Russian attacks on nuclear power plants: what are the dangers and how to counter them?

 

The winter of the fourth year of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine could be a test of the sustainability of Ukraine's energy system, which has already suffered serious damage from previous Russian missile strikes. Russian troops have intensified attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, in particular by massive shelling of thermal power plants and nuclear power plant substations (NPPs).

During a massive attack on the night of November 8, Russia shelled substations that supply electricity to the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants. This was stated by Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga. According to him, these were not random, but well-planned attacks. After the night attack, the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants were forced to reduce electricity production, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement distributed via the social network X.

 

Russia wants to remove nuclear power plants - the basis of Ukraine's energy sector - from the energy system

 

The director of energy and infrastructure programs at the Razumkov Center, Volodymyr Omelchenko, calls such attacks a "hybrid terrorist attack on nuclear power plants."

"The aim of these attacks is not only blackouts in the regions, but the destruction of nuclear energy, which is the basis of the Ukrainian energy system. Because as long as we have nine nuclear units in operation, they cannot do anything to our energy system - it continues to work. That is why they took the last step, terrorist - hybrid terrorist attacks on nuclear units," Omelchenko commented to DW.

The essence of the latest Russian attacks on substations of nuclear power plants in the country, Omelchenko explains further, is not so much in disconnecting the power plant from the supply of electricity to consumers, but in creating a critical situation for the reactors themselves. When the substation is shelled, the transmission of electricity from the nuclear power plant to the grid becomes impossible, and the nuclear block must be urgently transferred to the off-project mode of operation in emergency situations. This poses a danger to the block itself, because it is impossible to stop it quickly. Omelchenko notes that the security protocols do not contain procedures in the event of an attack on the infrastructure of the functioning of nuclear blocks, because no one in the world has foreseen this.

Russia has already resorted to such tactics to remove the substation from the Ukrainian power system back in November 2022, which then caused a short-term blackout in Ukraine. Russia's goals have not changed compared to the previous three years - they want to cause a power outage in Ukraine again, that is, an uncontrolled breakdown of the power system into separate energy islands.

 

However, this time the Russian army has somewhat changed the tactics of the attack. Experts note that the latest Russian attacks on open switching facilities of nuclear power plants are characterized by a high concentration of weapons of destruction at one facility, mostly on the left side of Ukraine.

"The Russians use the following tactics: first - "Shahedi", and then - five to seven ballistic missiles at one target. The raised concrete defense, which can withstand "Kalibre", does not protect against the Russian "Shahed" and "Iskander", Olga Košarna, a nuclear safety expert and former member of the board of the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation, told DW.

 

The threat of long-term power outages in Ukraine

 

According to her, if in 2022 the Ukrainian power system recovered from the blackout quite quickly, now it could be problematic, because a significant part of the generation, substations and power lines were destroyed.

"Unlike in 2022, when the power system was assembled in 14 hours thanks to a larger volume of generation and an extensive network, now the situation is fundamentally different. Almost all the generation on the left bank of the country has been destroyed, including the Zmiiv TPP, the Kharkiv-5 TPP, the Chernihiv TPP. The Vugledar TPP is located in the occupied territory. Hydroelectric and thermal power plants across the country have been damaged, especially Dobrotvir, Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn," said Košarna.

Former Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety, member of the Supervisory Board of the WE BUILD UKRAIN think tank, Viktoria Vojtsichka, notes that Russia knows where to strike in order to inflict maximum and long-term damage on Ukraine.

“The strikes on the Trypillya thermal power plant are aimed at depriving Kyiv and the region of the energy needed to cover peak consumption in the morning and evening; the Kyiv substation, without which it is impossible to ensure the supply of electricity from the Rivne nuclear power plant, which is the main source of electricity for the city, is proof of this,” Vojtsichka noted in her post on the social network Facebook. According to her, the winter of 2025-26 will be much more difficult for Kyiv in terms of the availability of electricity and heating, but not only in comparison with the winter of 2022-23.

DiXi Group think tank president Olena Pavlenko proposes creating an “energy Ramstein” with international partners to provide Ukraine with urgent assistance in high-level negotiations on how to get through the winter in the face of Russian shelling, especially of nuclear power facilities.

 

What to do to avoid winter power outages

 

Ukraine has once again called on other countries to influence Russia.

"We call on all states that value nuclear safety, especially China and India, to demand that Russia stop reckless attacks on nuclear energy, which create the risk of a catastrophic incident.

Global pressure is needed to force Moscow to stop its nuclear blackmail," said Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga.

The Ukrainian side also appealed to the IAEA to convene an urgent meeting of the organization's board of directors to address the "unacceptable risks" of Russian shelling of Ukrainian nuclear power plant infrastructure.

 

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reacted to the Russian shelling of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, but did not mention what the Russian actions had led to.

"Electrical substations are essential to our efforts to ensure nuclear safety in times of war. Their further destruction is a serious cause for concern in this regard. I continue to call for maximum military restraint to preserve nuclear safety and avoid accidents with serious radiological consequences," the IAEA quoted the organization's Director General, Rafael Grossi, as saying in a statement.

The experts are no longer relying on the IAEA's capabilities and stress that Ukrainian diplomats should convey information to other countries that accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants due to Russian shelling could have serious consequences for nuclear safety, especially in Europe, and to increase the protection of nuclear power plants among partners.

"We must preserve nuclear energy at all costs, strengthen air defense protection over key substations for supplying power to nuclear units, and ask partners to provide air defense systems, such as Patriot, to protect substations of nuclear units. This is necessary not only for Ukraine, but also for all of Europe, because if a nuclear accident occurs, it will affect all of Europe," Volodymyr Omelchenko believes.