17.09.2022.

All connections between Dodik and Russia

While the European Union (EU) is tightening Russia's isolation, the Serbian member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is doing the exact opposite.
 
Milorad Dodik is supposed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 20. He confirmed the visit to journalists on September 8 in Banja Luka.
 
Then he said that he had "confirmation that we will build two gas thermal power plants that will be a sure guarantee of our energy stability in the future".
By visiting Moscow, Dodik will become one of the few high-ranking officials of a country who will meet twice with the Russian leader since Russia's attack on Ukraine in February of this year.
 
The first meeting was in June, in St. Petersburg, at the International Economic Forum.
In addition to meeting with Dodik, the member of the BiH Presidency from the Republika Srpska (RS, one of the two BiH entities) and the leader of the largest party in the RS, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), has often met with the Russian ambassador to BiH since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Igor Kalabuhov.
 
Dodik, who in the previous 16 years held the functions of the Prime Minister of the RS, the President of the RS and a member of the BiH Presidency, opposes BiH joining the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia due to the invasion.
 
Considering the veto that Dodik invested in the Presidency on all punitive measures against Russia, it is obvious that even those sanctions that have been adopted cannot be implemented.
In the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for October 2, it will be seen how much pro-Russian rhetoric and closeness with Russian leaders isolated by the EU brought to Dodik, who is this time a candidate for the president of the RS, and his political option.
 
However, what is undoubted, the economic dependence of BiH, as well as its entity, is not insurmountable.Investments from the 27 member countries of the EU bloc make up 64 percent of total foreign investments in BiH, while Russian investments amount to less than four percent.
 
In the RS, Russia ranks fifth as an investor, behind neighboring Serbia, EU members Italy and Austria, and Great Britain.
 
Suspicious sale of the oil industry
Like many countries in Europe, Russia's strongest foothold in Bosnia and Herzegovina is by far in the oil industry, specifically in the Optima Group, the largest oil company in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
 
This group is engaged in all activities from the procurement of crude oil, through its processing to wholesale and distribution.
 
It is 100 percent owned by the Russian "NeftegazInKor", which is a daughter company of "Zarubezhneft", the Russian state company in charge of oil operations abroad.
 
It was created in 2008, by the merger of the "Petrol" pump network, the Brod Oil Refinery and the Modriča Oil Refinery, which were sold to the Russians a year earlier, during Dodik's visit to Moscow as Prime Minister of the RS.
 
Back then, Transparency International (TI) BiH warned about the non-transparency and harmfulness of the contract on the sale of the oil industry, and identified as many as 44 disputed points.
 
Namely, according to the conclusion of the BiH Competition Council, according to the data at the time, Zarubežneft owned only 40 percent of NeftegazInKor, while 20 percent were held by the companies "Invest-tehnologije", "Nepat" and "Junik Development", whose ownership structure has remained unknown to this day. .
 
When the privatization of the oil industry was brought up again in 2014, at the sessions of the entity parliament, TI BiH reminded of this
 
"(There is) room for doubt that the majority owners of the Refinery are not Russian companies or the Russian Federation, as it is presented to the public, but precisely the highest level of the government of the RS, which carried out the process of criminal privatization or persons closely connected with the government," he says. in the then announcement.
 
Today, "Optima Group" is 100 percent owned by the Russian state.
 
Russian investments - oil and little else
 
Last year, investments from Russia in the RS were negative, according to data from the Agency for Foreign Investments of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FIPA).
 
Direct Russian investments in RS
 
The negative amount of investments in the RS can refer to retained earnings, obligations based on indebtedness, or loss-making companies. Investments in the Federation of BiH (2017 - 2021) amounted to 5.2 million KM.
They amounted to -94.6 million marks (about 47.3 million euros), and FIPA states that these are possible obligations based on indebtedness.
 
As of December 2021, a total of 453 million marks (about 227 million euros) have been invested in the RS from Russia, which makes this country the fifth investor in that BiH entity.
 
Investments in the oil industry represent an almost complete investment profile of Russia in BiH, more specifically, in the RS.
 
Where does Russia invest in BiH?
 
In relation to the RS, Russian investments in the Federation of BiH entity are negligible. 4.4 million marks (about 2.2 million euros) were invested.
 
