China is no longer a rational actor and it makes them so dangerous
IT could have all been so different. Had China maintained a dignified silence over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan - the island democracy the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regards as a renegade province - the visit would have hardly been noticed in China and the CCP could have continued preparing the ground on its terms and timeframe.
Instead, the CCP didn’t do the rational thing. It made a big noise about the visit – warning of the worst possible consequences – and whipping up hyper-nationalism among the Chinese people. Beijing thought repeated language about “playing with fire” would spook Washington. When that failed, the CCP found itself backed into a corner, unable to intercept Pelosi’s plane without sparking a major crisis, and subsequently losing face in front of its people.
Many Chinese citizens are now fuming that the CCP talked tough but did little. Now, the CCP has to be seen doing something, not just for Taiwan, but to placate its own people, not least by firing missiles into the sea. This hardly seems rational, but the CCP has got to somehow maintain credibility with Chinese citizens.
China's military the People's Liberation Army is establishing a new normal and benchmark for intimidation, testing its capabilities as well as the responses of the Taiwanese.
‘Salami slicing’ may be the new strategy, plus building up necessary infrastructure for a possible future invasion, as the PLA is doing on China’s border with India. Military operations since Pelosi’s visit look suspiciously like a practice run for blockading Taiwan by sea and air, the prelude perhaps to a full-scale invasion, which some analysts suggest could be lightning fast.
Western observers, however, are still applying too much logic to the situation, ignoring the strong emotional desire on the part of the CCP to gain control over Taiwan.
For leader, Xi Jinping, bringing Taiwan under Beijing is his chance to outdo previous CCP leaders, gaining dominance of the Pacific and – in his eyes – making China whole again.
As with the Pelosi visit, having told the Chinese public that Taiwan will eventually come under China’s control, the CCP cannot wait around forever to close the deal.
Don’t think Ukraine deters China, by the way. There too, the CCP has backed itself into a corner by talking up Russia’s success. Crucially, it matters less whether China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can invade Taiwan and win than whether the CCP thinks it can win, and whether the CCP feels it has to act to save face or deflect attention from domestic problems.