Ukrainian grain without a sea: what will happen to exports? 

Due to the massive strikes by the Russian Federation, the Black Sea corridor has practically come to a standstill: ships are not loading, which is already putting pressure on Ukrainian grain exports. Will Ukraine have enough alternatives? 

Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure sharply intensified in the summer of 2026, the security situation in the Black Sea has deteriorated due to Russian attacks on civilian ships. Some ships have stopped docking in Odessa ports, domestic grain prices are falling, while world prices, on the contrary, are rising. Ukrainian grain exports are under pressure again. Can the Danube, railways and road transport replace the sea route? 

In the first two weeks of July alone, Russia carried out 23 strikes on Ukrainian ports, especially in the Odessa region, and 17 attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea. Dozens of civilians were killed and injured as a result of these attacks. The victims include port workers, employees of enterprises whose activities are related to the work of the maritime industry, as well as foreign citizens - crew members of civilian vessels. The most famous incident occurred on July 19, when Russia hit the civilian bulk carrier GOLDEN LEO under the flag of Guinea-Bissau, owned by a Turkish company, with three X-59/X-69 cruise missiles near Odessa. The ship was loaded with Ukrainian corn. According to the Ukrainian Navy, 10 people died, including the Ukrainian pilot. And on July 26, the hit bulk carrier sank in the Gulf of Odessa along with its cargo. 

According to the Ukrainian Sea Ports Administration (USPA), on the night of July 27, Russia attacked civilian merchant ships in the ports of the Mykolaiv region - those that have been blocked since 2022 and do not make commercial voyages. The attack also resulted in deaths and injuries. 

"This is another deliberate attack by Russia on civilian shipping, demonstrating the systemic nature of Russia's terror against the maritime industry," the USPA said. 

Ukraine calls UN Security Council meeting over Russian Black Sea blockade 

The consequences of Russia’s terror for Ukraine were felt immediately, with foreign ships stopping calling at Ukrainian ports and Danish global container carrier Maersk announcing the cancellation of some voyages due to security risks. 

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks as terrorist and a violation of freedom of navigation and a threat to global food security. 

“Russia’s continued attacks on civilian ships and Ukrainian port infrastructure pose a direct threat to freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. Their consequences extend far beyond Ukraine, affecting regional and global food security,” Ukrainian Acting Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga wrote in a post on the social network X about a conversation with Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi regarding the security situation in the Black Sea. 

The Foreign Ministry said that Ukraine would use all available means to ensure freedom of navigation in Ukrainian ports, exercising the inalienable right of self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Ukraine also initiated the convening of an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on July 27 due to deliberate Russian attacks on civilian ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea, which led to the death of sailors and the virtual cessation of traffic along the Ukrainian sea corridor at the height of the harvest. 

The situation is critical: almost 90 percent of agricultural exports go by sea 

The Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Pavlo Koval, explained to DW how painful the attack on the ports is. According to him, the losses are already real, as the port infrastructure of enterprises and merchant ships are being destroyed, and the shelling has spread from the vicinity of Odessa to the mouth of the Danube. This has already affected the economy of the industry: the price of the new crop on the domestic market is falling, while it is rising on foreign markets. 

“Today, wheat in Ukraine is sold from the fields for about UAH 6,000 per ton, including VAT. If the yield on the farm is low, and spring frosts and winter frosts hit many, then this already means direct losses for producers,” noted Pavlo Koval. 

The scale of dependence on the sea is enormous. According to industry analysts, the ports of Greater Odessa provide about 56 percent of all Ukrainian exports, and almost nine out of 10 tons of agricultural products go by sea. Analyst of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club Maksim Hopka notes in an article on AgroPortal.ua that in January-June 2026, the total volume of exports of basic cereals, oilseeds and products of their processing amounted to about 27.3 million tons. 

"Of this volume, 24.6 million tons, or 88.4 percent, were exported by sea (...) The largest volume in the first half of 2026 was shipped through the port of Chornomorsk - about 10.9 million tons. About 8.3 million tons passed through the port of Pivdenny, and 4.9 million tons of food through the port of Odessa," the expert noted. 

Is there a blockade? 

