Chinese Influence in the Western Balkans and Its Impact on the Region’s European Union Integration Process Part II

Security and Technology

One of the main countermeasures against China’s influence activities has taken place in the areas of security and technology. The impact is evident in China’s recent failure to make headway in its efforts to gain a foothold along the Adriatic coast, in Albania and Montenegro, and in 5G networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania. After the United States Department of State highlighted the risks of Huawei in 5G networks, and led “The Clean Network”, a bipartisan effort to address "the long-term threat to data privacy, security, human rights and principled collaboration posed to the free world from authoritarian malign actors".

With the exception of Serbia, all countries of the Western Balkans are signatories of The Clean Network, although Huawei has a large presence in the region, thanks to China's close cooperation with Serbia. Although Serbia is not formally a part of the "Clean Network", Serbian authorities did sign an economic cooperation agreement with Washington, in which they committed to prohibit the use of 5G equipment from "untrusted vendors". However, in this particular agreement there was no direct mention of either China or vendors like Huawei.

Serbia the strategic partner in the region

Chinese interests in Serbia are noteworthy. With the largest economy in the Western Balkans, Serbia has become Beijing’s go to partner in and a clear frontrunner in the framework of the 16+1. China and Serbia upgraded their relationship to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2016, the same year they signed a mutual visa-exemption agreement.

Relations between Belgrade and Beijing extend beyond economic ones, as Serbia has also signed a USD 3 billion package of economic support and military purchases that has boosted the Chinese influence in the country. Another important project is the Huawei-led installation of smart surveillance cameras with advanced facial and license plates as a measure to fight crime, raising concerns on the compatibility with EU standards on privacy and data protection, as enshrined in the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). A successful US-led initiative in the area of security and technology was the inclusion of Western Balkans countries (except Serbia) in “The Clean Network” countering Huawei’s efforts to gain a foothold in 5G networks along the Adriatic coast.

The special bond between the two countries was further strengthened during the COVID-19 crisis, where the Chinese vaccine gave an important boost to the government of Serbia as it struggled to deal with the pandemic.

China’s Soft Power in the Western Balkans

China is becoming one of the most prominent actors in the Western Balkans. Beijing is cultivating an image of itself as a benign global power, and presents itself as a credible source of economic development and a reliable partner looking for opportunities to invest in strategically important sectors. 

The key driver behind China’s clout in the region is its promotion of its development model utilizing “its” capital as an “economic miracle-maker,” and by raising expectations about Beijing’s ability to bring wealth to the Western Balkans, using its economic carrots and levers for public relations and strategic messaging to influence public opinion. Beijing is taking an opportunistic approach in the region, combining elements of infrastructure project investment that we see in developing countries, and developing economic ties with EU countries, such as in the framework of the 16+1. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) started engaging with the countries bilaterally in the early 2000s, moved to a regional approach after the launch of 16+1, and eventually moving to a hybrid approach that varies based on country specificities.

Beijing seeks closer relations with the Western Balkan countries, operating mainly in bilateral basis, but using similar policies and tactics throughout the region. While Chinese development money is not transparent, the AidData’s Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset, records 197 development projects supported by official financial and in-kind commitments from China from 2000-2017^[20] with a total of value of USD 10 billion, including more than USD 8.5 billion of concessional lending. About $1.5 billion are spent in development aid in projects that range from grants to support for the public administration, donations for agriculture modernizations, schools, Confucius Institutes through Hanban funds, debt forgiveness, trainings, but also police and military cooperation, mainly in Bosnia and Hercegovina and Serbia.

In its narrative, Beijing aims at highlighting the shared socialist past towards the Western Balkans, using the existence of some degree of post-communist nostalgia in the Balkans^[21], focusing on “traditional friendship” and “shared past”. Beijing’s official rhetoric emphasizes equality and mutually beneficial economic interaction, directing attention away from values and politics, but the long-term objectives are strategic, political, and increasingly ideological.

