Balkan "affairs" with BRICS as an alarm for the EU

The Balkan region should focus on its path to membership in the European Union instead of turning to the BRICS alliance, whose members, especially Russia and China, could use their economic influence to implement other policies, according to Al Jazeera interlocutors.

Politicians from the Western Balkan region are increasingly using BRICS (an economic agreement between Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa) as a counterweight to Euro-Atlantic integration, especially those from the ethno-nationalist side of the political spectrum who are trying as much as possible to block the path of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, of Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia towards the EU.

Katerina Veljanovska Blaževska, a professor at the Faculty of Security Studies in Skopje, told Al Jazeera that, although on a global level, many countries show interest in BRICS, especially in terms of economic opportunities, geopolitically and geohistorically, the Balkan nations should build their alliances in Europe.

"The influence of Russia and China on the Balkans is evident, which can trace a certain direction and perception of future potential opportunities for the inclusion of some countries in BRICS. However, it is about influence that is most often presented through economic investments, although we often witness the spread of misinformation, malignant influence, which leads to the risk of defocusing the public from the real picture," the interviewee points out.

What are the risks for the region?

She states that there are certainly benefits, but also risks, when forming an alliance and when it is necessary to promote a common goal and common interests.

"The story of BRICS in the Balkans is most often viewed from the perspective of increased investments and stimulated economic growth and infrastructure, the transfer of knowledge and experience for the development of new trade potentials, as well as cultural benefits implemented in the potential development of tourism...

 

But who can guarantee how much to achieve all this and under what conditions and risks for the region?"

The Macedonian professor is categorical: the Balkan region should direct all potentials to realize its European perspective as soon as possible, where there is already serious progress in the implementation of directives and reform processes that should focus on the welfare of all citizens because ultimately they are the ones who choose because they are directly affected by the benefits.

"I believe that this situation with BRICS should be understood as an alarm for the EU institutions to find a way to speed up the process of integration into the EU, especially since the countries of the Western Balkans are on a long waiting list and the list of additional demands is constantly expanding, as is the case with the Republic North Macedonia. Every change in the geopolitical situation creates conditions for new possibilities and implications of direct influence on global politics, and this one is no exception," adds Veljanovska Blaževska.

In order not to question the determination of the states of the regions as to whether they are still in favor of Euro-Atlantic integration, they must emphasize this more clearly and concretely so that the public, in the age of rapid transfer of information and misinformation, has a better insight into the steps for progress on that path, he says she.

"On the other hand, these narratives about an alternative path from an economic and political perspective could affect the established diplomatic relations with the West, but also the overall regional security, stability and cooperation in the Balkans due to different interests and perspectives."

 

Indicator of east-west symmetry in Kazan

Boris Varga, political scientist and journalist, says that the leading countries of the BRICS, China and Russia, have been present for many years with their strong influence in the Western Balkans, and that the war in Ukraine disrupted the dynamics of global changes and accelerated certain geopolitical processes "that would certainly played in the long run".

 

"On the one hand, the strengthening of the influence of the Global South in Europe and the simultaneous decline of the influence of the West and the USA in the world. The West was appalled by the pomp and reaction of leaders at the BRICS Summit in Russia, not to mention the dismay of the Global South at Netanyahu's support for the Gaza war. It could also be called a kind of symmetry, although it is justified by the diversification of the global economy and finance," he says to Al Jazeera and then asks the question: is there room in BRICS for the countries of the Western Balkans?

Any offer would be a challenge primarily to the EU, because it would be an offer to its particularly disloyal candidates to sit on the 'second chair'. I believe that Serbia has been thinking about such a 'chair' for a long time, and that other countries, even EU members, such as Hungary, could follow it," Varga answers.

When asked whether there could be repercussion from the West on rapprochement with BRICS, he points to the example of Turkey.

"Turkey's application for membership in BRICS shows, on the one hand, that the West is not too sensitive to membership in a rather heterogeneous geopolitical forum. On the other hand, such a privilege of Ankara is an exclusive right for a strong NATO member, which would certainly not be the case with any Western Balkan country. "Military potential is currently the strongest voice and key for any international alliance in an unstable world," says Varga.

"Turkey's example could be followed by other countries, such as Serbia, which is already feeling the pulse of the West's reaction to BRICS. [Serbian President Aleksandar] Vučić was not there but, as he says, he sent four ministers to the BRICS Summit in Kazan. Serbia is the biggest Russophile among the EU candidates, but Vučić traded loyalty to Putin for openly turning Serbia into an authoritarian colony of the West."

"Vučić is also ready to change the sitting between the EU and Russia, to the sitting between the EU and BRICS, when the time comes and when the conditions for it are created. "At the moment, Serbia is in a lithium crisis, which limits its international shipping, and it also makes good money from the arms trade in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East," the interlocutor points out.

 

Festive ball

 

The BRICS summit in Kazan showed that Putin has the full support of the global south for Russia's self-destruction and the West's involvement in the war in Ukraine, according to the political scientist and journalist.

"It was a festive ball after which the emperor will undoubtedly turn into a beggar from which all BRICS members will benefit. They already have it, because Russia sells its energy products cheaply and is trade-oriented and dependent on its 'allies' from the BRICS. As the West will not allow Ukraine to be completely defeated in the war, it is clear that the BRICS will not allow Russia to fall in this war either. Especially from a NATO rifle."

"It will be dangerous if Russia continues to have success on the front, then political Russophiles in the world and Russian methods in Ukraine will turn into approval of the most brutal violence to solve political issues. From South America, Africa and the Middle East to the Pacific, many crises that have been simmering since World War II could flare up again, such as Taiwan or the Korean Peninsula," predicts Varga.

At the end of the conversation, he points out that the USA and the EU and the BRICS countries have, above all, an economic interest in good cooperation, but at the same time they are ruthless competitors.

"That is why it is not desirable for candidates in the EU, especially from the Western Balkans, to integrate into a competitive alliance. It's not just a question of geopolitical regrouping around Ukraine and balancing, but also trade wars, as is now simmering between the EU and China."

 

Economic data before emotions

Jason Jay Smart, political analyst, Kyiv Post correspondent and persona non grata in Moscow, told Al Jazeera that speculation about membership alone should not cause problems.

"Instead, I think much of the controversy is based not on good-faith disagreements, but on Russian propaganda seeking to influence the local population."

 

He is categorical in his view that it is difficult to imagine what any Balkan country would get from BRICS.

"As far as I know, all Balkan countries trade more with EU members than with BRICS countries. It seems unwise for a country to tie its future to Brazil, India, etc., when you are on the very border of the European Union, one of the most powerful unions in history. Making wise decisions for the future of countries should be based on clear economic data, not on unfounded emotions."

When asked whether speculation alone can create a new foothold for BRICS members in the Balkans to create instability, this analyst says:

"Given that the Balkans are not a major trading partner of the BRICS countries, it is more likely that China and Russia will simply use their much larger size to economically bully the Balkan nations than actually partner with them." There is no evidence that Russia and China will be any more friendly towards the Balkans than they are in their economic policies in their 'partner countries' in Africa and Latin America."