A look at the turbulent events in Kosovo

 

The latest events are the setting up of barricades on roads and border crossings, where armed (secret) police from Serbia and masked criminals sit with local Serbs. According to a survey by Slobodna Europa, the trucks blocking the roads are all from Serbia. The barricades were allegedly set up due to the arrest of former Serbian policeman Dejan Pantić, but actually on the order of Vučić along with contractors on the ground: the inevitable Srpska list (SL) and its vice-president Milan Radoičić. Let us recall the meeting of the National Security Council, where it was decided to ask Kfor for permission to send a number of police officers from Serbia to Kosovo in accordance with UN Resolution 1244. The answer did not arrive, although these ideas were rejected by Gabriel Eskobar, the special envoy of the USA for the Western Balkans, as well as by German officials who, because of this, found themselves under a barrage of insults from the highest officials of Serbia. All in all, and without the permission of KFOR, an armed line-up arrived from Serbia at the barricades. That's how a crisis arose that Kurti can't solve. He said that if the Kosovo police responded, there could be victims, so he was additionally attacked for his willingness to kill Serbs at the barricades. We are waiting for an outcome that is not predictable at the moment.

 

In the case of such tense situations, it is necessary to ask what is to be achieved by prolonging the conflict. The answers are ambiguous and should be treated as probable hypotheses. One assumption is that the provoking of the conflict in Kosovo is actually done under the influence and at the expense of Russia, which is responsible for opening another conflict in Europe, and this can be achieved most quickly in the unstable Balkans, more precisely in the already open conflict between Serbia and Kosovo.

 

This assumption is also confirmed by the attitude of the citizens of Serbia towards the most important event on European soil - Russia's aggression against Ukraine in February and the war that has been going on for almost 10 months with no end in sight. At the same time, Serbia has not and will not impose sanctions on Russia, which would be its obligation as a candidate for EU membership, although all European countries have done so, including those that are not candidates. Serbia, or rather Vučić, will not do that. Pro-Russian sentiment and support for Russia dominates in Serbia, with the growing influence of extreme right-wing organizations. Tying Serbian politics to Russia is not a new thing. Let's just remember the long-term radical government that was Russophile and relied on Russia. Once again we have radicals in power and undisguised and very loud Russophilism that Aleksandar Vučić has been producing in his numerous media for 10 years. Putinophily is also produced. He himself visited Putin 19 times. Russian influence is strong and open in the Republika Srpska and in Montenegro as well, that is, wherever the idea of a Serbian world (the dream of the so-called Greater Serbia) spreads, which, according to the ruling theory, cannot be realized without Russia. He won't do it with her either, because she has become a second-rate force. The expectations of some right-wing, nationalist parties (Dveri, Zavetnici) and intellectuals that the war in Ukraine will change the geostrategic constellation of the world, which will become more favorable for the famous Serbian national interests, are in vain.

 

Vučić regularly consults with the Russian ambassador. Even the other day, Marija Zaharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, delivered the supposed solution for Kosovo to Bocan-Harčenko, the Russian ambassador to Serbia. Maybe that is exactly what is at work now. It should also be said that Vučić allowed Russian propaganda on the Russia Today (RT) portal, which is entrenched in the EU. The Wagner Center in Belgrade was recently opened. There has been a Russian spy center in Niš for a long time, under the name of the Center for Assistance in Emergency Situations (floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.), although it has not proved to be useful in such situations.

 

The fact that one must count on Russian influence in Vučić's actions, and also on meeting Russia's wishes to open another conflict in Europe, is confirmed by the latest research data of the Center for Security Policy, which almost dramatically confirms the pro-Russian sentiment: only 12 percent of our citizens believe that is Russia to blame for the war in Ukraine, 44 percent justify not imposing sanctions on Russia, the majority believes that the West is to blame for that war, and that Serbia's biggest enemies are NATO and the USA. Russia is not so popular in Serbia because of what it is today, but because it is not the West. As a counterweight to the West, Russia is seen as a savior. (Data and interpretations were taken from the newspaper Danas from 17.12.2022). The percentage of citizens who want to join the EU is in constant decline and does not exceed about 40 percent. So, the first factor, perhaps not the most important, for a possible "armed conflict" in Kosovo is the influence of Russia and Putin on Vučić and Serbia.

 

Another, probably stronger influence on raising tensions in Kosovo is the impending signing of a binding agreement on the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. The agreement is known as the German-French proposal, which has been changed several times and worded in such a way that it is difficult to reject it, as Vučić himself admitted. Since the EU and the US are in a hurry to close this dangerous hole as soon as possible due to the war in Ukraine, it is in Vučić's interest that the negotiations on the German-French proposal be postponed for numerous reasons. One is the majority mood of the citizens, which he incited himself. We also know that he cares most and above all about his own government and the support of the now multiplied extreme right-wing Russophile and renegade organizations, which may be absent if he indirectly and informally supports the recognition of Kosovo and its entry into international organizations by signing the proposal. Increased right-wing

 

That's why Vučić came out with open cards right now. He said that the barricades will be removed if Kurti makes the ZSO, which is otherwise in line with the Brussels agreement. However, the problem is that so far it has not been specified what this ZSO is, whether it is the autonomy of the North, which would also have the prerogatives of the authorities, or whether it is the community of the northern and perhaps all municipalities with a Serbian majority, which independently decides on health care, education, social issues and some other similar activities. Kurti rejected the idea of ZSO, but under the pressure of the armed barricades and the USA, he will probably return to the issue. The postponement of reaching the Franco-German proposal on the normalization of relations will depend on how long the agreements on what the ZSO is and whether there will be an agreement on that issue at all. With the barricades, Vučić is putting pressure on the formation of the ZSO before the eventual informal recognition of Kosovo as a state. On the other hand, Kurti has repeatedly said that the ZSO will be formed after the recognition of Kosovo.

 

Whether the ZSO, whatever that means, will be formed before or after the informal recognition of Kosovo, whether there will be an agreement about the ZSO, whether there will be a war (which is unlikely) is impossible to predict, as well as the whole unfolding of the "Kosovo nodes". Vučić's most sincere desire - to secede and annex the North of Kosovo to Serbia, which was already on the table in the negotiations with former President Thaci, has already failed once, but this intention may survive in some other combination, or it will remain just a mere wish in his obsession. the "Serbian world".

 

For now, the situation in Kosovo stands at dangerous barricades. The influences are known, the outcome is unknown.

 

Peščanik.net, 22.12.2022.