Belarus: Lukashenka’s sham election and shift towards a Chinese political model

On 26 January 2025, Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced his ‘overwhelming’ victory in his seventh presidential election, claiming a record-high 86.8 per cent of the vote. This way, Lukashenka extended his rule to 2030. If everything goes according to his plan, by that time, a 76-year-old Lukashenka will have ruled Belarus for 36 years.

These so-called ‘elections’ were held under extraordinary security measures, repression, and in an atmosphere of total fear(opens in a new tab) as we described here. Lukashenka still seems traumatised by the massive pro-democracy protests(opens in a new tab) that took place all over Belarus in response to fraudulent elections in 2020. That is why he did everything to ensure the 2025 event would develop according to his scenario, without any surprises. Since 2020, the country has been facing an unprecedented wave of political repression, the exodus of over 350,000 pro-democracy Belarusians, and the destruction of civil society and independent media – see here.

Lukashenka had made it clear that he would not tolerate even the slightest signs of public dissent. It is therefore fair to assume that these ‘elections’ likely had the lowest real turnout in history. Voting stations and the country’s streets and squares looked empty.

Interestingly, for the first time in history, Lukashenka had to limit the scale of his ‘electoral triumph’. He did not dare to surpass the 2024 election result of Vladimir Putin, who declared his victory with 87.2 per cent support. This way, Lukashenka underlined his loyalty and subordination to his geopolitical master in Moscow.

The ‘Chinese model’ and the abolition of direct elections in Belarus

In spite of this Potemkin theatre, Lukashenka may have come closer to the idea of abolishing direct elections altogether and shifting to parliament nomination since there is no longer a need to fake democratic processes.

On 30 January, a couple of days after the ‘elections’, the head of the Belarusian Electoral Commission, Igor Karpenko, made several noteworthy statements(opens in a new tab) about the outcome. In essence, according(opens in a new tab) to Karpenko, the Chinese political system is more honest with its citizens than the Western democratic multi-party model, and the Communist Party is responsible for the country’s destiny, unlike in the West, where it is unclear who stands behind numerous parties. This thinking of Karpenko illustrate not only distrust in the people, but also a lot of conspiracy theory.

With such statements, Lukashenka’s high-ranking representative opened the door to the possibility of abolishing direct presidential elections in Belarus, saying ‘it is quite possible to discuss the election of the president through the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. This issue depends on the will of the people and the Constitution’.

What is the ‘All-Belarusian People’s Assembly’?

In 1996, Lukashenka created the institution(opens in a new tab) of the ‘People’s Assembly’ and there is a clear trend in its evolution.

In 2011 this body was claimed to be the ‘ultimate representation of the people’s will’ and the ‘highest form of democracy’. Later, in 2016 Lukashenka talked about giving the Assembly constitutional agency.

After the constitutional changes(opens in a new tab) of 2022, the ‘People’s Assembly’ became the ‘highest representative body’ in the country, turning into the Belarusian analogue of the USSR’s Supreme Soviet or the Chinese National People’s Congress.

Who is the chair of the body? Yes, Lukashenka was appointed chair in April 2024 when a presidium was also selected which he also heads.

In reality, instead of being elected, all of the Assembly’s delegates are nominated directly by Lukashenka and his administration. Every five years, Lukashenka uses this ‘Assembly’ to receive the ‘people’s blessing’ for running or to manifest the ‘people’s total support’ for his policies after his election victory.

It is expected that the next meeting of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly will take place in April 2025. Without any doubt, the Assembly will glorify Lukashenka’s electoral ‘triumph’ and show the ‘people’s total support’ for his policies.

Lukashenka’s shift to the Chinese / USSR model?

The signals about the abolition of direct presidential elections in Belarus is a further indication of Lukashenka’s own desire(opens in a new tab) to adopt the current ‘Chinese’ political model, which he hinted at in August 2022(opens in a new tab). He could make the change at any moment, through the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, which as mentioned, already has the constitutional status of the highest representative body in the country.

This means that at any point in the future, the People’s Assembly could declare that ‘Belarusians want to establish the highest form of democracy, and let the President be elected by the most trusted people’s Deputies’. The state propaganda will likely explain this political shift as a triumph of ‘true democracy’. Belarus would then have a political model of super-presidential rule rather similar to that of China, after having gotten rid of the ‘fake’ norms imposed by ‘corrupted Western liberal democracies’.

Such a model with acclamation by the puppets would also remind of the model used in the Soviet Union where none of the higher state officials were elected directly and where the real leaders from the Communist were selected via intrigues in narrow circles of the Party’s Politburo.

Lukashenka might be thinking about this political shift because of his unpredictable health condition and his never-ending fear of Belarusian society that challenged his rule in 2020. He would surely be much more comfortable having his puppet deputies in the People’s Assembly determine the president instead of the current ‘national election’ model. As the nightmare of the 2020 protests still haunts him, Lukashenka might be too afraid to continue staging even fully falsified elections in the future.