The overwhelming majority of China-Western Balkans cooperation involves state institutions and is based on a system of shared interests focused on: legacy contacts and relationships from the times of the Cold War; institutional partnerships and alliances across state structures; and a new growing network of actors from the civil society, academia and the media.^[22] Beijing’s soft power efforts are mostly directed at certain key influential elites in business, politics, academia, or NGOs.^[23] Any investment in the Western Balkans is low hanging fruit for Beijing compared to other European countries.

With the aim of building a community of friendly countries, Beijing is heavily investing in cultural diplomacy, from the Confucius Institutes present in every capital of the region, to chambers of commerce, and cultural centers. Confucius Institutes are a key tool of China’s cultural diplomacy, tasked with promoting a positive worldwide image for Beijing and as part of the strategy to construct an efficient communications infrastructure through government-run institutions that offer language and cultural programs^[24], while spreading propaganda and interfering with free speech on campuses.^[25] In this respect, the United States Senate has passed by unanimous consent a bill that would increase oversight on Confucius Institutes, and other China-funded cultural centers that operate on U.S. university campuses, and would cut federal funds to universities and colleges that have Confucius Institutes that don’t comply with new oversight rules and regulations.^[26] Similarly, in the EU several Confucius Institutes chapters have recently been shut down.^[27] 

Beijing has established Confucius Institutes throughout the Western Balkans^[28], with the first institute in the region opened in Belgrade in 2006 and the rest after the establishment of the BRI: Two in Serbia at state universities of Belgrade (2006) and Novi Sad (2014)^[29], at the University of Tirana in Albania^[30] (2013), at Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje^[31] in North Macedonia (2013),  at the University of Sarajevo^[32] (2015) and at University of Banja Luka^[33] (2018) in BiH and at the University of Montenegro^[34] in Podgorica (2017)).

In addition, Beijing promotes the creation of “Confucius Classrooms” at primary and secondary schools^[35]. The Government of Serbia has started a pilot project for the introduction of the Chinese language into 31 primary and secondary schools in the country, a project that started in 2012 involving more than 2500 students. More than 700 students are involved in similar courses in Montenegro, with similar numbers in Republika Srpska. In Albania, Confucius classrooms were set up in several high schools in Tirana since 2013.^[36] Establishment of Chinese Cultural Centers continues to gain ground across the region, mainly in Skopje, Belgrade, and Tirana.^[37]

Academic links between China and the Western Balkans countries are growing, typified by the increasing range and intensity of interaction between national academies of sciences.^[38] This involves China’s cooperation agreements with local institutions; the creation of new academic programmes; regular exchanges of personnel; joint research projects; the commissioning of analyses on areas such as economics and politics at the individual and institutional levels; the establishment of new teaching positions; and other initiatives.

Scholarships have also been one of Beijing’s public policy tools, offering them on a bilateral basis, with Serbia receiving the highest number. Informal interactions between China and Western Balkans countries have grown through tourists, facilitated by the visa relaxations and abolitions in Serbia^[39] (2017) and Albania^[40]

Governmental and party cooperation with China occurs at the bilateral and multilateral levels (China-CEEC Young Political Leaders’ Forum^[41]), as seen in BiH, Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia. China also takes part in the World Political Parties’ Dialogue, as part of the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to complement interstate cooperation with that based on ideological affinity.

The establishment of Friendship Associations in all five countries describes the bilateral engagement of China with Western Balkans countries. Other forms are twinning agreements, such as in Serbia, Belgrade and Novi Sad and sister cities of Beijing and Changchun, Beijing-Tirana and Lanzhou-Fier in Albania, Skopje-Nanchang in North Macedonia, and Sarajevo-Tianjin in Bosnia and Hercegovina.

