What awaits the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian Federation in 2025?

The Radio Liberty project "Novosti iz Azov", together with experts, analyzed how the past year looked like for the residents of the southern part of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation and whether the occupied territories can become a subject of agreement in the eventual negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in 2025.

According to the norms of international law, the forced imposition of citizenship is a violation of the Geneva Conventions. However, Russia ignores these principles. For those who do not want to take Russian passports, the occupiers are trying to limit basic human rights. This refers to the provision of medical services, social benefits, etc. Also, without a Russian passport, citizens lose their movable and immovable property.

The first deputy president of the Kherson regional council Yuriy Sobolevski told "Novosti Azov" that people who have not yet received Russian passports are under extreme pressure from the occupation administration. It is almost impossible to survive without these documents.

"There are threats from the occupiers to deport these people. And in connection with the fact that their property, especially housing, will be confiscated. Because, of course, these people did not register their property in the Russian registers. These people do not actually have access to medical services. This is a very complicated story every time, to simply measure a person's blood pressure in this FAP (Fedelsko-obstetric center - prim. author.). In the new year, it will be even more difficult, because even vehicles with Ukrainian state plates will actually be prohibited for use on the territory of the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region. This is another such element of pressure," said Sobolevski.

The politician reminded that people without a Russian passport in the occupation can neither get a job nor get money for agricultural shares after leasing.

 

 

"The passport of the Russian Federation is not an indicator of loyalty"

 

Sobolevski noted that obtaining Russian passports is not an indication of the local population's loyalty to the occupiers or the occupation itself.

 

"This is actually happening under duress, as worthless as maintaining the so-called referendum on the status of this territory, which was allegedly a manifestation of will. That is, this is an artificial story that does not reflect the true mood of the people. The filtering measures don't stop, the terror doesn't stop. People are disappearing, people are being arrested, there are now cases of people being prosecuted for making a donation once or twice in 2022 to support the Armed Forces. Not to the accounts of the Ministry of Defense, they simply transferred money to someone to buy something for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That is enough to be considered financing of terrorism there," added Sobolevski.

According to the Center of National Resistance, the low pace of issuing passports is the main problem of the occupation administrations in the occupied territories. It is this process that destroys the propaganda myth of support for Russia by the local population, sources note.

Volodymyr Saldo, who was appointed by the Kremlin to manage the occupied part of the Kherson region, said in the fall that more than 250,000 residents of the region had allegedly received Russian passports and that "active work in this direction continues."

Ukraine does not recognize Russian documents issued in the occupied territories. Ombudsman Dmitro Lubinec emphasized that the forced issuance of passports is an attempt to legitimize the occupation and change the national identity of the local population.

 

"Control of all spheres of life"

 

More than 350,000 people reportedly received Russian passports in the occupied part of the Zaporozhye region last year. This year, the occupation administration did not provide new figures.

The head of the Zaporozhye regional military administration, Ivan Fedorov, emphasized that even those who have received Russian passports face risks - their property can still be confiscated, and the residents themselves - deported. There is no protection from these actions, said the head of the region.

Serhiy Lishenko, deputy of the regional council of Zaporizhzhya, told "Novosti iz Azov" that the occupation administration is trying to control all spheres of life in the region and identify those who have not yet received a Russian passport.

"Employers are monitored to ensure that all employees have a Russian passport, pension authorities are requested to hand over pensions exclusively to those who have a Russian passport. As a result, fewer and fewer people can live without a Russian passport. Deportation also threatens those who have not received a passport of the Russian Federation. But no one saw the documents in which it was written," Lishenko said.

The persecution of residents of the occupied territories continues, regardless of whether they have received Russian passports or not, says the deputy.

 

"The most widespread form of pressure is, of course, the presence of the army in the territory, the danger to life and health that they can represent, etc. Secondly, it is a constant threat that the inhabitants of the occupied territories will end up in the command or basement. And no one is immune from this. This applies not only to political actions, but also to the economy and business. "There are already a lot of cases where people who agreed to cooperate with collaborators, filled some positions, that is, became collaborators, are currently in Russian prisons on charges of embezzlement or some kind of sabotage," Lishenko emphasized.

