China: A Threat to Europe Behind the Mask of a Peacemaker
The Chinese plan is more about, as it's called in Beijing, "preventing Russia from losing" in a war, the main beneficiary of which has long been China (not to mention the amount of natural resources that Moscow is compelled to provide to China almost for free in exchange for the continued supply of critically important products).
The current General Assembly may mark the beginning of tectonic processes that will directly affect the comfort zone in which the average European citizen so desires to live. The reason for this is China.
Appealing to the UN audience and citing the alleged support of many countries in the Global South for the Brazilian-Chinese six-point initiative, China can now offer a genuine plan for "stopping the war" with specific measures and timelines. In this way, it can initiate a Russian-Ukrainian resolution according to the Chinese scenario.
In words, it won't resemble a "Chinese plan." On the contrary, it will be constantly emphasized that the initiative is backed by the Global South (no matter how amorphous this term may seem), BRICS, or the "world majority." To start, Beijing could simply gather several dozen ministers or high representatives from Global South countries (of course, Ukrainians will not be invited to this meeting) on the sidelines of the General Assembly to form some kind of "core" group that can quickly expand in the future at the expense of other African, Latin American, and Asian or regional international organizations.
Beneath the beautiful, articulate exterior will be a simple essence—freezing the war. This freeze is the result of a hidden ultimatum to Ukraine (and thus to its allies) on behalf of China, which will be disguised as the voice of the "global majority." At the same time, the freeze will bring exceptional dividends to China.
First, Beijing's plan is beneficial for Russia. After all, it undermines all of Ukraine's efforts to organize a major peace summit where the terms of peace on the continent could be discussed, with the participation of Kyiv, Moscow, and other interested states.
The annual UN General Assembly begins on Tuesday. Most readers will perceive this news as routine; everyone imagines hundreds of state leaders in similar ties or exotic national costumes giving traditional, elevated speeches about local or global issues. This seems like just another ritual event in the grand UN hall that won't really impact life in Brussels, Paris, or Prague. But not this time. The current General Assembly could mark the beginning of tectonic processes that will directly affect the comfort zone in which the average European citizen so desires to live. The reason for this is China.
Initially, it may not appear as a major threat. After all, the agenda of the General Assembly will address one of the most pressing issues—how to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine. There will be sincere or hypocritical calls for the need to stop the war, and various actors will again express their willingness to become peacemakers or mediators.
However, it seems that this time Beijing is serious and expects to firmly take the initiative into its own hands. The moment of uncertainty surrounding the presidential elections in the U.S. contributes to this, opening a "window of opportunity" for the Celestial Empire, in which China is the center of the world. By appealing to the UN audience and citing the alleged support of many countries in the Global South for the Brazilian-Chinese six-point initiative, China can now offer a genuine plan for "stopping the war" with specific measures and timelines. In this way, it can initiate a Russian-Ukrainian resolution according to the Chinese scenario.
Of course, in words, it won’t resemble a "Chinese plan." On the contrary, it will be constantly emphasized that the initiative is backed by the Global South (no matter how amorphous this term may seem), BRICS, or the "world majority." To start, Beijing could simply gather several dozen ministers or high representatives from Global South countries (of course, Ukrainians will not be invited to this meeting) on the sidelines of the General Assembly to form some kind of "core" group that can quickly expand in the future at the expense of other African, Latin American, and Asian or regional international organizations.
But this will certainly not be a plan for Europe, where the largest conflict since World War II is taking place, and even less a plan for Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, persistently promotes his version of a just peace.
Of course, the Chinese plan will contain many nice words, including appropriate and inappropriate references to the UN Charter. By manipulating language, it’s possible to obscure the principle of respecting sovereignty, which is so sensitive for every victim of invasion by neighbors, making it as vague and imprecise as possible, while emphasizing "consideration of the security interests of each country" (a favorite formulation of all autocratic regimes dreaming of a world divided into spheres of influence). But beneath the beautiful, articulate exterior will be a simple essence—freezing the war. This freeze is the result of a hidden ultimatum to Ukraine (and thus to its allies) on behalf of China, which will be disguised as the voice of the "global majority." At the same time, the freeze will bring exceptional dividends to China.
So where does the danger lie?
First, Beijing's plan is beneficial for Russia. After all, it undermines all of Ukraine's efforts to organize a major peace summit where the terms of peace on the continent could be discussed, with the participation of Kyiv, Moscow, and other interested states.
Of course, the Chinese plan does not foresee Russia's victory, as represented by Russian propaganda, in the form of a tricolor over Kharkiv, Kyiv, or Odesa, a constitutional renunciation of Ukraine's legal territories, or an immediate lifting of Western sanctions. The Chinese plan is more about, as it's called in Beijing, "preventing Russia from losing" in a war, the main beneficiary of which has long been China (not to mention the amount of natural resources that Moscow is compelled to provide to China almost for free in exchange for the continued supply of critically important products).
Of course, for such a service, Moscow will pay even greater concessions to Beijing, and the unstoppable movement of Russia toward dependency on China, which the Russians are so eager to ignore, will accelerate even further.
Secondly, the success of the Chinese plan will also become a significant foreign policy achievement for China itself, the consequences of which are difficult to overestimate. Beijing will not only solidify its role as a leader of the Global South, leveling the influence of the West and crystallizing a "loyal coalition" in the Russian-Ukrainian resolution. The Celestial Empire will attempt to "restructure" the global security architecture in its own way, creating a world in which there is no international law, but where Beijing is the key arbiter in all conflicts.
But let's turn back to Europe. What’s Hecuba to him, or he to Hecuba? What connection do we Europeans have with this global politics, Chinese-Brazilian initiatives, or Chinese-Russian trade? Why should we be cautious about Chinese initiatives on the sidelines of the General Assembly? This initiative from Beijing is just the first stage; its true contours and scope will become clear later—perhaps in a month at the BRICS summit in Kazan or later—during the "peace conference on Ukraine" called by Beijing. Or even during the peak of the drama—during peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia initiated by China, where both sides will be forced to sit at the negotiating table (of course, with Chinese mediation, but to avoid a grim picture, Beijing would very much like to involve some powerful European actors in the mediation).
The answer is simple. Brussels, Paris, Berlin, and other European capitals must clearly understand the unacceptability of the idea of resolving any conflict by having China impose ultimatum conditions (even camouflaged under the phrase "the will of the global majority") on the parties involved, especially the victims of aggression.
One fine September day in 1939, the European security architecture was openly called into question. We must ensure that the upcoming September days in New York do not become an unnoticed "beginning of the end" of European subjectivity.
CONCLUSION
The text clearly indicates the dangers posed by the "Chinese peace initiative" to stop the war in Ukraine on Chinese (actually, Russian) terms. The author clearly warns that this initiative would represent a "frozen" conflict in which Russia has decades of experience, creating and maintaining such conflicts most often in neighboring countries (Armenia, Georgia, Moldova...). This is another Chinese-Russian agreement, in which both countries receive benefits. In such conditions, Ukraine and the whole of Europe and all its citizens stand to lose. For the simple reason that Russia, as well as China, can at any moment turn the frozen into a real conflict, thus clearly demonstrating who are the masters of war and peace on the soil of Europe.
Russia and China are jointly, both economically and security-wise, gathering around them the countries of the Global South, in an effort to change the global world order, in which they would impose their own rules of the game. If you take into account the autocratic regimes that rule in these countries, the way they act in and with other countries, often violating domestic and international legislation, such a world order would certainly lead to a significant collapse of democracy, human rights and freedom.