Decisive autumn. What Ukraine and Russia have achieved on the front and what will happen next

The spring-summer offensive of Russian troops has not yet ended, but it can already be said that it did not live up to all the Kremlin's expectations. At the same time, Ukraine, which was on the edge of the precipice in the spring, is gradually recovering, but continues to suffer from the exhaustion of the army and the shortage of ammunition.

In the spring-summer period of 2024, the parties joined different countries. Ukraine is weakened by the lack of American aid, stalled in Congress, and has also had problems with filling the armed forces, due to the delay in the mobilization law. There was another change of leadership of the Ukrainian army.
Russia, on the other hand, managed, albeit with heavy losses, to capture an important Ukrainian outpost near Donetsk - Avdiyevka - and after a short break continued the offensive in several directions at once.
The Russians attacked in the direction of Pokrovsko, Časovo Jar, Kupjansk, Liman, Siversk, Vugledar and Kurahov.
In addition, they directed efforts to "cut off" the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kryniki in the Kherson region and to retake the territories near Robotinje in Zaporozhye.
The Kremlin opened two more fronts. In May, Russian troops invaded the Kharkiv region near Vovchansk and Liptsiv, and in June they began an offensive towards Torecko in the Donetsk region.
Russia has made progress in all these areas.
But on how successful this offensive was and whether it achieved its strategic goals, the opinions of military experts interviewed by the Ukrainian Air Force are divided.
However, they agree on one thing – the fall of 2024 could be decisive in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The main achievements of Russia at the front

During the spring and summer, Russian troops failed to capture any large Ukrainian city, but they managed to advance 35 kilometers deep in the direction of Pokrovsky, nine to 10 kilometers in the direction of Torecko, and improved their positions near Vugledar and Kurahov.

All this cannot be considered a strategic success, Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", told BBC Ukraine.
"The Russians planned a strategic breakthrough from Bahmut to Avdijivka and the capture of Ukrainian forces between them in the area of Torecka and Chasovo Yar. And then this large group of Armed Forces should have been defeated," the expert notes.
This did not work, so the Kremlin was forced to immediately change its plans and tactics.
"Instead of quick strikes and breakthroughs, the Russians switched to tactics of moving the front. It is much more expensive and does not produce the same results as a quick offensive. There is no exit to the operational space," says Lakijčuk.
However, Israeli expert David Handelman points out that in the reality of this war, the Russian summer offensive can be considered "partially successful".
According to him, after the fall of 2022 and the liberation of Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast, one of the sides will not have to talk about the rapid and deep penetrations of the front.
At the same time, he notes that since the beginning of autumn, the operational situation at the front for the Armed Forces "continues to become more difficult".
Ukrainian military analyst and historian Mikhail Zhirokhov says that the main successes of the spring-summer offensive of the Russian Federation happened thanks to the mistakes of the command of the Armed Forces.
The key is the loss of the Donetsk town of Oceretina, located between Avdijevka and Pokrovsko, at the end of April.
The next problem is the loss of the village of Progres on the same route in July.
"Ocheretine and Progres are mistakes of our command. The Russians simply took advantage of it. It is not their merit, as was the case with Bakhmut, where they "bit through" the Ukrainian defense," says Zhirokhov.
The analyst is sure that the culmination of the Russian offensive falls precisely in August - early September. During this period, the Russian army will have maximum capabilities, especially in equipment and ammunition.
This is due to the specifics of Russia's defense-industrial complex, which operates in six-month production cycles.
"That is, since July 1, the Ministry of Defense has started delivering a certain amount of weapons to soldiers. These reserves were accumulated, apparently, for August," says Zhirohov.
The main place of these efforts is Pokrovsk. The Russian army could approach this city at a distance of 10 kilometers.

But, notes David Handelman, the command of the "Center" group, which operates in this area, does not force an attack directly on the city, but competently expands its flanks, especially at Selido's, in order to protect itself from a counterattack.
The actions of the Ukrainian command on this part of the front are not very clear, one of the officers fighting near Pokrovsk told the Ukrainian BBC.
Despite the public statements of Zelenski and Sirski about the need to strengthen this direction, some units were withdrawn from here, and others were ordered to retreat deep into the territory and leave their positions without a real fight.
Probably, the tactic of the Main Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could be to impose a battle on the enemy directly in the urban part of Pokrovsk or on the approaches to it.
Azerbaijani military analyst Agil Rustamzade's assessment of the situation is somewhat different. According to him, both sides have unsolved "crises at the operational level" - in Ukraine on the Pokrovsky line, in the Russian Federation - on Kursk.
"So it would be wrong to say that either side has achieved a decisive advantage over the other or a strategic success so far," he explained to the BBC.
The offensive actions of the parties on the front will continue until winter or the beginning of cold weather, according to the expert.
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Successes of ZSU in the summer

