Baltic countries in constant fear of Russian aggression

 

The world has entered the second year of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Many wonder when this war could end. For its completion, numerous countries offer solutions and assistance. Ukraine has only one proposal - the war can only end with Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine and the abandonment of the occupied territories.

 

There are a large number of political and military analysts who claim that Russia must be militarily stopped and defeated in Ukraine, because any other outcome would give Russian President Vladimir Putin wings to spread war on other countries in the region, above all the Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. . This would have far-reaching consequences, because we are dealing with NATO member countries.

 

The leaders of these countries persistently claim that they know well the way official Moscow thinks and that they live in fear of the outcome of the Ukrainian war. Citizens of these countries fear that their countries could be next in line.

 

"The focus should be the defeat of Russia in Ukraine"

 

"If Vladimir Putin is not stopped immediately, at the time of the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, he could lead the region into a larger conflict, which could have greater security consequences for the US as well," Kristjan Mae, a senior official of the Ministry of Defense of Estonia, said recently during a visit of American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin to Tallinn.

 

 

Mae, head of the Estonian Defense Ministry's NATO and European Union division, warned Austin that Russia has shown a willingness to continue its attempts to reclaim territories that were part of the former Soviet Union. He pointed out that even the strong sanctions that hit the Russian economy did not change such plans of the Russian president.

 

"If we don't solve this war right now, where it is now, we will have an even bigger war. If Europe is tied to this war, then European support, political, military support of allies to the Indo-Pacific region, will also be limited. So the primary, short-term focus should be defeating Russia in Ukraine now. This is the time to do it," said Mae.

 

Defense Minister of Lithuania Arvydas Anusauskas is of the same opinion, who claims that Ukraine must win the war or the security of the Baltics will be threatened.

 

CSIS: The Baltic is a key strategic region

 

"NATO must be ready to respond immediately in the event of a threat. Lithuania will stand by Ukraine. Kiev must win this war or the security of the entire region will be threatened. "Many allied countries have recently made historic decisions to significantly increase their defense expenditures," said the Lithuanian Defense Minister, emphasizing that Lithuania aims to reach three percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) from Washington states in a recently published analysis that the Baltic is a key strategic region where the military and economic interests of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia overlap.

 

"The sabotage of the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline, regardless of who carried out the attack, signaled that the conflict in the region is no longer just an explosion. Gray zone operations are ongoing, and the US, NATO and partners must be ready to act together against an increasingly hostile Russia, which is now trying to divert attention from its military shortcomings in Ukraine. In this effort, the Russian game will test the limits and try to exploit the seams of the Alliance. A strong response is needed to deny Russia control and ensure that full conflict is avoided," the analysis states.

 

Russia maintains a constant threat to the Baltic region

 

CSIS states that the conflict in the Baltic could take place in all domains – in the air, at sea, on land, in space and in cyberspace.

 

“Russia has maintained a constant threat to the Baltic region through the full spectrum of gray zone operations, including economic coercion, disinformation and propaganda, cyber disruption and covert military incursions. Ukraine may have changed the calculus for Russia's conflict in the Baltics, revealing significant deficiencies in Russia's ability to control the land and air domains. A conflict in the Baltic would meet the same national, existential determination that is present in Ukraine, with additional weight in the form of an agreement on mutual defense and commitment to Article 5 of NATO", according to CSIS analysts.

 

The analysis carried out by experts from the European Center for Security Studies "George C. Marshall" is on the same track. They state that it is undeniable that the Baltic countries are under constant pressure from Russia, from official accusations to unofficial disinformation and from open displays of military force to covert intelligence operations. However, they state that today, compared to the period before 2014 and the Russian annexation of Crimea, there has been a change in the way of thinking of people in the Baltic countries.

 

Three countries cannot defend themselves

 

 

“Prior to the deterioration of Russian-Western relations in 2014, Russian-speakers in Narva, Estonia, and Riga, Latvia, were particularly willing to exploit their sense of exclusion and neglect in the name of mobilizing voters for political influence. However, they now show no enthusiasm for exchanging membership of a prosperous, democratic European state for Kremlin rule. Furthermore, Moscow seems to understand how

 

Traditionally, the analysis states, the debate about Russia’s goals in the region have been about whether it seeks direct territorial expansion or only political influence.

 

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) states that NATO, aware of the danger, has deployed an additional number of soldiers to the small Baltic states, but that, at their current size, they would probably not be able to resist a large-scale Russian military attack and that these three states today they represent - considering their small size and position - the most vulnerable NATO member states.

 

"Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have persistently assured the Baltic nations that they have nothing to fear and that NATO will come to their aid if they have to invoke Article 5, but given the recent historical memory of Russian occupation and oppression, it is not surprising that the peoples of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania feel exposed", according to CEPA.

 

Putin's dream of a 'new' Soviet Union

 

Despite the huge developments in the last few decades, the small Baltic states have a lot to worry about. For now, Russia is occupied by Ukraine. This may change and NATO should consider significantly increased measures, the analysis concludes.

 

NATO commanders are also aware of the danger that threatens the Baltic countries. General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy commander of NATO in Europe, held a lecture at the Royal Academy of Military Sciences in Sweden at the very beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and then he said that the risk of war in the Baltic states is real.

 

"It is tangible. Putin's intention was clear all along. After all, he said that the most appropriate security solution for Europe is a new Yalta, which I interpret as meaning that he wants to re-establish Russian rule in the former republics of the Soviet Union. As we know, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are former republics of the Soviet Union," he said.

 

"This is a danger that we must take very seriously and be concerned about, not least because there are significant Russian-speaking minorities in at least two of these countries. This is in line with what Vladimir Putin said earlier about the desire to reunite all Russians under the flag of 'Mother Russia,'" said General Shirreff, who did not rule out the possibility of a Russian invasion of Poland or other Eastern European countries.

Pictures from Ukraine do not offer much optimism

 

If you look at this from a broader perspective, all Eastern European countries that used to be part of the Warsaw Pact and are now part of NATO are under threat. Therefore, NATO must be ready to discourage any form of attack on any NATO member country, he concluded.

 

Residents of Russia consider relations with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to be strained, and the Baltics as hostile and a threat to Russia, according to a survey recently commissioned by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and conducted by the Levada Center in Moscow.

 

NATO countries assure the citizens of the Baltic countries that they have no reason to fear. The images that come out of Ukraine every day, however, do not offer much optimism.