In recent years, there has been a marked rise in China’s media presence across the Western Balkans. China is paying greater attention to culture in the media content it generates and promotes in the region. One of the core objectives of the CCP’s media management strategy is to get the international media to promote China’s political language and talking points. The objective is to gain a broader public profile to promote the Chinese economic and political model, and shape positive narratives about China, avoiding negative news stories. News stories consist of information that is neutral in tone, and orientated towards economic issues, but they generally lack critical evaluations of China’s activities. These outlets often appear to avoid references to information about questionable conditions attached to Chinese projects in the region, or human rights issues in China. Chinese diplomats are increasing their presence in Western Balkans social media networks, with ambassadors setting up Facebook and Twitter accounts to disseminate official messages, and publishing op-eds in the local media promoting China’s foreign policy perspective.

Chinese state cooperation with local journalists is now a well-established mechanism of interaction, one that particularly focuses on pro-Beijing reporters and authors, describing them as “missionaries”^[42]. The CCP is trying to promote a new generation of “Friends of China” with offers of generous scholarships and trips to China. Following study visits to China, such journalists routinely receive approaches from the Chinese authorities to write positive stories about their experiences, and participating in various media projects sponsored by Beijing.

A study conducted in Albania in 2020 counted more than 1000 China-related articles over a five-year period, where 47% were positive, 38% slightly negative, and 15% were neutral.^[43] In BiH, the CCP is promoting a positive image, building cultural and economic influence, with efforts more pronounced in Republika Srpska. The Belt and Road think tank owns two media outlets (China Today and Voice of China), and the Federal News Agency has a cooperation agreement with Xinhua.^[44] In Montenegro, media coverage is mostly positive, highlighting China’s economic, scientific, and technological successes, relying mainly on Chinese sources for news or media sources from Serbia. Media is promoting a controlled narrative when even the CCP is portrayed in a very positive light, as a benevolent global power.^[45] In North Macedonia, local traditional and social media are the main channels of communication of the Chinese narratives, where the Chinese Ambassador in Skopje is also very active,^[46] emphasizing Chinese positive role in North Macedonia during the pandemic. The lack of public debate and the critical approach on China’s sponsored content, combined with low media literacy enhances the vulnerability of the country to Chinese influence.

On the other side, Beijing has supported Republika Srpska in the international arena, abstaining in 2015 from a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning the genocide of Bosniak Muslims at Sebrenica in 1995.^[47] Beijing activity is rising as, in collaboration with Russia, they are stepping up pressure on Western partners in the escalating crisis over BiH. While the EU and the USA are trying to convince Bosnian Serbs to end the blockade of government authorities, Moscow and Beijing are seeking an early end to the international administration, vested with special powers. They have announced non-recognition of the new international administrator in BiH. However, their attempt to get the UN Security Council to roll back the international administration in BiH failed in summer 2021 because their joint resolution was not supported.^[48] In return, President Milorad Dodik has openly expressed support for China in terms of maintaining peace and stability in Hong Kong.^[49]

Public perceptions of China in the Western Balkans

Political behaviour shapes public perception in the former socialist countries of the Western Balkans. Few in the region have an opinion on the domestic situation in China, and the geographical distance plays in Beijing’s favour. Chinese suppression of Uygur Muslims is not a media topic, and in general the topics of Hong Kong or Taiwan are treated neutrally, and in many cases using Chinese sources. The presence of a weak civil society and the oligarchic influence over media in the Western [C3] [VZ4] Balkans provide opportunities for China to step in and fill the void.

Generally, the political elites see the presence of China as purely economic and beneficial, and mostly opportunistic. The short-term impact of the Chinese foothold is considered without any strategic analysis about the long-term implications, either economic or political. Too often governments in the region lack realistic strategies needed to guide economic planning and are unable to enlighten public opinion towards any desired economic end-state.

Chinese projects are easily aligned with political cycles and coupled with top-down, rather than transparent and market-driven procurement decisions. Beijing’s offers allow decision-makers in the region to fuel patronage networks and boost short term electoral advantages. However, promises of increased economic support for Western Balkans states have not yet materialized, and China is slowly acquiring the reputation of a ‘lending power’ with uncertain and increasingly dubious overall economic intentions.