The success of the Ukrainian army in the spring-summer period can be considered as holding the front despite the lack of men and weapons. The defense forces were able to contain the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv area, which began on May 10, and prevented a rapid advance deep into the territory.
For almost four months of fighting near Vovčansk and Lipci, Russian successes here are minimal, the front line barely moves.
In addition, it was during this period that the Ukrainian defense industry managed to increase the production of long-range drones. In terms of the number and regularity of their use, Ukraine even managed to overtake Russia. Russian defense facilities, military airfields, oil storage facilities and oil processing complexes are hit by drones on an almost daily basis.
The authorities speak of "positive dynamics" in the production of Ukrainian missiles, especially ballistic missiles.
However, all experts agree that the main event of the summer was the Ukrainian offensive on the Kursk region, which began on August 6.
This operation was unexpected, planned, fast and has already achieved certain results in the military sense.
David Handelman believes that Kiev decided to do so because of the unfavorable course of the defense operation in the direction of Pokrovsky.
He uses the analogy of a game of chess.
"You could say that in a strategic sense the task was to 'shake up the chessboard'. But the problem is that so far we don't see any pieces falling off the board. So far there is a good chance that they will teeter on the edge and come back ", the expert metaphorically explains his opinion.
According to him, it is important how long the Armed Forces will be able to hold the territory of Kursk and exactly how Moscow will decide to react to it.
Pavlo Lakijchuk agrees and calls the Kursk operation an event that "shuffled all the cards for the Russians."

Analysts from the British Royal Institute for the Study of Defense and Security Issues (RUSI) note that Kursk "changed the narrative of the war".
"Despite the military risk, Kursk successfully changed the narrative of the war. Whether this alone will be enough to keep the taps of international support open after the US elections in November 2024 will depend on whether Kiev can resist using it as a bargaining chip. element in the negotiations", the text published by the institute states.
According to the researchers, the Kursk operation raised the stakes. And they could be increased if other similar unexpected Ukrainian actions followed, for example, in connection with the occupied Crimea, they emphasize.

Pokrovsk, autumn is a decisive moment

The autumn of 2024 may be decisive for the Russian-Ukrainian war. This year, key military and political events fall in this period, says David Handelman.
It is about Kursk and the battle for Pokrovsk, as well as about the American presidential elections at the beginning of November. In the conditions of Kiev's critical dependence on American aid, the name of the new owner of the White House gains enormous weight, says an Israeli analyst.
Not everyone agrees with this.
"I would very much like to say that there will be a turning point this fall. But we have to accept the fact that this is a long-term war and that none of the opposing sides has a decisive advantage to make this turning point," believes Agil Rustamzadeh.

Mikhail Zhirokhov reminds that, according to his data, the peak of the capabilities of the Russian army will be at the beginning of autumn, and the Kremlin will do everything to take advantage of the situation.
There are still 1.5 to two months left, weather permitting, green plantings hide the movement of Russian infantry, and dry land facilitates the use of heavy armored vehicles.
"The successes of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk region will overshadow all other failures. I think that the task that the Russian troops were given to fulfill until November, when the rains start, when the "green" descends. This task is to go to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region", says the analyst.
And he gives a pessimistic forecast - the Russians will most likely complete this task.
The task of Ukraine to keep Pokrovsk in the current conditions looks difficult. Only one more non-standard move can help, as was the case with the Kursk region.
"I expect that Sirski's cunning plan will launch a new counteroffensive, because far from all the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine being deployed in Kursk. The logic of events is such that in the coming weeks the Ukrainians must strike somewhere. But it will be a 'miracle on the Vistula'." he says.
The "Miracle on the Vistula", mentioned by Zhirokhov, is a battle between Polish and Soviet troops from August 13 to 25, 1920. Poland, which was on the verge of defeat, not only stopped the Red Army, but also defeated it in a counteroffensive.
David Handelman also expects an "unexpected move" from the Ukrainian side. Otherwise, the loss of Pokrovsky this fall will create what he called an "operational crisis of Ukrainian defense."
The resolution of this battle will show the further vector of events on the front. Possible options include a "freeze" of the conflict or a new round of confrontation in 2025.
"There is such a principle - 'hens are counted in the fall'. And this year it is even more relevant," summarizes the analyst.