In April 2014, Dodik announced that a loan had been agreed with a commercial bank from Russia, and that the first tranche of 70 million euros would soon arrive, followed by an additional 250 million euros. The terms of this loan were never made public, nor was it whether the money reached the accounts of RS.
 
Businesses with Russian oligarchs
 
The company "Comsar Energy", owned by the Russian billionaire Rašid Serdarov, has been trying for years to build the thermal power plant "Ugljevik III" in the northeast of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
 
In 2013, the company received a concession for the construction of a power plant, and it was supposed to build it using bank loans from China, but that source of funds is no longer available, because China stops financing the construction of coal-fired thermal power plants abroad.
 
However, "Comsar" confirmed to Radio Free Europe (RSE) in July that they are not giving up on the project. So far, the preparatory work has not moved away.
 
In 2014, Serdarov and Milorad Dodik jointly laid the foundation stone for the construction of the "Mrsovo" Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Lim River in the municipality of Rudo, in the east of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The construction of the hydroelectric power plant has not yet started, and the concession issued by the Government of the RS is valid until 2062.
 
Oleg Burlakov died of the corona virus last year, and ten years ago his company "Privredni pororod" wanted to open a brown coal mine near Novi Grad, in the northwest of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
That business started from a "dead point" at the beginning of this year, and the coal mining concession is valid for another two decades.
 
Due to negotiations on the mine, Burlakov visited Banjaluka in 2018.
 
The Russian businessman first appeared in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2008 when he bought the paint and varnish factory "Turpentine" from Višegrad, in the east of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which reopened 12 years later.
 
At the time, Burlakov was also interested in Banja Luka's "Unis - Cold Rolled Strip Rolling Mill", "Famos" engine factory in East Sarajevo, Ljubija mine near Prijedor and Miljevina mine near Foča, but without concrete results.
 
The” Kilogram of Gold” Affair
 
Burlakov found himself in the public spotlight in 2015 when the former ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Russia, Gordan Milinić, accused Milorad Dodik of receiving a one-kg gold bar as a bribe from Burlakov as the prime minister of the RS.
Milinić claimed for BN television that in front of his eyes, the Russian businessman handed Dodik a "nicely wrapped kilogram of gold".
He was later questioned before the Prosecutor's Office of BiH, which launched an investigation, but the report against Dodik was eventually dismissed.
 
Political relations and the 'Ikon' affair
 
During his visit to Moscow in 2007, Dodik had one of the first meetings with the current Russian head of diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov. Among other things, the purchase of the RS oil industry was also discussed.
 
Later, they met regularly, and the cooperation, which is based on the idea of deepening the economic connection, gave more and more space to political connection.
Within the political process, the affair from 2020 is especially memorable. Namely, two years after he first visited Banjaluka, Lavrov visited the RS again, this time in Eastern Sarajevo.
 
During the meeting with Dodik, he pointed out that the Dayton Peace Agreement is the foundation of BiH, but that arrival remained in the shadow of the "Ikon" affair.
Namely, Dodik presented Lavrov with a 300-year-old gilded icon, which the Ukrainian authorities claim originated from Luhansk, a city in the east of the country that was still under the control of pro-Russian separatists.
 
The icon was returned to Dodik, and the investigation into this case is still ongoing.
 
Russia has been supporting the RS in the UN Security Council for years and often opposes the reports of the high representative on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In June 2021, Russia in the Council was against the election of Christian Schmidt as the new representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to the decree of the Russian Prime Minister from May of this year, that country plans to build the Chancellery of its embassy in Banja Luka.
In May, RSE sent a query to the Embassy's address about what this Office will deal with, to which there was no reply.
 
Regular meetings with Putin
 
In recent years, in the position of President of the RS, or as a member of the BiH Presidency, Dodik often met directly with the Russian President.
Since 2014, this has happened every September before the elections, except for 2020, which was marked by the corona virus pandemic.
 
Meetings between Dodik and Putin
 
According to official Kremlin information, Dodik met Putin three times in Saint Petersburg at the International Economic Forum, they met twice in Moscow, and once in Sochi after the Formula 1 race and in Belgrade, during the official visit of the Russian president to Serbia.
 
