Coup in Niger: what Prigozhin is showing Putin

Colonel General Amadou Abdurahman, who headed the "National Council for the Defense of the Homeland," became the new "leader" of the state. Notably, the coup took place against the backdrop of the Russia-Africa 2023 summit, which Niger's representatives defiantly did not attend.

The second peculiarity of the situation was the demonstrative neutrality of some of the warlords operating in the east of the country. Finally, PMC "Wagner" has been implicated in involvement in the coup.

Let’s figure it out together.

From the point of view of the political situation, Niger is a rather unstable country in an unstable region. In addition to the jihadist attacks, there is a civil war (on the national-tribal principle) in neighboring Mali and Chad. The president of Chad in 2021 was assassinated in a battle with FACT rebels. Burkina Faso saw two military coups in 2022.

At the same time, the region is rich in deposits of the "big three" interests of the Russian Federation - uranium, titanium, and tungsten

, in addition to gold and nickel. But a significant part of the deposits has yet to be explored and developed due to the problematic political situation. And those companies that enter, as a rule, operate under the robust force cover of PMCs.

In the case of Niger, there was an attempt by President Bazoum to find partners among the countries of the "democratic world." But he could not get significant military or financial support for the first year of work – political consultations, discussion of reforms - yes. Practical projects to stabilize the situation have only been discussed and could have begun in the next year and a half.

On the other hand, in the last two years, Russia's presence has intensified. And the well-known PMC "Wagner" was responsible for the "security" and "development" of Russian business. Let's take the neighbors of Niger:

Libya: The activities of PMC "Wagner" on the territory controlled by General Haftar (the border with Niger, among others);

Chad: Two military coups, where, as a result of the last one, forces with experience of cooperation with PMC "Wagner" came to power (and the Russian PMC itself has claimed participation in the coup);

Mali: PMC "Wagner" fights on the side of some warlords (who agree to cooperate with the government);

Benin: President Patrice Talon openly states that the government has the right to use foreign PMCs, naming PMC "Wagner" as an example;

Nigeria: PMC "Wagner" protects the oil and gas production business of subsidiaries of "Rosneft" and "Gazprom." However, they share the "security business" with Lukoil-controlled PMC "Lukom-A" in this country.

The only country without a clear presence of "Wagnerites" was Algeria.

In addition, the Prigozhin-controlled company Lobaye Invest operates in all of these. This is a "legal cover" for Prigozhin's business. Militants are hired through it. But the same company creates joint ventures with local leaders to explore and extract minerals. The essence of the work I described in the text about PMC "Wagner" is that in January 2023: the work on exploration is paid from the funds of local elites and, in part, from the Russian Federation (as a rule, with the money of state corporations"). The beneficiary is Prigozhin.

If a deposit allows commercial production to begin, it begins with the above-mentioned financial mechanism. The minerals extracted are sold through Prigozhin's companies in Africa and the UAE.

After obtaining proof of the economic feasibility of extraction, the created joint venture "suddenly" goes bankrupt. A new one is made, where Prigozhin's structures are replaced by structures affiliated with one or another state corporation (most often in the sphere of interests of the Sechin-Alekperov and Kovalchuk groups).