“The losses are huge.” The results of the summer offensive of the Russian army and what will happen in the fall?

Donbas Realia correspondents spoke with Ukrainian military personnel and experts about the results of the Russian offensive campaign and the biggest threats in the autumn-winter period.

The so-called summer offensive campaign of the Russian army, which is still ongoing, actually began in mid-April, when the occupiers regrouped the 8th Combined Army in the direction of Torec and began active assault operations there.

 

 

So far, the Russian army has not managed to fully capture the key fortress cities for the offensive on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration - Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar.

The tactic of bypassing these settlements from the flanks is working. But apparently not as quickly as the Russian command would like.

“We have four cities, which, I hope, are currently well fortified and prepared for all-round defense, and in order to fight for them, the enemy needs, first of all: to have well-trained assault infantry. Today we see that the Russians do not have it.

What the commanders of our units, who are directly conducting contact battles, report is that the occupiers have poorly prepared resources, very often they are former prisoners of Russian prisons with 7, 10, 14 days of training. This is absolutely not the qualification needed for urban battles”.

It is necessary to have a sufficient number of mobile vehicles, that is, where there is a chance of success, it is necessary to immediately advance, consolidate and, if possible, break up combat formations, constantly looking for connections between enemy units, looking for gaps in their combat formations, looking for areas not protected by engineering structures.

This requires qualified intelligence, the mobile vehicles that I mentioned - these are combat vehicles. Not just quads, motorcycles, cars, scooters, jeeps and similar jihadmobiles - this is not enough," notes Viktor Kevlyuk, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies.

The Russian army actively tried to break through to Konstantinovka throughout the summer campaign from the south, southeast and northeast.

They captured several areas of territory, precisely in this direction, but their losses this summer are enormous.

"I will say briefly - the summer was hellish, there were many assault actions by the enemy. Their tactics do not change - small raiding parties, motorcycles, ATVs, electric scooters, everything is the same as in other areas. But it was probably a little more difficult for us. I won't say they weren't successful, but these successes don't justify their losses.

This is probably the most important. They have captured several territorial areas, precisely in this direction, but their losses this summer are enormous," summarizes the commander of the artillery unit of the joint assault brigade of the national police "Lyut" with the call sign "Escobar".

 

 

In addition to the advance in the areas of Toretsk, Pokrovskoye and Chasivy Yar, the Russian army has developed an offensive in the Serebryanskaya forest, which allowed Russian FPV drones to strike at the vital logistical artery for the Donbass - the Kharkiv-Kramatorsk highway.

 

"As for the Liman direction - when the enemy has created an advantage of 6 to 1, and in some areas even 20 to 1 - it is extremely difficult to conduct defense and remain on the line of combat contact that you had before he gained this advantage. Yes, indeed, our troops have retreated not only in the Serebryanskaya forest, they are gradually withdrawing across the Chorny Zherebets River.

 

This means that we have lost our bridgehead, which was there, but the other bank of the Northern Donets "It allows us to establish ourselves on a very favorable line for defense, especially on the eve of the winter period. That is, the enemy is advancing through terrain that has been destroyed by fighting. There is practically nothing there to equip some residential buildings, place some battens, some places to store supplies," explains Viktor Kevluk.

 

 

The most resonant breakthrough of the front line occurred in mid-August in the area of the settlements of Kucheriv Yar and Zlatniy Kolodzhaz near Dobropil. Then, according to the Deep State project, the occupiers managed to advance 10 kilometers deep into the Ukrainian defense. So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have managed to stop the advance of the Russian army on this section of the line of contact of combat operations and liberate several villages.

“Everything was bad with the defense there for a long time – on this section of the front. This situation did not arise in a week. The units that were there should have been changed much earlier. But this was not done. The enemy simply pressed where we were weak, and his infantry on motorcycles, buggies and scooters simply bypassed our positions and rushed into the rear of the guys. And we no longer have any positions there”.

When the enemy is both in front and behind, when you do not have the possibility of logistical support for your fortifications – what are you going to do there? Our guys leave there. After that, these fortifications immediately become hostile. They are digging in our direction. They succeeded, flying quite far in such mobile groups.

I won't say that there were many of them in the beginning, but by the time our reserves arrived and started the assault operations - the Russians had already accumulated a certain number of people there in landings, houses. Accordingly, our "fire team" had to fight not with a dozen, but with a hundred. Now our units have the upper hand here.

