Attack on Shoigu. Why was Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Timur Ivanov arrested and what will happen next?

 

Immediately after the wave of news about the health condition of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, which they attempted to nullify by quickly releasing two video clips simulating Kadyrov's ability to act, the public barely had time to articulate when the deputy to the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu - Timur Ivanov, was arrested. Ivanov was detained at his workplace. He is accused of receiving a particularly large bribe (which he denies). Previously, he was portrayed as someone who exposed himself inappropriately with a luxurious lifestyle.

 

Ivanov has been cooperating with Shoigu for over 12 years, even before Shoigu was appointed governor of the Moscow region. In the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Ivanov was, among other things, responsible for a delicacy - all construction. In this field, he distinguished himself several times, especially because he built the Patriot Park and the network of healthcare institutions of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation during the COVID-19 period. The chaotic state of medical assistance in the Russian army in the initial phase of the invasion (and even now in some places) is partly his merit, it seemed as if he was receiving orders from Ukraine.

 

 

But the main thing is the fear that this detention has caused in the Russian political community. Rospropaganda was initially in shock. The fact itself was mentioned, but the interpretation was rather dry. Obviously, instructions were not received on which direction the narrative should be directed. There are several overlapping stories.

 

The first is an attack on Shoigu's personal positions. Rumors have been circulating for some time that after Putin's "inauguration," there will be a personnel reshuffle at the top of Russia. And Shoigu will be transferred to another position. The attack could be linked to an attempt to reduce Shoigu's appetites and demands (and those of his support group) for a new position, as well as for cleaning up the lawn before the arrival of a new minister.

If they start promoting Ivanov, it will be a signal that there is a deal and Shoigu will resist. For him, it is important not only to stay in the arena but also not to become the main culprit of the failure of the "special military operation." But someone has to be him.

So far, very few details have been made public, allowing the situation to be rolled back. But speculation about the charges has already begun, especially regarding the fact that Ivanov is accused of treason and is being interrogated by the FSB counterintelligence service. They have also brought in Ivanov's formally ex-wife, through whom they are trying to pull the strings towards other representatives of the political elite based on their involvement in construction projects.

 

The second is the traditional showdown "Chekist versus the army." Few people can carry out an attack on the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. This is definitely not a self-initiated action; it is a business-political signal.

The third is the main factor: pure business. There are many corrupt individuals but few resources. Through Ivanov's detention, there is a desire to redistribute some financial flows.

And what is interesting. Literally before the incident with Ivanov, information spread that the semi-living Kadyrov wanted to get the position of Deputy Minister of Defense for a representative of his clan. This request was presented in a mocking manner, which does not deny the existence of such a conspiracy. A strange coincidence, which may be an attempt to divert attention to an inappropriate subject.

In any case, this is a blow to Shoigu. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced a video of the meeting of the Ministry of Defense's board on April 23, in which the entire top military leadership participated, including Ivanov. And by evening, they came for him. It seems that Shoigu either was not informed or was informed at the last moment. And this is a pity. Shoigu is an experienced fighter; he must respond.