 

"Foreign passports in Mariupol"

 

In Mariupol and the Mariupol district, almost 100 percent of the population has already received Russian passports. Such information was presented by the head of the Center for the Study of Occupations, former adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushchenko. According to him, a new trend has already appeared in the region this year - Russian foreign passports are issued there.

"2023 year was the heyday of passports. If we talk about passporting in Mariupol this year, certain changes have taken place here. First, they started issuing foreign passports to the citizens of Mariupol, and many were able to get them. The deadline for obtaining a passport has been shortened. And a very large number of people received passports who came to Mariupol as an evacuee, in order to re-register their housing there and then leave it, for example. And we had a separate branch. I will repeat again, 2023 was the main year, when people were actually told that they had no choice but to get passports," Andryushchenko said.

Given the hostilities and the Russian occupation of parts of the southern territories of Ukraine, the editorial office cannot obtain official confirmation of some of the statements made or independently verify them.

 

"Improving Logistics for the Russian Army"

 

During 2024, the occupiers were not able to start the economy of the occupied regions, notes the Center of National Resistance. It is emphasized here that the budget of settlements and regions in the occupied territories shows the "absence of life" in the regions. 80 percent of the income is subsidies from Russia, in second place is the personal income tax (from the salaries of public sector employees, which is also financed by the Kremlin).

In October of this year, Russian pro-government media announced that the Kremlin annually allocates more than 1.5 trillion rubles for the "new" occupied territories. These funds are allegedly spent on social benefits, pensions and infrastructure.

 

In December of this year, it was announced that the Russian government decided to allocate an additional 1.8 billion rubles to the budgets of the occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. This is justified by the costs for, as stated, the reconstruction and socio-economic development of the region.

Jurij Sobolevski said that there is no economic profit in the occupied parts of the Kherson region. The only thing Russia really invests in is the construction of roads, which serve primarily for military logistics.  

 

"Indeed, they invested to earn such a land corridor to Crimea, that was important to them. We understand that for the most part the same military goals are pursued, that's why they really invested in these routes and have certain achievements there. As far as the creation of a new city or residential areas, nothing really happened here. Minimal activity, cosmetic fixes, some items appeared somewhere, but this is an artificial story. It does not have a systemic or mass character. "As far as housing is concerned, their achievements in the housing fund are only due to the confiscation of property that they recognized as "ownerless", which was transferred to their municipal property, as they call it," Sobolevski reminded.

In the sphere of agriculture, the occupation administration tries to create an image of support for farmers by implementing certain programs.

"They are trying to implement something to get some kind of loyalty from these people. But the market is actually controlled by the occupation administration. There are no more economic gains there. Creation of the financial system, establishment of banks, mobile operators, internet, communications, television - all this is not economics, it is exclusively state regulation", said Sobolevski.

 

"An attempt to show integration"

 

This year, roads were also built in the occupied territory of the Zaporizhia region. In addition, a railway connection is being built in the region, which should connect the Azov region with the Crimea. Serhij Lishenko, deputy of the regional council of Zaporozhye, noted that there are no other large projects in these territories.

"They actually built, repaired, widened roads, that is, they did some work. In the region of Zaporozhye, works on the construction of the railroad are underway, but they do not meet the deadlines that they announced at the beginning, some works are being carried out there, and funds are allocated for that. Some attempts to demonstrate integration into the all-Russian economic system are, of course, being made," he says.

 

There is no big business in the temporarily occupied territories, the occupation administration primarily deals with the redistribution of companies that existed there - changing owners, adjusting their work within the Russian economic system, Lishenko said.

 

"So they took and built a new factory from scratch in Melitopol or Berdjansk, I haven't heard of such a thing, I think they would know about it, but no. In terms of development, Russia has an economy with a high degree of centralization. But still, this is a market economy. Because it happens that business has to invest in development and projects. And who will invest in territories whose status is unclear, which are close to the war zone and, relatively speaking, when a decision will be made tomorrow on their return, and people have invested money. Therefore, only budget funds or some insignificant amounts are invested in development," the MP added.