The key difference compared to 2022, Pavlo Koval emphasizes, is that there is no official blockade by the Russian Federation, nor is there a formal closure of ships from Ukraine. “There are no restrictions on ships from the Ukrainian state. There are objective prerequisites due to military actions, due to which ships do not enter the ports of Odessa for loading. No one has imposed any restrictions, but there is a danger to ships - and even with military insurance against risks, these risks have increased,” Koval explains. 

According to information discussed among traders, at the last meeting with the participation of the president, government officials and the military, two scenarios for the operation of the ports of Greater Odessa were allegedly considered: the first - notification of Ukraine and Russia about the entry of a vessel through the state under whose flag it flies or the shipowner with subsequent refraining from attacks; the second - the introduction of short “silence periods” lasting two to three days. 

Meanwhile, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky, in a comment to Latifundist.com, stated that there are currently no agreements on such mechanisms at the official level. 

"To date, there are no agreements on separate mechanisms for the entry of vessels or cargo. There is no notification mechanism through the flag state or shipowner, nor "windows of silence" lasting two to three days. The corridor functions as it has been functioning until now. There are no official agreements, separate algorithms or exceptions," Vysotsky said. Instead, according to the minister, work is focused on strengthening the security of the existing maritime corridor. Ukraine has not closed shipping and has not imposed restrictions on the entry of ships into ports. 

Will the Danube and the railway save Ukrainian grain? 

Now the main question is whether alternative routes can replace deep-water ports. The Association of Ukrainian Agrarian Business Clubs has already appealed to the Prime Minister of Ukraine with an appeal to urgently take measures to protect Ukrainian exporters in the face of a sharp deterioration in the security situation in the Black Sea. Farmers are demanding the urgent introduction of a convention on loading wagons in the direction of ports in order to avoid a backlog of wagons and their shortage, as well as to officially declare a temporary impossibility of exporting, which will protect exporters from penalties for non-fulfillment of contracts. 

They are also demanding that Ukrainian Railways be instructed to develop a plan for the restoration of alternative export routes across the western border with the possibility of increasing the throughput of "dry" ports and border crossings, and to study the possibility of restoring shipping across the Danube. 

But here too there are problems. Pavlo Koval notes that during the peak months, all land and river routes together provided three to five million tons, while during the busy months Ukraine needs to export five to 6.5 million tons. So, even in the best case, this is only half of the needs. 

At the same time, each of the routes has its own limitations. By rail, through 11 crossings, at the peak, it was possible to transport a little more than a million tons, by road - about 500,000, and by the Danube - 1.5 to two million. However, the Danube ports, the expert warns, are suffering from two troubles at once: Russian bombing at the exit to the Black Sea and the shallowness of the river. 

"The level of the Danube in Budapest has fallen to a historical minimum. In addition, the infrastructure has been destroyed by missile attacks - we need investments and operational impact, but first of all, we need a guarantee of security. You can fix something in a few weeks, but if missiles are constantly flying there, it will be difficult to restore it," says the general director of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation. 

An additional risk is the human factor on transit routes. Koval recalls that the EU's neighbors - Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia - have repeatedly tried to "pull political trump cards out of their sleeves" and take advantage of the situation, as was already the case in previous years. Therefore, in his opinion, land transit will have to be unblocked not only in the capitals, but also at the Brussels level, relying on European legislation, according to which a single member state cannot block EU trade. 

This year's harvest and food security 

Despite everything, the harvest situation is stable. According to Koval, as of the end of July, about 11 to 12 million tons of grain (approximately 20 percent of the area) had been harvested, of which more than six million tons was wheat. Even if half of that is food, this already guarantees domestic food security for a year. 

"We will harvest what has grown. The question is how can we preserve it so that the enemy does not burn the grain in the field or in a bombed silo, and how can we gradually export it," Pavlo Koval notes. 

Currently, the silos are not full, and therefore there is no critical pressure - farmers are holding the grain, waiting for the situation to be resolved. In parallel, according to Taras Vysotsky, the government is working on economic support instruments: lending and providing working capital to farmers so that they do not have to immediately sell the grain at a lower price. There is currently no talk of direct compensation to farmers for the difference in price.