Dubrovnik Games: The Declaration on Ukraine is not only declarative

Serbia is moving in the right direction, said US Ambassador Christopher Hill a few hours before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky landed in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik. Not long after Zelenski, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić landed in the city under Srđ, unexpectedly for some. And thus showed that Hill's optimism about Serbia's direction towards the West is justified, according to analysts.

Both the Serbian and Ukrainian presidents were in one of the most beautiful cities, not only on the Adriatic, as participants in the Ukraine-Southeastern Europe summit. The Croatian president was not there, because he did not receive an invitation, and some Croatian analysts believe that the reason for this is his "pro-Russian" attitude, that is, criticism of Western policy towards the war in Ukraine.

Zoran Milanović's absence is officially justified by formal reasons, that each country is represented by one official (Milanović was not even at the previous two summits, in Athens and Tirana). However, some HDZ officials claimed that Zelenski asked that Milanović not be at the summit (which was denied by the Minister of Police), while some Croatian opposition members wondered how it was possible that the man who "promoted a great Serbia", translated as Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić can be invited to that summit.

Vučić, in truth, was not even supposed to be at the summit at first, it was announced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Marko Đurić, while Vučić was "debating" whether to go, worried about the fact that the declaration prepared for the Dubrovnik summit "was made so that only Serbia would was the only one who has to say that she cannot accept it, because the introduction of sanctions against Russia is being demanded". In the end, Vučić broke through and arrived at Ćilipe airport, joining his colleagues from Ukraine, Montenegro, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia...

 

Harsh declaration and Vučić's changes

The declaration that was adopted is harsher than the previous two adopted in Athens and Tirana. Vučić, as in Tirana, said that he asked for certain parts of the declaration to be changed, which the media close to the Serbian president called "diplomatic dribble". Vučić said from Dubrovnik that he asked for changes in terms related to "military aid" for Ukraine, "occupation of Crimea", adding that "he will not impose sanctions on Russia". He also underlined that at the meeting in Dubrovnik, because the territorial integrity of Ukraine was discussed, he insisted "on respecting the UN Charter" and that "not when it suits someone and when it doesn't, and when it doesn't suit him - to get away as quickly as possible". adding that "Serbia is the best example".

 

However, the fact is that the sanctions remained in the declaration because it mentions the "importance of harmonization with the EU's foreign and security policy and the measures adopted in this regard". The occupation of Crimea is not actually mentioned, but the peninsula is referred to as "an integral part of Ukraine", just like Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, parts of which are now held by the Russian army, and it condemns "Russia's attempts to forcibly and illegally annex parts of of Ukraine", which are "a clear violation of international law, including the UN Charter, as well as Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity". Therefore, there is no such thing as occupation, but according to international law, illegal annexation is equated with occupation. There is no mention of military aid either, but it emphasizes "an unwavering commitment to the restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, while further providing Ukraine with comprehensive assistance in countering Russian aggression."

Given that the summit in Dubrovnik is completely on the line of Western politics in the current geopolitical clinch between East and West, which is reflected in the war in Ukraine, and cannot be further from the positions of Moscow, and the Serbian authorities, since the beginning of the conflict in Eastern Europe, have been trying to "balance " its foreign policy, Croatian journalists asked Aleksandar Vučić in Dubrovnik how long Serbia will "sit on two chairs". Vučić responded by stating that Serbia has "only its own, Serbian chair" while others can have theirs.

 

A game of chairs

Nevertheless, that Serbia will sit a little more on the Western stool lately, is the impression of the experts with whom NIN spoke, as well as some of Vučić's political opponents, and lately also of Moscow, because certain tones of disagreement from the Kremlin towards the policy have appeared of Serbia, which have been silenced so far.

As Branka Latinović, the former ambassador of Serbia to the OSCE and vice-president of the Forum for International Relations, told NIN, until Dubrovnik it was rather ungrateful to comment on whether Serbia was moving more towards the West or staying in the East.

"However, considering that President Vučić decided to participate in the summit, it is a clear, stronger signal that Serbia is still directed towards the West, that it is going step by step, but it seems to me that these steps are now accelerating. Is it it was the result of agreements and discussions that took place during Vučić's visit to Germany, some other events that took place behind the scenes, and then there was the statement of American Ambassador Hill, quite confident... And it is not so important, but this is the participation of President Vučić in Dubrovnik is a clear confirmation of the direction in which Serbia can be expected to move in the future, and that is the West," says Latinović.

And Duško Lopandić, a former diplomat and expert in European law, points out that "lately there are signs of Serbia's approach towards the West".

"That is, let's say buying the favor of the West, such as for example the purchase of overpriced "Rafal" airplanes, the business around jadarite, i.e. lithium, where we can say that Germany or the broader favor of the European Union is being bought. In addition, we can see Serbia moving when it's about the Russia-Ukraine conflict regarding support for Ukraine," says Lopandić and adds that the summit is not only a symbolic support, while the declaration is very strongly against Russia.

 

He also recalls the negative reactions from Moscow towards Belgrade, which are also significant, such as the comment of the spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova regarding the fact that Vučić did not meet with Lavrov in New York during his stay at the UN.

"There is a whole series of signs, in addition to what President Vučić himself said, although he says different things on different days, but I think we should observe the facts first, not so much the statements of our representatives," says Lopandić.

According to him, this can include the effort to bring Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to Belgrade, and that, as mentioned, at the time when the BRICS summit is being held in Kazan, for which Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Vučić public invitation.

