Attack on Belgorod region. What happened and what it can bring to Ukraine

In the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, the so-called "counter-terrorist operation" continues against armed people who crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border. Russian authorities are reporting the shelling and calling the attackers a "Ukrainian sabotage and intelligence group." Kiev rejects the accusations and says it is a private initiative of Russian partisans. Whoever is behind the attack, Ukraine can turn the situation to its advantage, according to experts.

The governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, assessed that it was an "unprecedented" attack on the region.
During the attack, he reported numerous shelling in the region, downed drones, stated that residents of a dozen border settlements were "actually displaced" and complained about numerous "fake news" and "a real information war" in order to intimidate the population and spread panic.
After the video that appeared on the day of the attack, when the tank enters the territory of the Russian checkpoint "Grayvoron", unconfirmed videos are circulating on Telegram channels showing people with armored vehicles strengthening their positions near the checkpoint.
The fighters of the "Russian Volunteer Corps" (RDK) and the "Freedom of Russia" legion, formed by Russian citizens, took responsibility for the attacks. They claim to have captured several Russian settlements, including the border town of Kozjinka.
Russian authorities, on the other hand, call the attackers "Ukrainian DRG". The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmytro Peskov, said that the situation caused "deep concern" and assured that military actions against Ukraine will continue "to prevent such incursions in the future."
At the same time, Peskov said that President Vladimir Putin sees no reason to convene a meeting of the Security Council because of the extraordinary event in the Belgorod region.
Official Kiev consistently denies its involvement in the operation and blames "Russian partisans" for the attacks.
In particular, the adviser to the president's chief of staff, Mihajlo Podolijak, ironically paraphrased Vladimir Putin's words about the "little green men" in Crimea during the annexation in 2014, noting that "tanks, as you know, are sold on any Russian military market, and underground Partisan units consist of all citizens of Russia."
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that it eliminated all attackers - more than 70 people with armored vehicles - on the territory of Ukraine and fired "until complete elimination".
There is no official confirmation for this statement yet. Instead, more and more new, also unconfirmed, messages about the attackers' activities on the Russian border appear on Telegram channels.

What are they saying about the attacks in Russia and the West?

The Russian media cautiously commented on the subject of the Belgorod breakthrough.
Some, like the NTV channel, completely ignored this topic. Others mostly pointed out that the attack in the Belgorod region was only an attempt by Ukraine to divert attention from the failure in Bakhmut.
In recent days it has emerged that after months of hard fighting, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have effectively left the city, Russia has declared its victory, although the city, which had a pre-war population of around 70,000 people, is now in ruins.
Russian military blogger Igor Strelkov (Girkin), who readily criticizes the military leadership of the Russian Federation, is outraged by the insecurity of Russian borders and believes that this is how the Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin.
"It is precisely from this type of "disruptive" attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation that the enemy will begin its offensive, now it remains only to wait when the command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be forced to throw reserves into an operationally unpromising area... and at this moment the enemy will be able to strike in any other place," writes Strelkov.

They are extremely cautious in commenting on events in the West as well.
British intelligence officers wrote in a morning summary that the attack shows how much threats to Russia's border regions have grown.
At the same time, some experts believe that Russia can use the incident to its advantage as proof that the Russian Federation is a "victim of war".
The US State Department could not answer the question of what exactly is happening in the Belgorod region, but reminded that in general "they do not condone or support attacks outside the borders of Ukraine."
"At the same time, I think it's important to take a step back and remind everyone, the whole world, that of course Russia started this war, Russia continues to attack the civilian population of Ukraine, schools, hospitals and civilian infrastructure. How Ukraine conducts its operations is a matter for Ukraine. The aggressor in this war is Russia," State Department Press Secretary Matthew Miller emphasized.

What can it give to Ukraine?

Whoever is behind the unrest in the Belgorod region, this is a pretty good story for Ukraine and the prospects for its expected counter-offensive, according to Alexei Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs.
He believes that from a military point of view, attacks on the Russian border do not make sense, but they have a strong informative effect.
"Such a bold action could have had a psychological and informational effect on the Russian leadership and population, fueling internal conflicts and contradictions," says Melnik.
Realizing the insecurity of the region on the front line, Russia will have to transfer additional troops to strengthen the border, the expert predicts. And there are also problems with reserves in the Russian Federation.
"Any action that contributes to the weakening of the enemy definitely contributes to the success of the Ukrainian forces," concludes Melnik.

Crimean flashbacks

Analysis by BBC correspondent Svjatoslav Homenko

In mid-May, Russians had an incredible opportunity to feel like Ukrainians in the spring of 2014.
Here is Crimea. Part of Ukraine, according to all possible international agreements. On its territory appear "little green men" in Russian camouflage uniforms, armed with Russian-style weapons, who look like Russian soldiers. But Vladimir Putin turns a blind eye and claims that there are no Russian soldiers on the peninsula and that these "polite people" are members of the self-defense forces who bought their uniforms at the military market. Doesn't it remind you of anything?
Of course, in the future we will learn the whole truth about what exactly happened in the Belgorod region. Perhaps all the parallels with the Crimean events are inappropriate and far-fetched. But it's hard to shake the strange feeling that the game invented by Putin in 2014 can be played by two people.

The Ukrainian authorities describe the situation in the Belgorod region in categories: what we are doing here are internal Russian conflicts, not all Russians like Putin and his regime. Volodymyr Zelensky did not mention her in his evening speech. And the fact that on the very day of the incident in Gaivron, the head of the military intelligence service Kirilo Budanov appealed to Russian soldiers to surrender, or the fact that the events in the Belgorod region are monitored almost live through Telegram channels connected to the president's office - Well, probably a coincidence.
"Ukraine is following the situation with interest," quotes the representative of the president's office, Mihajlo Podolijak. We are not there.

Russian commentators claim that with the attack on Grayvoron, Kiev tried to cover up the negative informational effect that Ukrainian society suffered from the loss of Bakhmut. A controversial statement, given that, according to the position of the command, Bahmut has not yet been completely abandoned by the units of the Armed Forces, and Ukrainian society lives faster in anticipation of a quick counterattack on Russian positions.
But it is hard to argue with the fact that Ukrainian society received a charge of positivity from yesterday's events. Photos of ballots for the referendum on the secession of Belgorod Oblast from Russia. Statements that Kyiv agrees to become a mediator in peace negotiations between the Belgorod People's Republic and the Russian Federation. False announcement of the opening of the first branch of "Ukrposhta" in the Belgorod region. The stores in Belgorod ran out of blue and yellow material. Over the past two days, Ukrainian social networks have generated dozens of memes on the topic of "disturbing events."

And if we are serious - then whoever and on whose orders "Operation Grayvoron" was carried out, it showed the vulnerability of the Russian border, the dubious effectiveness of expensive defense lines, will probably lead to the dispersal of Russian forces, which will now be forced to cover not only the front line , but apparently safe regions to this day.
And, also, when war knocks on the doors of ordinary Russians living far from the formal front lines, some may look to the federal government to give them weapons. But others - and, by the way, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities have already spoken about this in the past - may wonder if the Kremlin should not have started a war against Ukraine. And if it is, then maybe it should end as soon as possible.
Be that as it may, the fact is that the Russian authorities had at least one more headache. And this, from Kyiv's point of view, is a pretty good result.