Russia’s Year of Truth: The Soldier Shortage

The death and disablement of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, acute strains in the defense budget and a looming shortage of military hardware make 2025 the year of truth for Moscow’s armed forces.

With the full-scale war against Ukraine nearly three years-old, Russia’s armed forces have lost as many as 700,000 troops killed, injured or missing in action by October last year. Estimates by Russian and BBC researchers suggest at least 400,000 are dead or too seriously wounded to return to duty.

Recruitment has barely covered these losses, forcing Russia to use draftees to counter Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024, import troops from North Korea, and extend the use of convicts and people under criminal investigation.

By resorting to such desperate measures, Moscow was able to maintain combat pressure and slowly extend its occupation of Ukrainian territory, though its slow progress would not be considered a success when judged against Russian military theory.

In 2025, recruitment will continue to be a significant challenge for the Kremlin, further degrading its ability to field a modern army.

In December 2023, President Vladimir Putin claimed 490,000 contracted soldiers had been recruited to the armed forces during the previous 12 months. A year later, he admitted the actual number for 2023 was much lower, saying in a speech that “more than 300,000”had signed up.

This number correlates with the annual budgetary report, which detailed approximately