How Russia is seeking to influence Germany’s federal elections

As Germans vote to elect a new parliament, the Kremlin’s ability to meddle with the vote looms large. Yet Vladimir Putin’s long game may prove far more potent than any short-term interference.

In mid-December, a tweet appeared on X featuring the latest polling numbers for Germany’s upcoming parliamentary election: the Christian Democrats, or CDU/CSU, polled at 31%, Alternative for Germany, or AfD, at 20% and the Social Democrats, or SPD, at 17%. The post quickly gained traction, with users sharing and commenting on it widely. Among the commentators was someone using the alias «Tyler Durden,» who wrote in German that he would never vote for the CDU, «if only because no one would believe Merz – since the CDU is a party of lies.» Friedrich Mertz is head of the CDU.

At first glance, there was nothing particularly unusual about the exchange. Social networks are, after all, rife with insults, provocations and heated rhetoric. But things took an interesting turn when another user responded to Tyler Durden by asking what the weather was like in St. Petersburg. To this, Durden replied in Russian that the temperature in St. Petersburg was -4 degrees Celsius, the wind blowing at two to three meters per second, and that the sky was cloudy but dry.

With that Russian-language response, Durden may have confirmed what many suspected: He is likely a Russian bot. It appears that a simple tactic may have tricked the artificial intelligence into revealing its true nature.

A bot on social media is a program that automatically publishes comments and responses. Many are programmed to disseminate misleading content, opinions or fake news – sometimes with such convincing realism that distinguishing them from genuine users becomes a challenge.

For years, the Putin regime has relied on bots as one of many tools to manipulate public opinion in Germany, spreading false or confusing narratives across online platforms. With just weeks to go before the general election, concerns are mounting that Russia may once again be stepping up its efforts to influence the country’s political landscape.

How effective is it?

The extent of Russian influence on elections remains unclear.

Historically, short-term disinformation campaigns launched by the Kremlin have had, at best, limited success in influencing election outcomes. Studies of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, for instance, concluded that attempts to manipulate platforms like Twitter (as it was then called) had only a marginal impact. That was the year Donald Trump was first elected president.

Similarly, there has been no definitive evidence showing that Russian interference significantly influenced the outcome of Germany’s 2021 federal election. However, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, or BND, suggested during an event in Berlin last November that Russian efforts did indeed have «an impact on the election results.» He stopped short of specifying the extent of that influence.

In any case, the Kremlin’s long-term operations to manipulate public opinion are likely to be far more effective than its short-term campaigns. Social media platforms have emerged as one of Moscow’s primary avenues of attack.

A growing number of Germans now rely on these platforms for their news. According to the Reuters Digital News Report 2024, 21% use YouTube, 16% turn to Facebook, 15% to WhatsApp and 11% to Instagram for updates on current events. TikTok and X lag behind, with only 5% of users relying on them for news.

Unlike traditional media such as newspapers and television – where trained journalists determine what makes the cut – social media is driven by algorithms. These algorithms prioritize content that grabs users’ attention, regardless of its accuracy, allowing misleading or false information to spread rapidly.

The Kremlin has capitalized on this dynamic. Since at least 2014, following the annexation of Crimea, Germany has become a central target of Vladimir Putin’s information war in Europe. Moscow has bombarded the country with fake news and propaganda, much of it disseminated online.

Does disinformation threaten democracy?

There is little scientific evidence to suggest that disinformation poses a direct threat to democracy – at least, that’s the conclusion of a recent report by the International Observatory on Information and Democracy. The organization, which focuses on safeguarding democratic principles in the digital age, argues that the real problem lies elsewhere. According to one of its authors, the constant focus on disinformation creates a sense of uncertainty, particularly about established media outlets.

Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, a former vice president of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, sees it differently. In his book «Putin’s Attack on Germany,» (in German only) coauthored with Leon Erlenhorst, he argues that Russia’s disinformation campaigns are deliberately and systematically designed to weaken German democracy, divide society and erode support for Ukraine.

Freytag von Loringhoven describes the Kremlin’s efforts as subtle yet massive in scale. He likens Russia’s information warfare to radioactive exposure: «We cannot perceive it, but it gradually harms our system.» He warns that society is being undermined «without us realizing it immediately.»