China’s popularity in the Western Balkans is increasing and is not viewed as a counter option to the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the region. The 16+1 platform is not well known, or understood, and the impact of the BRI is not seen as significant. Local institutions and actors in are positively disposed and keen to develop and deepen bilateral relations with China. According to polls conducted by the International Republican Institute in 2020, the majority of people in the region view China favourably, from 85% of people in Serbia (among which 39% very favourable), to 68% in Montenegro, to 56% in North Macedonia, and 52% in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In a simple correlation analysis, higher is the Chinese economic engagement in the region, more positive the public perception on China. (Figure 10)

COVID-19 and Chinese aggressive diplomacy

With the COVID-19 pandemic, the Western Balkans became a stage for China’s mask diplomacy. This strategy, involved showering target countries with medical supplies, allowing China to depict itself as a generous donor while, at the same time, trying to clear its name from the accusation of having mishandled data in the first phase of the outbreak. The COVID-19 pandemic and the response in the western countries was seen as an opportunity to delegitimize liberal democracies around the world.

The Mask diplomacy was successful in the region, presenting China as a legitimate partner or even a saviour, as depicted in the images of the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić kissing the Chinese flag. When mask diplomacy turned into vaccine diplomacy, Serbia remained the epicentre of China’s strategy. In fact, the Serbian case is quite peculiar, as it replicates the Chinese vaccine diplomacy model on a regional scale.^[50] Chinese support for Serbia was promoted also in Montenegro in describing China as the “saviour” and highlighting the indifference of the western European countries. Serbia took the chance to play the lion’s share and gave doses to other countries in the region.

In the Western Balkans, disinformation about the origins of the virus, and conspiracy theories surrounding the pandemic and the pharmaceutical industry have been amplified with the official start of vaccination campaigns, where social media was used as an important channel of communication to spread these narratives. Chinese media and officials have widely promoted the supply and planned production of Chinese vaccines in Serbia, which reflects the country’s important role in promoting China’s vaccine diplomacy and overall positive image in the Western Balkans.^[51]

The so-called “vaccine diplomacy^[52]” used by China (and Russia) followed a zero-sum game logic, used to strengthen their geopolitical roles in the Western Balkans to the detriment of Western powers, combined with disinformation and manipulation efforts to undermine trust in Western-made vaccines, EU institutions and Western/European vaccination strategies. The campaigns were focused at undermining the EU’s credibility as it failed to extend its solidarity to neighbouring countries at the beginning.  The EU External Action Service report links the deliveries to disinformation campaigns aimed at shifting attention from China’s role in the outbreak and reducing the credibility of the West’s handling of the crisis.^[53] In reality, the EU Commission delivered an assistance package of $450 million (EUR 410 million) for the Western Balkans, with $45 million (EUR 38 million) for immediate aid to the region’s health systems for purchase of medical equipment, protective gear, and other needs, and the rest to support reforms in the health sector.

How is Chinese influence affecting the EU integration of the region?

Beijing publicly supports the EU integration of the region and is not openly using tools to export its communist ideology in the Western Balkans, but with its large infrastructure projects based on the state-led model negative spillover effects could increase the risk of undermining the EU’s reformist agenda in the region. Overall, market stability seems to be Beijing’s preferred position for the time being.

Citizens of the Western Balkans countries are still, overall, positive about the prospects of their countries joining the EU, however the integration process is burdened with EU uncertainties, a long-lasting “enlargement fatigue” that has further spilled over a “reform fatigue” in the Western Balkans, the global pandemic crisis, and the questionable dedication of some of the political elites within the region. 

The EU is not only the biggest trade partner for a total of EUR 53 billion and investor for EUR 3.3 billion of new investment in 2021 in the Western Balkans, but also the largest provider of financial and development assistance in the region for a total of EUR 15 billion since the start of the EU integration process.  (Figure 11)

EU membership is supported by the majority of citizens across the Western Balkans, with 60% endorsing the accession process, according to Balkan Barometer polls. However, when it comes to expectations of citizens, polls indicate a more sober outlook, with only 22% of citizens remaining optimistic about EU accession by 2025. 37