They are cleaning the area. It is too early to say that the situation has stabilized. Tomorrow the second phase can begin - the enemy will insert reserves and the schedule can change again", says the sergeant of the unmanned systems battalion of the 59th separate assault brigade, Oleksandr Karpjuk (Serg Marko).

 

 

“Firstly, the occupation forces do not have such a political goal. Secondly, what is the point of advancing there if then you stretch your communications, Ukrainian assault vehicles will hit these communications, and those who went deep, as was the case in 22, will be left without fuel, ammunition, food and water and will have to make another “gesture of goodwill” and escape somewhere? – explains Kevluk.

In general, according to the Deep State project, the Russian army occupied more than 1,500 square kilometers of Ukraine in three summer months. For comparison, this is approximately the area of two cities like Kiev.

 

Most of the territorial gains – about 60 percent – fall on the Dobropil'-Toreck-Pokrovsk section of the front. A quarter – on the conditionally Avdiyevo direction south of Pokrovsk.

“On the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian army has really concentrated a group of somewhere between 100,000 and 110,000 people. Recently, marine brigades from the Sumy region arrived there. Four out of five enemy available. The creation of such a grouping suggests that the invaders do not have enough forces and means to achieve something reasonable within the time frame set by the military leadership for the grouping of troops “Center”.

Of course, such details as the creation of strike groups mean preparation for an offensive operation, so we should think that the enemy has suffered such losses that he is forced to throw all available resources, sacrificing advancement in all other directions,” Kevlyuk believes.

 

 

Russian specialized units of unmanned systems, which have increased their combat capabilities several times over the summer, and most importantly, “are working ahead of schedule,” says Alexander Karpyuk. For example, they are systematically deploying electronic warfare assets, taking into account the frequencies on which Ukrainian drones operate.

“They have very good electronic warfare (ERW) – ed.). They have installed a large number of tactical radars. And even large ones, for example, SOPKA-2. These radars see targets even at an altitude of 100 meters. And, for example, somewhere they break through your defense line, and these motorcyclists start flying, or even the infantry just bypasses our positions on foot and goes to the rear.

They need to be destroyed. With what? Mavic and FPV already have electronic warfare installed, which works on the frequencies of these drones. That is, our kamikaze drones are getting lost in large numbers. “Baba Yaga?” They have radars that detect our “bombers” even during takeoff.”

Autumn-winter will bring new challenges to the Ukrainian army. When the leaves fall from the trees, it will be much more difficult to hide from drones. And the weather will also make its own adjustments to the course of hostilities.

“We need more Mavics, more bombers, more small reconnaissance tactical drones, more small-class wings, like the Valkyrie or the mini Shark, all so that we can fly below the clouds if necessary at an altitude of 400-500 meters. Because there will be rain, there will be low clouds, reconnaissance drones will work less, which will affect operational awareness.

If we have these means and if we use them, it will be easier for us. If we are late with this again, everything will be much worse. And this can cause quite unexpected results on the front,” says Alexander Karpyuk.  

 

"I think that by the end of this year - even assuming that the enemy will reach suitable lines for further attack - nothing supernatural will happen. The enemy really likes, or rather the enemy headquarters really likes to cover objects from two sides.

We see that something is approaching from the north, something is approaching from the south, but the agglomeration is four cities and it is desirable to cover something between the settlements as well. The enemy has nothing to show in this regard even on the distant approaches.

They are stuck near Siversk, near Toretsk, near Chasovi Yar, and until these tactical tasks are solved, the continuation of any assault offensive actions against the "belt of fortresses" is hardly possible. Of the directions that are dangerous for us, I would single out Limansky, Pokrovsky, Novopavlovsky and Orikhovsky. The last two are assignments with an asterisk, after the main homework is completed," Viktor Kevlyuk concludes.

As for the Zaporizhia region, in Kevlyuk's opinion, the part of the front along the Plavni-Stepnohirsk line looks quite dangerous, where the enemy can reach a line from which he can deliver tube artillery and MLRS to the outskirts of Zaporizhia itself.

At the moment, the Russian army has concentrated two fresh, battle-worn divisions in this direction. And this can significantly affect the course of hostilities in the region.