"The arrival of the Polish prime minister is aimed at slightly loosening the very harsh relationship of the entire northern bloc of the EU, especially the Baltic countries, the Scandinavian countries, which are de facto blocking Serbia in the accession process, and which is again connected with the relationship towards Russia," explains Lopandić.

He also recalls the energy agreement between Serbia and the USA, which, among other things, refers to the diversification of gas supply and avoiding dependence on Russia.

"So, it is that set, which, when everything is put together, gives the result that there is this movement, but it can also be said that, considering the multi-year maneuvering of Belgrade's foreign policy, much more needs to be done in order to western statesmen, especially European ones, assured that Vučić is really sincere in his foreign policy, which is subject to change from one day to the next," Lopandić underlines.

 

The declaration is not only declarative

That the summit in Dubrovnik was not only declarative support, also claims the German Deutsche Welle, which states that "Ukraine is interested in arms from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina", and that companies from Bosnia and Herzegovina have exported weapons and equipment for more than 50 million

euros, which broke the record. Weapons and ammunition are produced in Serbia and BiH according to the Soviet standard, which is still dominant in the Ukrainian army despite the enormous Western aid, and shells for cannons and bullets for rifles are never enough in one war. It has been mentioned for a long time that ammunition is being exported to Ukraine indirectly, through intermediaries from Serbia, which was even mentioned in Belgrade by French President Emmanuel Macron, although the Serbian authorities deny this.

And that could be another concrete step in getting closer to the West, for which the pro-Russian (or anti-European) opposition in Serbia accuses Vučić, so POKS, for example, assessed that Vučić's participation in the summit of support for Ukraine in Dubrovnik and "a series of moves in the previous weeks and months", Serbia "permanently turned its back on Russia".

Since the policy of the government in Serbia is a kind of balance, it can be assessed that Vučić tried to soften his closeness with the West in connection with the support for Ukraine by claiming that he insisted that some parts of the declaration be changed. Nevertheless, despite this, the declaration is harsh towards Moscow and resolute in its support of Kyiv.

"This is not the first declaration, and the one from Tirana was very harsh. Those declarations are always adopted in some kind of consensus, so something changes there, but it does not change much on the general impression of the declaration and the policy that is currently being pursued. Sometimes not we can be sure what our authorities are really planning tomorrow and how long they will stick to one course, because it has been known for years that in fact the basic policy of the government is a kind of juggling act between various actors and that the basic weakness of that policy is that it failed to progress in what is our strategic goal, which is progress towards the European Union, it is practically a process that has been blocked for a long time," says Lopandić.

 

Juggling Vulin

Lopandić also points out that this "juggling", such as on the one hand condemning Russian aggression, and on the other hand sending Vulin to Moscow to talk about how we are allies, although it is complete nonsense, still leaves an impression in European countries.

"And I say again, what someone says is much less important than what they do in that sense, so I agree with the American ambassador that Serbia is moving in the direction of the West," says Lopandić.

And Branka Latinović believes that the most important thing about the declaration is its overall intonation, through which support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, its right to defend itself, to recover all territories...

"It is something that is generally dominant and that should not be surprising considering that Serbia voted for the resolutions of the UN General Assembly that had these strong elements, but also at the summits of the European political community," says Latinović and adds that it would not surprised that Vučić's participation in the summit was ultimately motivated by broader agreements, which would include Russia's interests in softening parts of the declaration.

Latinović explains Serbia's potential approach to the West and distance from Moscow by the change in the geopolitical situation.

"Each foreign policy of a country is adjusted and our interest should be decisive. Foreign policy has its pillars, but they are redefined according to the current geopolitical and security challenges. The fact that we have a war on European soil is something that requires Serbia to adapt with its interests, its needs and its defense interests. And Serbia is now clearly coming to a stronger redirection or adjustment of its foreign policy and interests in connection with a stronger turn towards the West, and this should not be surprising," says Latinović.

She also points to the fact that another geopolitical problem, the war in the Middle East, is also very close to Europe, and that in a geopolitical sense it is very connected to the Balkans.

"This new security environment requires you to adapt to it," Latinović says, adding that it leads to a more flexible interpretation of what the red lines are in mutual relations with foreign countries.

 

 

What will Moscow say and how much will gas cost?

According to her opinion, Moscow would tolerate Serbia's current position in this sense, but there remains a limit to not joining NATO, that is, to keep the course of proclaimed neutrality, although, as she adds, it is questionable how far this military-neutral status can be maintained in the current situation , since it is based on a resolution of the Assembly of Serbia, and is not defined by the Constitution or law, nor does it have any kind of international support.

Lopandić, on the other hand, believes that Serbia's support is important for Moscow, no matter how thin it is, because it has no allies in Europe.

Since the gas agreement remains a very important issue in relations between Moscow and Belgrade, which could also be affected by Serbia's turn to the West, Lopandić says that he is not entirely convinced that the current behavior of our authorities has nothing to do with the tactics of negotiating gas prices and vice versa, so that the Russians also use or abuse that topic in some way.

"But in the long term and viewed as a whole, Serbia is turning to other partners economically," says Lopandić and recalls the drop in imports from Russia and efforts to diversify the energy supply.

Latinović states that energy has always been, and now it has become a particularly important segment of international politics, and that it also influences our foreign policy. She says that Russia is in a better position in the gas negotiations, because the gas is its own, but that Serbia is not without arguments either, but the flow of Russian energy products is no longer so smooth and simple. She believes that the gas agreement will be the result of a compromise regarding the price and that she will be favored in some way.

"For sure, Russia will also take into account the echo in the public and how the public in Serbia would interpret all this and what would not be good for it," says Latinović.