Russia’s propaganda strategy, he explains, targets issues that are already contentious in Germany. A few years ago, the focus was on the coronavirus pandemic; today, it centers on the energy transition, climate change and the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin seizes on any topic that could destabilize Germany and sow confusion within its society.

Zelenskyy allegedly buys Goebbels' villa

The methods employed by Russia’s disinformation apparatus are as diverse as the social media platforms they target. On X, thousands of artificial tweets flood the comment sections of real users. Videos with manipulative content are published on YouTube or TikTok and fake photos are uploaded to Instagram.

This manipulative content is intended to amplify misleading narratives. The aim is to demonize Ukraine and spread falsehoods about Ukrainian refugees. Russian propaganda accuses the German government of neglecting its own citizens in favor of supporting Ukrainians and blames Berlin for escalating the conflict through military aid.

In 2023, Kremlin-linked propagandists allegedly circulated a YouTube video claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had purchased the «Haus am Bogensee» near Berlin for €8 million euros. The villa, once owned by Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels, became the centerpiece of a fabricated narrative. Though entirely false, the claim appeared designed to link Zelenskyy to Nazis, while reinforcing familiar accusations of corruption often leveled against him.

Moscow has a plan

Russia’s efforts to weaken Germany extend beyond social media. In April 2023, The Washington Post newspaper reported on a broader strategy initiated by Sergei Kiriyenko, Putin’s chief propagandist. According to the report, Kiriyenko instructed his team in June 2022 to focus on undermining Germany’s support for Ukraine. Kiriyenko’s specific goal was to increase the proportion of Germans favoring closer ties with Russia by 10% within three months.

By April 2024, the German news magazine Der Spiegel revealed further details of this effort, reporting on a Kremlin-drafted «manifesto» that outlined a propaganda strategy for enabling a political takeover by the far-right AfD party. Allegedly written in Russian, the document reportedly included calls to lift sanctions on Russia, resume gas imports, halt arms deliveries to Ukraine and remove foreign military bases from German soil.

The Washington Post also referenced the «manifesto,» claiming its objective was to align two German political factions with pro-Russian leanings: the AfD and the group surrounding Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW. However, the article stopped short of clarifying whether Kremlin operatives had directly communicated with either group about implementing the strategy. AfD leader Tino Chrupalla dismissed the allegations as a «fantasy tale,» rejecting Der Spiegel’s report as baseless.

Sergei Lavrov applauds Germany’s AfD and Wagenknecht's party

At his traditional start-of-year news conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently commended Germany’s far-right AfD party and Sahra Wagenknecht for their stance on German national interests. Lavrov noted there was «a lot of good sense» in Wagenknecht’s remarks. President Vladimir Putin has also expressed support for the AfD in the past, stating that Moscow is willing to collaborate with any political forces advocating for «normal relations» with Russia.

Disinformation campaigns and the strategic backing of radical fringe parties are two ways the Kremlin seeks to influence German politics and society to advance its agenda. A possible third avenue has now been explored in a study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. Titled «Networks of Power,» the report, written by three academics from the Center for the Study of Democracy, examines Russia's «shadow influence» in Germany.

The authors describe this influence as a «tightly knit network of actors ranging from business leaders to cultural organizations.» Among those cited are the German-Russian Forum and the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, which have historically focused on fostering economic ties and dialogue between Germany and Russia.

Allegations against German-Russian organizations

The study suggests these organizations could still serve as vehicles for extending Russian influence. It points to their role as «high-profile formal platforms» capable of embedding Russian interests into German politics and society Both groups, however, publicly distanced themselves from Moscow's actions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In response to inquiries from the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations stated that it had severed all official ties with Russia immediately after the invasion. The German-Russian Forum emphasized that its activities are now exclusively focused on civil society projects, aiming to «preserve interpersonal connections even in challenging times and ensure their long-term sustainability.»

With federal elections in Germany less than five weeks away, concerns over Russian interference are palpable. A recent survey indicates that 56% of Germans fear the spread of disinformation during the election campaign, while 48% worry about the possibility of foreign manipulation.