400,000 soldiers for Putin. How does Russia seek reserves for the war in Ukraine?

Rumors of a second wave of mobilization are spreading, and the Kremlin and the State Duma assure that there is no cause for concern. Voronezh, Penza and Lipetsk regions were the first to issue mass calls.

By March 16, the human rights organization "Agora" had identified 43 regions where subpoenas are being served. The list includes Moscow, St. Petersburg and places far from the center — Altai, Dagestan and Udmurtia. There is no information about Chechnya. The capital's military commissars went even further, asking students who had been released from the army to apply for invitations.

In an interview with RTVI, the deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Yuriy Shvitkin, explained that handing over the summons does not mean immediately sending the men to Ukraine.

 

"After the summons, a notification must be issued. When looking at who received the summons, you need to take a special look. There are some nuances, that is, he can receive the summons as a conscript or, roughly speaking, be subject to mobilization. This is important to know. The father of three children can to be a recruiting person", commented this politician.

Speaking to reporters on March 15, President Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov answered a question about the second wave of mobilization: "We have talked many times. We have no discussions on this matter. As for updating the database, its refinement is, once again, a constant work. As for all the details, you can contact the military commissions and the Ministry of Defense for clarification."

The head of the "Agora" group, Pavlo Čikov, notes that it is too early to connect the mass sharing of calls with the alleged second wave of mobilization. Russians can be called to the military commissariat for information clarification and during the selection period for military training. But this last reason raises a number of questions, since the meetings are held only after the decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and not based on the decision of local officials.

"Those invited to military training have a special status, an individual so mobilized is not yet a formal military person, but his rights do not differ much from the rights of military personnel," says Mihail Romanov, a member of the "Lawyers and Business" collegium.

"Russian mobilization laws allow the military commissars to interpret them quite freely. People who were included in the first wave of mobilization, after entering the military commissariat, practically could not leave it. If a person appeared at the military commissariat, he was conscripted, and he is in fact a military officer. He will go and serve wherever he is ordered," said Romanov.

Since April, the Ministry of Defense of Russia has employed 400,000 contract workers

The publication Ura.ru, citing sources in the leadership of the Urals, writes about the plans of the Ministry of Defense of Russia to recruit up to 400,000 people in the near future. Large-scale recruitment is expected to begin in April, along with spring recruitment. And the unofficial preparations started back in February, according to the interlocutors.

According to the agency, the campaign is personally controlled by the Deputy President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev. Since February 22, he has regularly held thematic meetings in which governors and authorized representatives of the president participate.

 

The quotas according to the contracts were brought to the regional authorities. For example, the norm for the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions is an average of 10,000 signatures by the end of the year. For the Perm region, less than 9,000 people, says a source in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District government. Contract workers are engaged by military commissars in the field.

The governors of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions ordered the mayors to control employment in the municipalities. City councils have already begun to advertise the employment of contract workers for service in the far north, in the navy and at military command posts across Russia. And in April, according to the interlocutor, the IT company will be strengthened.

In the Perm region, the issue of equipment insurance for future employees under a work contract is being resolved.

The coalition of Russian human rights defenders believes that the activation of the military committees is a sign of the beginning of a new wave of mobilization. Back in October, recruits received invitations stating that according to the presidential decree on "partial mobilization", they should arrive at the military commissariats

 

Executive director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Vadim Denisenko, in an interview with Focus, points out that rotation in the ranks of the Russian army should not be expected before August. During the spring conscription, they will be forced to sign military contracts for service in Ukraine.

"A man comes with an invitation to the Military Commissariat, and they tell him: look, we can take you just like that, or on a contract - it will be better that way," says Denisenko.

It should be noted that the distribution of subpoenas is part of the implementation of Putin's decree to increase the number of military personnel by 137,000 from January 1, 2023.

 

Will buy weapons from North Korea - how can Russia supply recruits?

 

Looking at Putin's military ambitions, the question arises - does Moscow have enough resources for a new phase of the conflict? The American publication Politico, citing customs data, learns that China has supplied Russian companies with up to 1,000 assault rifles, parts of drones and other equipment for military purposes.

And in December 2022, according to the publication, the Russian Federation bought more than 800 tons of armored personnel carriers from Turkey. Vadim Denisenko is sure that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation can solve the issue of supplying troops with small arms and food.

"Despite the budget deficit in the region of six to seven trillion rubles and the collection of about 300 billion rubles from companies, the money will remain for pensions, salaries of officials and members of the security forces, as well as for the war. Unfortunately, they will have enough money," says Denisenko. for Focus.

In the event of a lack of weapons, Russia will order from North Korea, but as far as heavy weapons are concerned, the possibilities are narrowing, according to Denisenko.

"Despite the opening of production lines in weapons factories, it will be difficult to provide 400,000 soldiers with precision weapons. There is time, because they will be assembled for four to six months, and after that there will be training," added Denisenko.

Military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov points out the difference in the amount of mobilization resources between Ukraine and Russia.

"There is a constant rotation in the Armed Forces of Russia - the front and rear ranks are getting bigger. They don't want to declare a state of emergency and full mobilization and use a different method - calling the military commissariat and checking passport data so that the men themselves sign contracts with the Russian army," Zhirokhov told Focus.

The expert notes the intensification of employment in various private groups, especially in the "Wagner" Group.

 

"Conscripted soldiers can be trained until June 2023, not earlier. Ukraine is in danger, because the Russian armed forces impose a style of fighting like during World War II - whoever has more personnel, has an advantage. Until we have enough Western weapons that are superior to the Soviet one, whoever has more men will win. The old Russian T-62 tanks shoot and kill. Until we reach the occupier for every one of our dead soldiers," noted Zhirokhov.

 

Putin loses initial casus belli in Ukraine

 

Professor of the British Academy and the Department of Military Studies of King's College London, David Zhoe, in an article for Foreign Policy magazine, draws attention to Putin's desire to get out of the trap of a major war in Ukraine. For that he needs new soldiers - the constant engine of war.

Vladimir Putin found himself in the situation of many world leaders who were forced to justify the continuation of the war, when the initial casus belli (formal pretext for starting the war) failed. The setbacks required new troops in the face of rising military costs, the text said.

"Officials in the George W. Bush administration changed their position on the war in Iraq as soon as it became clear that Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction. The original purpose of the invasion evaporated like water in the desert. The Taliban in Afghanistan were overthrown by the end of 2001. , but American troops remained for the next two decades. Their ignominious departure returned the Taliban to power," the author writes.

To lose men and resources and have nothing to show for those losses is a disaster for any leader of any country, and to end the war in a worse position than at the beginning is even worse. Putin realizes that if he loses, he will be blamed for all the failures. Like most dictators, he is very afraid of his own people, Zhou noted.

"If Putin was interested in building a strong state within his borders, and not chasing after imperial fantasies, he would be remembered as a successful state builder. Instead, for many decades, Russia will be recovering from the deep and painful scars of Putin's wars," the Washington Post quotes an excerpt from Marco Galeotti's book Putin's Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine.