Russian media The Insider: Kremlin is undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina, threat to blow up Western Balkans

Russia, backed by China, is stepping up pressure on the West in the Balkans as the region faces its worst crisis since the 1990s. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbs are undermining government agencies, threatening to build their own military and declare independence, while Moscow refuses to recognize a new administrator…

Russia, backed by China, is stepping up pressure on the West in the Balkans as the region faces its worst crisis since the 1990s. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbs are undermining government agencies, threatening to build their own military and declare independence, while Moscow refuses to recognize a new international administrator, fueling the crisis.

All this threatens the collapse of the country and the outbreak of a new "hot" phase of the conflict.

At the same time, Russia is organizing provocations in Kosovo, and in Montenegro, the pro-Kremlin "Demfront", which has already been noticed during the coup attempt, is intensifying the government crisis, writes the Russian media The Insider.

In recent days, the situation in the Balkans has escalated to the point where the Kremlin's behavior has played a key role.

Instead of playing the role of a peacekeeper in a region made up entirely of poorly frozen conflicts, Moscow is actively helping to reopen old wounds.

The issue was particularly acute in a country where, it seemed, a peaceful solution until recently was quite successful - Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Bosnia and Herzegovina - the fuse of a gunpowder barrel

Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina is based on agreements reached after the 1990s war, including a unified army, intelligence services and judicial system. However, Serbian leader Milorad Dodik recently threatened to pull out of the deal, which has led to an unprecedented rise in tensions. In this regard, a group of US congressmen called on President Joe Biden to impose sanctions on those who destabilize the region, and on November 5, a US State Department spokesman, Gabriel Escobar, arrived in the Balkans in hopes of resolving the crisis.

Dodik's recent initiatives could lead to the complete destruction of state structures: the joint army, established in 2006, is one of the few links linking the country's three ethnic communities - Bosnian Muslims, Serbs and Croats.

Some experts and politicians are saying these days that Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the verge of collapse and that this will have a domino effect in the region.

At the same time, some experts link rising tensions to Serbia's policies and Russian influence.

The United States played a key role in ending the Bosnian civil war, which claimed nearly 100,000 lives.

It was Washington that initiated the signing of the Dayton Accords, which define the structure of post-war Bosnia: the country is made up of two separate entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska.

The Dayton process has been the subject of controversy for 26 years between the political elites of the country's three main communities, who have differing ideas about the role of government agencies, reforms and integration processes. Attempts to create a more workable model have yielded no results, and contradictions in the camp of peace guarantors, including Russia, the United States, and the European Union, affect the effectiveness of international efforts.

After lengthy discussions, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution in early November extending the mandate of the European peacekeeping contingent EUFOR in Bosnia, but Russia and China did not allow the international administrator in Bosnia, High Representative Christian Schmidt, to speak in New York. York.

Moreover, Moscow, as reported by the agency DPA, threatened to block the resolution on the extension of EUFOR's mandate if the document mentions the High Representative.

Schmidt would inform the world community of the "real threat" of Bosnia's fall and slide into war.

According to him, if Dodik withdraws from the agreement on a joint army, a larger international contingent should return to Bosnia.

There are now only 600 EUFOR troops here, and after the war more than 60,000 soldiers were sent here under NATO command.

The international administrator, whose position is enshrined in the Dayton Accords, has so far personally briefed the UN Security Council on the situation in Bosnia twice a year. However, now there will be problems with this. Disputes over the international presence escalated in late May, when Moscow for the first time in 26 years after the war sensationally did not support the appointment of a New High Representative.

In support of the candidacy of the former Minister of Agriculture of the Federal Republic of Germany, Christian Schmidt, all the countries included in the Steering Committee of the Council for the Implementation of the Peace Agreement, with the exception of Russia, recall, except Russia, Canada, France, Germany , Italy, Japan, Great Britain, the United States, as well as the country holding the Presidency of the European Union, the European Commission and the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which is represented by Turkey.

Later, after receiving the support of Beijing, which was not involved in the Bosnian settlement, Russian diplomacy submitted a resolution to the UN Security Council in which the agreement on Schmidt's candidacy was linked to the early termination of senior representatives in 2022. At the same time, Russia and China, which joined it, have already sought to repeal the special powers that allow the international administrator to make binding decisions and dismiss officials and judges without the right to appeal.

No one backed the Russian-Chinese resolution in July.

After Schmidt took office on August 1, Moscow and Beijing declared his illegitimacy and refused to cooperate with him.

