Kremlin’s weakness lies inside: Ukraine’s long game in the war with Russia

Ukraine’s Victory Plan, outlined by President Zelenskyy, aims to end the war by 2025, combining military efforts with diplomatic, economic, and informational strategies. Zelenskyy’s plan emphasizes the importance of international support in enforcing global sanctions on Russia, restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and establishing long-term security guarantees. However, the plan also acknowledges that military success alone will not be enough. Ukraine must win the broader struggle by undermining the Kremlin’s ideological control and supporting forces inside Russia that oppose its authoritarianism.

Russia started a war that is existential for both countries. For the Kremlin, controlling Ukraine is about much more than projecting power—it’s essential to its survival. In Russian historiography Ukraine’s very existence is tied to the myth of Russian statehood, dating back to Kyivan Rus. If Ukraine decisively embraces its European future, it would strike at the heart of Russia’s ideology, shaking the foundations of the Kremlin’s narrative. Losing this war would mean the end of Putin’s Russia as we know it. For Ukraine, this isn’t just about reclaiming lost territories—it’s about defending its identity and survival as a nation.

While the West continues to arm and fund Ukraine, Russia’s vast resources make this war hard to win in traditional military terms. Even though Ukraine has achieved incredible military successes and earned global admiration for its resilience, Russia is adapting. It has retooled its economy, ramped up militarization, and is digging in for a long war of attrition. The Russian budget for 2024-2026 plans to triple defense spending, with over $100 billion set aside annually for the war effort.

A giant with feet of clay

To many in the West, Russia appears to be a monolith, rooted in centuries of autocratic rule, its ideological base rock-solid. But history tells a different story. Russia’s ideological structures, though they may seem strong, have cracks that can bring them crashing down—and fast. Understanding these weak points gives Ukraine a strategic edge in its long-term fight against Russian aggression. By using soft power tactics, Ukraine can trigger the ideological shifts inside Russia that could lead to its collapse, as it has in the past.

Three pivotal moments in Russian history show how fragile the country’s ideological foundations really are, proving that Russia’s power can crumble when its people turn against the regime.

The first of these moments is the collapse of the Russian Empire during the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. For centuries, the Russian Empire had been one of Europe’s most formidable powers, wielding influence across the continent. But within a matter of days, the empire crumbled, unable to withstand the growing ideological discontent that had been simmering beneath the surface for years. The Russian philosopher Vasily Rozanov famously captured the speed of the empire’s collapse, saying, “Russia collapsed in two days, maximum three days” (Россия слиняла в два дня, максимум в три дня). The fall of the Tsarist regime was not the result of military defeat or foreign invasion but of internal ideological decay. The people lost faith in the imperial system, and when the Bolsheviks capitalized on this discontent, the empire fell apart almost overnight.

This historical example is a powerful reminder of how quickly seemingly strong regimes can unravel. Russia’s might on the world stage has often masked its deep internal fragility. An ideological structure, no matter how ingrained, can collapse swiftly when the people lose faith in it.

The second critical moment is the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The USSR, a global superpower and one of the two poles in the Cold War, dissolved with surprising speed. Despite its vast resources and international influence, the Soviet Union collapsed not through military defeat but because of internal ideological failure. Soviet citizens, disillusioned by decades of lies, oppression, and economic hardship, yearned for the freedoms and opportunities of the West. Events like the 1991 Moscow concert featuring Metallica at Tushino airfield, which drew hundreds of thousands of people, highlighted this hunger for something the Soviet regime could never provide: true freedom. The rapid collapse of the Soviet Union shows that Russia’s ideological foundations are vulnerable to shifts in public sentiment.

The third and most recent example of Russia’s fragility is the 2023 coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group. While the coup ultimately failed, it exposed deep cracks within Putin’s regime. Prigozhin’s “March of justice” toward Moscow, largely unopposed by Russian military forces and even welcomed by some citizens, revealed the fragile nature of Putin’s hold on power. People’s willingness to greet the Wagner soldiers suggested underlying dissatisfaction with the government and its handling of the war in Ukraine. This event demonstrated that, much like the Tsarist and Soviet regimes before it, Putin’s government is vulnerable to collapse from within, despite its outward appearance of strength.

These historical examples show why Ukraine must keep up its soft power strategy—exposing the cracks in Putin’s regime by promoting alternative narratives that challenge his authoritarian rule. While Russia may appear resilient, it is actually deeply vulnerable. Ukraine’s long-term plan should focus on soft power, shaping narratives, supporting opposition groups, and exposing the truth behind Putin’s propaganda. History shows that when Russians lose faith in their system, change can happen fast.

Building a new Russian narrative

A key part of this information war is creating a Russian counter-narrative that challenges the Kremlin’s version of events. Right now, Putin’s regime thrives on the idea that Russia is under attack by the West and that Ukraine is just a puppet state in this larger conflict. By crafting a new narrative that resonates with Russian identity, Ukraine can begin to break this myth.

The message needs to be simple and clear: the war against Ukraine is unjust and is driven by Putin and his cronies’ greed. Russian soldiers are dying not for their homeland but for the ambitions of corrupt leaders. The focus should be on the core grievances of the Russian people—poverty, corruption, and the senseless loss of life. By amplifying these messages and offering Russians a different vision for their future, Ukraine can hasten the collapse of Putin’s regime.

True Russian patriotism lies in creating a fair, just Russia—one that doesn’t seek to conquer its neighbors but focuses on improving the lives of its own citizens. If regions like Chechnya or Dagestan want independence, they should be allowed to go, while the core of Russia rebuilds into a country that cares about its people, not military conquests.

To achieve this, Ukraine must work closely with Russian exile groups and intellectuals, as well as those still in Russia fighting for change. While many of these groups face immense hardship, they are crucial in building a future Russia that can live in peace with its neighbors.

Ukraine’s role here is to guide and support these groups, not to patronize them. Ukraine can offer practical help—providing infrastructure, resources, and platforms to those working toward a democratic, non-imperial Russia. This includes creating films, documentaries, and literature that expose Russia’s imperial history and offer alternative visions for its future.

At the same time, Ukraine should help unite the often-divided Russian opposition, bringing together different factions around the common goal of building a democratic Russia. Ukraine’s journey toward democracy can serve as a powerful example, but it must assist, not dominate, this process. In some cases, Ukraine may need to take a more active role, especially in cultural production and international outreach.

Conclusion: A long but necessary fight

The unfortunate reality is that even if the war ends tomorrow, Ukraine will remain next to a hostile and imperialistic neighbor. Russia’s imperial ambitions, embedded deep in its culture and political rhetoric, will not simply fade away, even if the guns fall silent.

To truly secure long-term peace, Ukraine must recognize that in the long run its most effective weapon may not be on the battlefield, but in the realm of information and culture. Supporting Russian opposition movements, arming those ready to fight, and winning the informational war are the keys to ensuring that Russia’s war machine grinds to a halt. Informational warfare should come not in the form of propaganda, but as a strategic effort to help shift the cultural and historical narrative inside Russia itself. The task of changing Russia’s cultural and political mindset is a daunting one, but it is essential not only for Ukraine, but, indeed, for Europe. This cultural and informational front must be treated with the same seriousness as the military campaign, as it is the only path to a lasting solution. Victory will come not just when Ukraine reclaims its land, but when Russia is forced to confront the failures of its regime from within. And that victory, while long and arduous, is within our reach.