During the last decade or so, the presence and influence of Russia in the Western Balkans, especially in Serbia, is visible. At the same time, in recent times (after 2022), cooperation with Russia shows a decreasing trend, while cooperation and the presence of China is still strong.

The influence of Russia and China stems from various causes and factors:

• The slowing down of the EU enlargement process as well as the emergence of multiple crises in the Union during the last decade (especially the economic and financial crisis, Brexit as well as the influence of populism and Euroscepticism) caused a decrease in the real transformational influence of the Union in the Western Balkans, i.e. a kind of political absence of the EU. Although between 2009 and 2020 NATO expanded to include Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia, this was not quite enough to politically "replace" the practical blockage of the EU enlargement process, especially when it comes to politics in Serbia and BiH. This vacuum was naturally filled by external factors, from China and Russia, via the USA, via Turkey to the Arab countries of the Gulf and others;

• The phenomena of tension and unresolved disputes between the Western Balkan nations have not decreased sufficiently. In particular, the deterioration of the status of Kosovo and the conflicts between Belgrade and Pristina, as well as the deterioration of relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska), were the reason for the participants' efforts to obtain external support from third parties (especially the support of permanent members of the UN Security Council).

•  The economic dynamism of the region, i.e. the government's efforts to ensure growth and attract foreign investment, have enabled the increased presence of China, which fits into its strategic policy of developing the Belt and Road project, i.e. the 16+1 cooperation program with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In this context, China's orientation towards building infrastructure in the region, as well as investment in various sectors, represents a relatively recent or economically, politically and long-term significant phenomenon.

• The nature of energy cooperation with Russia, especially when it comes to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, has not completely decreased in the previous period, despite certain efforts to ensure the diversification of energy suppliers, especially when it comes to gas supply.

• To the above factors, one can add the effort of Russia and China to supplement their presence in the region with "soft power" factors such as propaganda (TV, networks) or strengthening of cultural ties (China). Especially during the period of the covid virus pandemic , both China and Russia tried to measure their health policy and cooperation in the supply of vaccines and other medical materials, strengthen their presence and positive image in relation to reactions from the West, which in the first phase of the pandemic acted confused and uncoordinated (although retroactively observed EU aid and Western vaccines proved to be far more efficient and many times greater than Chinese and Russian ones).  

The war in Ukraine since 2022 has influenced the rise of geopolitical tensions in Europe, as well as in the wider world, and led to an increase in the political sensitivity of the EU and the USA to the presence of Russia, primarily, or China. Unlike Russia, whose influence on the continent has decreased since the time of aggression in Ukraine, China's comprehensive influence is on the rise - and not only in the areas of economy and infrastructure. China's position in the Western Balkans essentially follows its rise as a planetary geopolitical actor in all parts of the world within the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative.

Different influence of Russia and China in individual countries of the Western Balkans

There are different forms and goals of Russia's presence and activity in the Western Balkans. In principle, Russia enjoys popularity in certain parts of the Balkans (culturally Orthodox area) such as Serbia and Republika Srpska, and to some extent, Montenegro and North Macedonia. However, this does not mean that Russia is in a position to prevail over the dominant Western presence and influence. Russia's presence is described more as the operation of a "plaster force", which means that its goal is not to be a geopolitical alternative to the West, but to undermine Western policies and interests in the region, including the process of joining NATO or the EU. The expansion of NATO to the Balkan region limited Russia's activities and propaganda in the region.

Russian influence, to the extent that it is present, is primarily political and related to Russia's conflict with NATO and the EU, while in economic terms it is mostly limited to energy cooperation. The Chinese presence is more long-term in terms of goals and more diverse in terms of instruments. It is primarily oriented towards economic matters (credits, investments, construction of infrastructure, trade, etc.). In recent times, this influence has spread to other authorities, such as culture, as well as political relations (promotion of China's vision of the new world order and interest, especially through its participation in the UN, promotion of BRICS, etc.).

From a comparative point of view, the presence and activity of Russia, and to a certain extent China, has the greatest effect on the region, that is, on countries that are not yet members of NATO (Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina). Serbia is practically the only country in the Western Balkans that is not a member of NATO (NATO members are North Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro), that is, on whose territory there is no foreign military presence (the EU in Bosnia and Herzegovina and NATO in Kosovo), and therefore it is a natural target for competition. Serbia is the only WB country that has not yet joined the EU sanctions against Russia following the aggression in Ukraine.

Russian influence is perhaps even stronger than in Serbia in the part of Bosnia and Herzegovina with a Serbian majority - Republika Srpska. Since the beginning of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has met V. Putin four times. During the meeting in 2023, he stated that " Republika Srpska remains pro-Russian, anti-Western and anti-American ". Russian companies are present in the energy sector of Republika Srpska, especially in the oil industry. The primary example is the Russian company Zarubezhneft , which operates the oil refinery in Brod.

After Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the presence and influence of Russia was somewhat noticeable, with declining trends in the countries of the Western Balkans with an Orthodox tradition, but especially in Montenegro . Russia's presence and influence in the CG in economic and political terms were significantly more visible before 2017 (the CG joined NATO). The largest individual investor in Montenegro was the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaksa, who, however, withdrew from the "Aluminium Plant" project in 2016 and initiated several legal disputes against the Montenegrin authorities. It is estimated that Russian citizens have invested 500 million dollars in real estate in CG. As an effect of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia imposed by Montenegro, Russian investments and presence have been on the decline in recent years.

Montenegro has the highest degree of indebtedness to ZB in relation to credits from China. According to some data, the share of Chinese loans in the GDP of BiH was 3%, in Serbia 8.4%, in North Macedonia 8%. and in Montenegro it was as much as 21% (primarily due to the construction of the Podgorica - Kolašin highway). Montenegro's exposure to Chinese debt has been somewhat reduced since 2021. the intervention of some western banks.

As a traditionally Orthodox country, North Macedonia is under the influence of Russian influences of a propagandistic and cultural nature, but this has rather little effect on its internal and foreign policy. On the other hand, the economic influence of China is noticeable (credits, construction of infrastructure, increase in imports, etc.) or does not exceed the usual limits compared to other countries of the CIS. 

Finally, it can be stated that the influence and presence of Russia is the lowest in the two countries of the WB with the Albanian majority population, which is not cultural and traditionally has never had special ties (with the exception of the Serbian population and the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo). On the other hand, China's presence in Albania can be compared to its activity in other countries of the CIS. This influence in Albania is mainly realized through economic investments and infrastructure projects. China also has the benefit of strengthening cultural and image relations.

 

Source: FEB