This attitude of the two nuclear powers gave Dodik confidence in his separatist rhetoric.

He threatens to try Schmidt as a fraud, and despite the public support the US and EU have given to the new international administration, Dodik claims that "the great powers have agreed to destroy the Office of the High Representative."

Dodik complements his attacks on the international administration, with which, in accordance with the Dayton Agreement, he is obliged to cooperate, with insults and provocative statements against political opponents.

So recently in the building of the presidium in Sarajevo organized strong rallies with accordion and alcohol, singing nationalist songs.

Dodik and genocide

While the United States and the European Union call on Bosnian Serbs to end the boycott of state authorities and return to work, Moscow and Belgrade have refrained from making such statements and generally criticizing Dodik. For both capitals, it is the main ally in the Balkans. At the same time, Belgrade is one of the three parties to the Dayton Accords and Moscow is one of its guarantors, and this document prohibits any action or threat that calls into question the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

For Dodik's political opponents in the Serbian camp, separatist promises are a path to the unknown that threatens peace and stability.

Politicians in Sarajevo call his actions an unconstitutional riot.

On October 18th, the Bosnia and Herzegovina Prosecutor's Office announced the launch of an investigation against Dodik, but it is not known why.

The formal reason for Dodik's anger and the boycott of state bodies was the approval, at the suggestion of Schmidt's predecessor as high representative Valentin Inzko, of amendments to the Criminal Code, implying up to five years in prison for denial of genocide and other wars.

crimes.

This refers, first of all, to the 1995 massacres of Muslims in Srebrenica, which the International Court of Justice in 2007 recognized as genocide.

Dodik himself, who came to power in the late 1990s thanks to the support of Western countries, in the past called the fact that genocide would have been committed in Srebrenica, but gradually stepped down from that position, demanding a new investigation.

In Republika Srpska, it is not customary to talk about crimes committed by Serbs themselves, as this is considered unpatriotic.

In recent years, Dodik has made the denial of Srebrenica and the marginalization of enemy victims an important part of his political rhetoric.

This generates anger and condemnation from Bosnian Muslims and Croats, as well as from the US and the EU.

Moscow is helping Dodik as much as it can: in 2015, Russia vetoed a resolution condemning genocide at the UN Security Council, although Russian authorities more than once used the tragedy in their statements, talking about conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine. For example, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in August 2008 that "our peacekeepers will not allow a repeat in South Ossetia of what happened in Srebrenica, when Dutch peacekeepers were unable to prevent genocide." Later, Moscow, like Dodik, rejected the word.

Experts assess the consequences of the current crisis differently. Some people think that Dodik will not dare to go to the end and will not declare independence and his noisy rhetoric only aims to divert people's attention from the difficult economic situation and large-scale corruption. Others believe that Dodik, along with the leader of the Croatian nationalists, Dragan Covic, is closer than ever to the destruction of the Bosnian state, and that a conflict is quite possible here, though not on such a large scale.

There is also an opinion that Dodik will soon face serious sanctions and leave the political scene.

Some do not rule out that, like the family of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, he will have to seek political asylum in Russia.

However, so far there is no talk of asylum.

Moscow, at least at the level of propaganda, is actively assisting Dodik, destroying the authority of the international administrator and justifying his efforts to destroy the united army.

Provocations in Kosovo

Moscow is trying to remain very active in another crisis area - Kosovo.

All the years that have passed since Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008, Russia has remained at the forefront of Pristina's opponents, discrediting Kosovo's political elite and playing alongside the rhetoric of power emanating from Belgrade.

In late October, two Russian diplomats were deported from Kosovo "for activities that undermine national security and constitutional order."

These are employees of the Pristina office of the Russian Embassy in Serbia, where about 10 diplomats work.

In Smolenskaya Square, the decision of the Kosovo authorities was called a "serious provocation".

According to Kosovar media reports, earlier this year, one of those denied hospitality in Pristina, Aleksey Krivosheev, was deported from Albania.

Prior to that, he worked at the Russian Embassy in Skopje, where he allegedly interacted with opponents of pro-Western Prime Minister Zoran Zaev.

Russia has often been called a hostile country in Kosovo because of its support for Serbia's policy and the active campaign against Kosovo that Moscow is conducting on various international platforms.

Some experts do not rule out that Belgrade and Moscow will try to occupy the northern regions of Kosovo under the pretext of protecting local Serbs.