 

In Mariupol, the Russian army is already using the railway line that connects the region with Russia's Rostov. Petro Andryushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation, told "Novosti iz Azov" that the railroad is connected to the port of Mariupol and to the military base that, according to him, was formed by the Russian Federation.

"This is a very, very threatening situation first of all from the point of view of military logistics. It does not carry out any other cargo, except the robbery that is carried out from the occupied territories, the transport of military cargo. It works the same way as a port - partially. But if last year there was only grain, then this year, at the beginning of the year there was grain, and at the end of the year we already saw something completely different. We saw our guts, our metal, including the waste. It is clear that they are building roads, especially those leading to Crimea," Andryushchenko said.

Mortgage apartments are also being built in Mariupol, says Andryushchenko. But Russians will be settled there, not residents of Mariupol.

 

"The main pressure exerted on the residents of Mariupol is the compulsion to leave the territory of Mariupol and the liberation of Mariupol for the Russians. Only people are not given housing to replace the destroyed ones. Russians go for mortgaged residential buildings, which are massively acquired there. Indeed, there are quite a few. It is the only city in the occupied territory controlled by Russia, including the territories of Russia, where preferential mortgages are given at two percent. That's why they go from Moscow, they go from St. Petersburg, they buy these residential units simply for zero, the prices are rising inadequately", says Andryushchenko.

He claims that other spheres in Mariupol are also in decline. It draws attention to the fact that there is no industrial or other production in the city. He called the economic situation in the region "worse than in the 90s".

 

Policy of the Russian Federation for 2025

 

Doctor of sociological sciences, head of the Institute for the Study of Conflict and Analysis of Russia, Aleksandar Shulga, believes that Russia will continue to invest in the development of the conquered territories. But it will continue to integrate these regions into its legislative field.

"I don't really believe that Russia will be able or willing to make a so-called showcase of the occupied territories. Well, they made a window out of Crimea, so nothing could be done with this display case. This especially applies to Donetsk, Luhansk, the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Enormous forces will be focused on bringing schools and kindergartens in these areas to stricter standards in terms of propaganda. This, of course, will be a completely distorted teaching of the reality of recent events in Ukrainian and Russian history. They will effectively push out those they deem disloyal. And, of course, actually forcing people to completely switch to Russian laws and legal relations," predicts the expert.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will never recognize the occupied territories as Russian. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that peace in Ukraine is possible, especially in the case of the loss of part of the territory of the east and south. Šulga believes that in possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, attention will primarily be focused on ending hostilities, and only then on the occupied territories.

"The year 2025 opens up possibilities from a formal point of view for negotiations, but negotiations do not mean the end of even the hot phase of the war. And not only that, but we know that Russia likes to escalate the situation even more during the negotiations, so that later in exchange for a concession - an end to the escalation - something else could be obtained. In the occupied territories, it is unlikely that we will see rapid changes in a positive direction, because first of all, the attention will be focused on ending the hostilities and on the conditions under which this will be done. However, after that, of course, the problem of the occupied territories will come up very sharply," said Šulga.

 

 

"Prepare territories for reintegration"

 

Whenever there is a de-occupation of the territory, Ukraine should already prepare for reintegration, Shulga believes.

"The Russians will not have any rights in these territories. Deporting them from the territory of Ukraine will not only be morally satisfactory, but also an absolutely legal step. And Ukraine should immediately talk about it, so that there are no accusations later. History knows many examples when the occupation lasted more than 10 years, even 20 to 30 years. De-occupation does not mean full integration of these territories immediately. Especially after such barbaric methods that Russia uses in the occupied territories - brainwashing children, changing identities, culturocide. It must be admitted: the longer this

occupation lasts, the more difficult reintegration will be. But, I repeat, there are many examples that, despite a very long occupation, reintegration is still happening," the expert added.