden to run for candidates who have the citizenship of another country. Today it is the citizenship of a "country hostile to Moscow". But every resident of the mentioned regions has Ukrainian citizenship. This nuance made it possible to say in 2016 that the Russian State Duma was illegitimate, because citizens who did not have such a right participated in the elections. In the Russian legislation, it is also written that not only those who have another citizenship can vote, but also those who have deposits, credit obligations or have worked, received a salary, etc. in foreign countries (they cannot vote - ed.)", the expert pointed out.

Jurij Smeljanski emphasized that the political parties of Russia, without which the elections are not held, include people on their lists who cannot be elected by law.

"Therefore, the entire composition of the State Duma must be considered illegitimate. If there are those in the party who are not eligible, then the whole list is illegitimate. The occupiers are repeating all this in other occupied territories - they are, first of all, laying the foundations of illegitimacy for the future," explained Smeljanski.

The expert conducted a practical study on the issue of the presence of representatives of Russian parties in the so-called "new regions". He learned that United Russia offices in Melitopol, Henichesk, Donetsk and Lugansk are listed on the party's website. However, no representative office has a specific address and contact information, with rare exceptions, an e-mail address is also provided. According to Yuri Smelyansky, "Spravedliva Rossiya" also has regional offices in "new regions" on the site, but there is no specific information, including contact information.

"By the way, an interesting fact for the Zaporozhye region - the representative office of "Spravedliva Rossiya" is located on Bohdana Khmelnytskyi Street! This is really funny. And on the KPRF and "Communists of Russia" websites there is no

information at all about the presence of the party in the "new regions". In this case, it is impossible to determine whether these representative offices are working. These are two parties that are supposedly represented in some way, but there is no comparison with the "Crimean models" - more than 10 parties. Now they want to hold elections just to hold them. The aggressor realized that there were no other options, but there was not enough time left," says the interlocutor of Krym.Realii.

Earlier in March 2023, the Russian political scientist from Donetsk Alexei Mukhin predicted that as a result of the "elections" in the regional parliaments, there will be former participants of the "special military operation" (SVO - as Russia calls the military invasion of Ukraine), and their largest representation will be "in new territories". In these territories, "the percentage of residents who have the experience of participating in special operations is much higher than in other regions of Russia," and "if "United Russia" finally gets two-thirds of the votes there, it will be an acceptable result."

 

According to Jurij Smeljanski, according to theory and practice, electoral districts are determined proportionally to the number of inhabitants, and the number of voters in the occupied territories is unknown and can only be determined after the population census.

"No one intended to carry out this census, and this is again an "easy" option. In Crimea, Russia conducted a population census on October 10, 2014, but data from Ukrainian voters was used even in 2016. In such a case, we can say that during the 2023 elections in the southeast of Ukraine, the occupiers will refer to the latest data of Ukraine. There is no need to talk about the actual number of voters: how many did Russia take away, how many did they kill, how many finally left? Second question, which territory? After all, the front line changes every day! It says that electoral districts will be formed, even if according to Russian legislation this is not necessary. Moreover, it is also illegal. Everything that needs to be done from the point of view of preparations for the elections, they will not be able to implement. In Crimea, they realized that all actions were illegitimate, but by holding elections, they first of all announced to the international community that it was "their territory and that they are holding elections." He won't be able to "get" more out of this. We do not yet know where the Armed Forces will be until September 10. The occupiers to some extent took into account the results of their actions in organizing and holding elections in the occupied territory of Crimea, as a result of which they themselves created the basis for declaring the elected bodies illegitimate, and on September 10, even the elections for the State Duma," stressed Jurij Smeljanski

The illegal referendums that Russia held earlier in September 2022 in the occupied parts of the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions were condemned by the international community and closed for Russia any possibility of negotiations with Ukraine.