However, this scenario remains hypothetical.

Belgrade has been handcuffed by agreements with NATO that prevent it from sending troops to Kosovo. Moscow has no military leverage in the region and its main instruments in this regard are influence through churches, demonstration of its power and anti-Albanian propaganda through diplomatic channels and controlled media.

One of the most recent examples of incitement to hatred and the spread of misinformation at the diplomatic level relates to the events of late September - early October, when a license plate dispute escalated between Belgrade and Pristina. The Russian ambassador to Serbia, Alexander Botan-Kharchenko, later stated publicly that the whole story was "intended for ethnic cleansing", although there was no evidence to support it. Also, Botan-Kharchenko, together with the Minister of Defense of Serbia, Nebojsa Stefanovic, had visited the units of the Serbian army on standby on the border with Kosovo. While many condemned the dramatic muscle game, the presence of a nuclear power near Kosovo in the midst of the crisis should have raised fears in the region. Thus Moscow,as left without the role of mediator after 2008, gets some points.

In Kosovo, Moscow has no leeway given the hostile environment and strong presence of the US and EU, but its impact is evident globally. The main message from Russia is its willingness to use its veto power over issues related to Kosovo's future.

The doors of international organizations will remain closed to him for a very long time.

And if Belgrade has more than once hinted at its willingness to lift the blockade on Kosovo's independence in order to accelerate European integration, Moscow seems unlikely to do so.

Its strategic goals in Kosovo, as in Bosnia, are linked to opposition to NATO enlargement.

Rhetorical assistance to Belgrade in defending its territorial integrity provides Moscow with a foothold in Serb-populated territories to advance its influence in this part of the Balkans.

Montenegrin crisis - pro-Kremlin party wants revenge

In recent years, Russia has been actively involved in political and religious confrontations in Montenegro amid prolonged government crises and disputes over the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in that country.

Moscow has more than once openly stated its preferences, sharply criticizing the policies of President Milo Djukanovic and supporting the Nationalist Democratic Front, which essentially does not recognize Montenegrin citizenship.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian Orthodox Church as well as the state and conservative media have been campaigning for many years to discredit the Djukanovic regime.

It is attended by politicians and "analysts" in the Balkans, linked to the Russian authorities and their propaganda structures.

In recent days, the political crisis in Montenegro has entered an acute phase due to the new offensive of "Demfront".

Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic was on the verge of resigning after Demfront, which had previously backed the government of experts, announced the need to elect a new one.

The DF leaders announced on November 1 that from now on they will consider as illegitimate all the Government's proposals for the Parliament, including the Draft Budget, which according to them should be proposed by the new cabinet.

Demfront, which has considerable weight in the coalition that won the 2020 election, would like to join the government.

However, this option raises concerns in Brussels, where they believe it will slow down reforms related to European integration.

Some experts fear that the political situation could spiral out of control and that the levers of power would fall into the hands of pro-Russian and anti-Western forces.

Recall that "Demfront" in 2016 was at the center of a scandal over allegations of attempting to stage a coup, where the most active role was played by the GRU of the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to the prosecution, two Russians, Eduard Shirokov (Shishmakov) and Vladimir Popov (Moiseev), while in Serbia in 2016, organized a group of Serb militants who were allegedly provoking bloodshed in Podgorica during a rally shortly after the vote. It had to seize parliament and other institutions, secure Demfront's rise to power, and prevent Montenegro from joining NATO. The coup failed, the conspirators were arrested, and Montenegro eventually successfully joined NATO.

Russia's relations with Montenegro finally deteriorated after the annexation of Podgorica with Western sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea.

In 2015, the political dialogue was actually interrupted.

On the eve of the country's membership in NATO, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the Montenegrin political elite of treason.

Djukanovic has repeatedly stated that Russia is openly interfering in his country's affairs, trying to destabilize it and divert it from the European path.

In addition, he made Moscow responsible for the riots on the day of the coronation of the Metropolitan of Montenegro and Primorsky Ioanniky in Cetinje on 5 September.

On the other hand, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian Orthodox Church accused Djukanovic of "creating an artificial conflict."

Metropolitan Hilarion of Volokolamsk called Djukanovic "Montenegro's shame".

However, it is not difficult to see through controlled media and diplomatic statements, Moscow is of religious divisions, making the political climate even more toxic.

Like local nationalists, Russian propaganda prioritizes ethnicity and religion, linking them to foreign policy issues.

/ Telegraphy /