Why are Finland and Sweden joining NATO?

Finland and Sweden need to join NATO in the near future. Putin gained almost 1,300 kilometers of the border with the Alliance

Sweden and Finland have officially announced their intention to apply for NATO membership. The main motive is Russia's aggression against Ukraine. As a result, instead of "redistributing the world", Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will gain more than 1,200 kilometers of border with the Alliance and its complete dominance in the Baltic Sea.
How Russia is reacting to the expansion of the Alliance, trying to revive the CSTO, and how Ukraine can use the experience of the Scandinavian countries and get closer to NATO membership.
WHAT HAPPENED. On May 15, the political leaders of Finland and Sweden officially announced their intention to apply for NATO membership. Decisions should be supported by parliaments in the coming days. There should be no problem with that, because in Sweden, the leading Social Democratic Party, which was previously a stronghold of the idea of neutrality, supported NATO membership.
CERTIFICATE. Sweden has in principle not joined military alliances for more than 200 years, and Finland has remained neutral since World War II. If Sweden had constant discussions about membership in the Alliance, Finland flirted with the USSR in exchange for economic preferences (so-called finishing), says Pavel Klimkin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
But Russia's aggression against Ukraine in full force forced the countries to reconsider their positions. There should be no problem with the admission of these two countries to NATO membership.
"If they decide to apply, it will be a historic moment," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on May 15. "Their membership in NATO will strengthen our common security, show that NATO's doors remain open and that aggression will not pass."
And while 30 members of the alliance are considering the requests, Sweden and Finland will receive security guarantees from the United States and the United Kingdom.
Sweden and Finland became NATO's official partners in 1994, work closely with Allied forces and have long been integrated into NATO for interoperability. The main change is the fifth member of the North Atlantic Treaty, which considers an attack on one member of the Alliance an attack on all. This will now apply to the two new countries.
For NATO, this is also an obvious victory, says Alina Frolova, Ukraine's deputy defense minister and deputy president of the Center for Defense Strategies
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"Greater control over the region gives NATO more opportunities to prevent war on its own territory. Regional security is strengthening," Frolova said.

WHY IT IS IMPORTANT. As expected, the intentions of the Swedes and Finns were not to the liking of Putin and his associates. Russia's foreign ministry is threatening to respond to Finland with "steps of a military-technical nature". And for the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, that was another reason to mention the possibility of a nuclear strike.
On May 13, Putin discussed with the Security Council potential "security threats" to Russia due to the decisions of Finland and Sweden, and the next day, Russia announced the suspension of electricity supplies to Finland.
Putin mentioned his "alternative" to NATO and gathered the leaders of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) in the Kremlin on May 16. In addition to Russia, the OKDB includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Klimkin is convinced that Putin convened the CSTO because of Finland and Sweden.
"Putin sees that NATO is getting stronger. Sweden and Finland have significant defense potential. NATO will have a longer border with Russia. This is a slap in the face to Putin," Klimkin said.
At a CSTO meeting, Putin said the two countries' accession to NATO did not threaten Russia. But expanding NATO's military infrastructure on their territory "will provoke Russia's response." He did not specify what it would be.
The CSTO meeting ended in disgrace. The issue of the use of CSTO forces in Ukraine has not been raised, and Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan has publicly criticized the Russian military bloc for inactivity during the conflict with Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabakh in 2020.
In addition, no one but Lukashenko and Putin has raised the issue of war with Ukraine. The meeting showed the futility of attempts to inflate the mythical status of the CSTO, which should be compared not with NATO, but with the Commonwealth of Independent States, "said Mikhail Pashkov, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center.
According to Klimkin, the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO radically changes the situation in the Baltic Sea.
"NATO will control the Baltic, and Putin will do nothing," Klimkin said.
But for Putin, the Arctic is more critical. Finland and Sweden are major factors in Arctic security.
The entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO will mean the strategic defeat of Russia and the collapse of Putin's geopolitics, according to the head of the permanent delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Yegor Chernev (SN).

"Instead of redistributing the world, changing the world order and pushing NATO to the 1997 borders, Russia will get more than 1,200 kilometers of border with the Alliance and full NATO dominance in the Baltic Sea," Chermev added.
WHAT'S NEXT. The decision on the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will probably be made at the Alliance's summit in Madrid from June 29 to 30. Although it can happen before. It could take two weeks from the time the application is submitted to the signing of the accession protocols, German media reported, citing a NATO envoy.
 
Turkey can be an obstacle for Swedes and Finns. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said there could be "no positive view of the issue in Turkey" because Sweden and Finland had given refuge to "terrorists".
CERTIFICATE. By "terrorists", Erdogan means activists of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an illegal Kurdish political organization. In Turkey, the PKK is considered a terrorist organization. There is a Kurdish diaspora in Finland and Sweden, and even Kurdish MPs in Sweden.
Klimkin is convinced that Erdogan is not blocking the membership of Finland and Sweden, but wants to seize the moment and resolve the issue of support for the Kurds. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has compiled a list of requirements it considers necessary for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. The main one is the refusal to support the PKK and related forces of the People's Self-Defense (YPG, part of the Syrian Democratic Forces Alliance, whose main opponent is Turkey).
The foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland have announced their intention to visit Ankara for consultations with their Turkish counterpart. Erdogan advises Scandinavian diplomats "not to worry about travel", because changing Turkey's position is "impossible".
"I am convinced that the dispute between Turkey with Sweden and Finland will be resolved quickly," Chernev said.
That is why Putin wants to restore the status quo from February 23 and start the talks he pushed the West into, Klimkin said. "Putin needs to raise as much as possible in order to start negotiations from a position of strength," Klimkin added.
To do that, Russia will follow its favorite option - provocations, says Pashkov.
"This will be another drawing of red lines, which NATO can use in the confrontation with Russia. I don't think there will be direct armed aggression or a nuclear strike on Finland. But political and financial pressure will begin," the expert said.
Frolova says Putin has no chance of bargaining for better positions due to provocations against Finland and Sweden.
"He has crossed the line of provocation. He can only threaten with tactical nuclear weapons. And the increase in provocations will be the behavior of an offended boy who has not been given what he wants," Frolova said.
The decision of Finland and Sweden gives Ukraine a serious opportunity to join NATO, Frolova said.
"First, we are currently fighting NATO's modern methodology of warfare. This is the conservation of human resources and a tactical operational approach. That is all we have been taught by foreign instructors," she said. And we will not return. "
According to her, the main reason why Ukraine was not admitted to NATO, were threats of Russia's aggressive behavior.
"But she is already behaving aggressively. That is, the main obstacle was removed by the Russians themselves," Frolova said.