Unlimited war. Why is Putin preparing to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, 2025?

 

With a high degree of probability, we can assume that Putin has set himself a new deadline for the end of the war - eighty years of victory in the Patriotic War. But also, with a high degree of probability, we can say that this day will not become a holiday for Putin.

Putin held a long meeting (not the first, but the first of this size). Starting to prepare for a celebration like this a year and a half in advance is, of course, an extraordinary event, and it obviously goes beyond an ordinary celebration. In fact, this holiday apparently boils down to at least three aspects in the minds of Putin and his entourage:

 

1. The complete unity of Russians around the idea of victory and Putin as its personification. In this context, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the March presidential election is no longer considered a real election, it is a referendum on Putin's right to unlimited (in all aspects) war. If it's even simpler: it's a referendum on the fact that war is more important than refrigerators. This is the most painful issue for the Kremlin, because problems with the ruble and rising prices have become a key problem for the entire Russian population. The game that Putin has been playing for the last year and a half has been reduced to a simple formula: "The main thing is that it is not worse" - now it is starting to burst at the seams. The people say in all the polls that it has gotten worse, but now a key aspect of the Kremlin's propaganda is desperately seeking a replacement for this formula: it is all too obvious that life in material terms is getting worse. And in fact, this, as yet unknown formula, will become the basis of the information campaign for the following year. But I'll say it again: Putin made the decision to go to war before his victory, with all the consequences that came from that. And 09.05.2025. the dream is about the near, paradoxical as it sounds, end of the war. And there is hope for the Russian population that they will only have to suffer until May 2025.

2. This is a demonstration to all negotiators that Putin does not need mediators yet and that he will now solve his own problems. Negotiations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indirectly confirmed this: two days have passed, and we still haven't heard about the "secret files" that Putin forwards to someone through Erdogan. And the reason is not in secrecy, but, apparently, in the absence of these files. At first glance, this is a strange position related to Putin's main negotiating point. He knows only one technique: to raise the stake, and then he decided that until he has nothing to raise the stake, he will not negotiate. Now he's frantically looking for what could be the reason for raising the stakes: the failed war in Niger, new technologies for the DPRK that he won't be able to transfer, or something else - I don't know yet. Putin is frantically looking for ways to up the ante.

3. Tightening the screws in the Russian Federation, primarily for mass media and elites. So far, the Kremlin has managed to take full control of Telegram channels and military forces. But at the same time, the system built over decades has cracked: until now, every segment of Russian society had its own set of competing mass media. Now, a large part of Russian society, which sought the truth about the situation at the front or in the top, precisely from the conscripts or from Prigozhin's media fund, has lost its own, "verified" source of information. And here, no matter how strange it sounds, a small window of opportunity opens for the mass media, which can become such sources of information for some Russians. Other supporters of the military are trying to gather information little by little, but for Ukraine another thing is important: in the Russian Federation, a war has begun to marginalize part of the patriot fans. The Kremlin's formula is simple: if you support our vision of the world, where the 80th anniversary of victory is the apotheosis of everything, and keep silent about the situation on the fronts - you are doing well. If not, the fate of Girkin awaits you. The situation is similar with the elites. Only here the example is not Girkin, but Prigozhin, who was killed despite the fact that Putin had given his word not to touch him and thus broke the 30-year tradition that Putin always keeps his word - and the elections in Khakassia. In Khakassia, the elites were shown: it will be as the Kremlin wants, or nothing. Simply put: Russia is now entering the next round of screwing the nuts, where the consensus of the elites boils down to a new formula for Russia: "everything obeys the idea of Putin and a few people around him to wage unlimited war." And you agree or fail."

These are Putin's plans. But life will make its adjustments (and it does). From the most ridiculous thing — 38 billion dollars stuck in Indian rupees, to the fact that screwed up nuts always create an atmosphere of nervousness, a desire to attack a competitor. In a word, the evolution from "Kiev in three days" to "Victory Day 2025" continues, and Putin will have nothing to celebrate.