According to the official transcripts of the meetings, available on the Kremlin's website, the talks were mainly based on Russia's support for the Republika Srpska, as well as economic cooperation.
They were held in Russia, except for the one in Belgrade in 2019, during Putin's official visit to Serbia.
After the last meeting, in St. Petersburg on June 19, Putin said that relations between Russia and Bosnia and Herzegovina "are complicated due to Bosnia and Herzegovina's support for sanctions against Russia", but that Russia is aware of Dodik's position and appreciates it.
A member of the BiH Presidency then replied that cooperation with Russia continues, that Russian fuel "has no alternative", and that he "understands the context" of the situation in Ukraine.
 
Conversation with Lavrov after the invasion
 
Shortly after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February, the BiH Embassy of that country announced on Facebook that Dodik and Sergey Lavrov had spoken.
 
They stated that "an exchange of views on the implementation of the agreements reached after the meeting of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Milorad Dodik in Moscow in December 2021 took place, and that "steps have been outlined to intensify efforts in this direction".
 
The official Kremlin did not issue a statement about the December meeting, but later confirmed it.
After his return from Moscow, Dodik told the Radio and Television of Republika Srpska (RTRS) that he informed Putin about the situation in BiH, as well as his wishes to return jurisdiction from BiH to the RS, which, in the meantime, was abandoned.
 
Trifunović: The question is what did Dodik agree with Putin
The editor of the Buka portal from Banjaluka, Aleksandar Trifunović, points out for RSE that from the Embassy's statement it can be inferred that Dodik made agreements with Putin that are not known to the people who elected him.
 
"I think that the entire essence of Russia's relationship with Milorad Dodik is in the announcement itself, and that is - we know that you use these meetings, all the ones so far with Putin, to show those who elect you that you have good relations with him, but on the other hand, it costs ", warns Trifunović. He assesses that Dodik has not yet fulfilled his part of the agreement - but that he has not received much, such as cheaper fuel or favorable loans.
 
"I don't think there is any additional motive for him to be good with Russia, except for the political support he gets by showing his closeness with Russian leaders," Trifunović pointed out.
 
He reminds that November is approaching and the end of the EUFOR Althea mission, which, according to him, the Russians will certainly not support, just as they did not support the high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
 
"Russia will do everything in its power to embitter the presence of the international community in BiH, on the one hand, and on the other hand, we will see how much Milorad Dodik will be a player in that scenario who will do part of those jobs for Russia," he believes. "The majority of people living in the RS are big 'fans' of Russia, and demonstrating political love for the Russian political elite, at this moment for Putin, on the part of local politicians only means a gain, not a loss of that popularity," Trifunović points out.
 
Dodik is the owner of Russian state decorations, the Order of the Society and the Order of Peter the Great with a ribbon, while the Russian Patriarch Kirill presented him with the award of the Unity Fund of Orthodox Nations.
 
The awards also went in the opposite direction. While he was the president of the RS, in 2018, Dodik awarded the Order of the RS on a necklace, the highest decoration in this BiH entity, to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as well as to Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of Russia.
 
'Night wolves' and Dodik
 
The Russian motorcycle group close to Putin, "Night Wolves", is also close to Dodik.
They have their members in the RS, and they are regular visitors to the parade on the occasion of the Day of the RS, which is celebrated on January 9, and which the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has twice declared unconstitutional.
 
The leader of this group, Aleksandar Zaldostanov "Surgeon", on the occasion of RS Day 2018, received from Dodik the Order of Honor with Golden Rays "for particularly emphasizing and affirming human rights, tolerance between people and nations, the rule of law and freedom, as well as strengthening friendly relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Srpska".
 
"Wolves" and Zaldostanov have been blacklisted by the United States since 2014, due to their involvement in the then-current conflicts in Ukraine.
In 2014, representatives of this group presented Dodik with a vest and sweater with the coat of arms of the RS and "Night Wolves".
 
Russian-Serbian temple in Banja Luka
 
For four years, a Russian-Serbian temple and cultural center has been under construction in Banja Luka.
According to announcements, the Russian language and other subjects should be studied in the center.
 
In June, Dodik, together with the clergy of the Banja Luka eparchy of the Serbian Orthodox Church, visited the construction site of the temple, which will be dedicated to the Russian Romanov imperial family.
At the time, he pointed out that around 10 million euros had been invested in the temple, and that it was expected that the exterior works could be finished next year.
The project was put on the priority list for financing from the budget by the decision of the Entity Government on February 10.