13.02.2026.

A turning point in the war: why, despite a terrible winter under shelling, it seems as if the critical line has already been crossed

One of the coldest winters in the conditions of constant Russian shelling is incredibly long and cold, it seems that this will be a turning point in this war. It is increasingly evident that too many things have begun to work against Russia, although, of course, there are still many trials ahead of the Ukrainians...
One of the coldest winters in the conditions of constant Russian shelling is incredibly long and cold. But, nevertheless, there is a feeling that this winter will be a turning point in this war.
A team of young and intelligent people who know exactly what and how to do to win has arrived in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (finally!) One of their first actions was to turn off satellite communications for the Russian armed forces. This is a colossal success. The next steps that have already been planned threaten Russia with equally heavy losses.
The Russian advance on the front has slowed to a minimum, and Starlink has been disabled. Without this communication system, it could have stopped completely. There is now real chaos in the command and control system of the Russian troops.
And these troops are not getting stronger: The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already reached the figure of 30,000 Russian soldiers killed per month, which for the first time in the war does not allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase the number of members of the Russian army. In addition, the number of those willing to fight in the ranks of the Russian army is constantly decreasing. On December 25, Moscow recruited half as many soldiers as the day before, on December 24. That is, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract people from the margins to sign contracts with the army, even when large sums of money are offered for service in the Russian army.
Money has lost a lot of value in Russia. India's decision to drastically reduce or even completely abandon the purchase of Russian oil has dealt the Kremlin an economic blow of enormous force. Just a year and a half ago, Russia was earning a trillion rubles a month from oil exports. Now it barely earns 300 billion. Taking into account inflation, that is 250 billion compared to the previous year. In short, the decline in revenues is four times greater, and the expenditures of the Russian budget have not decreased. On the contrary, they have increased.
Incidentally, inflation in the Russian Federation also increased in January. Somehow we are convinced that it is precisely inflation in Russia that will become the graveyard of the Putin regime.
And most importantly: looking at all this, it becomes clear that the Russian army will not be able to take Donbas by force. There simply will not be enough resources to achieve this goal.

In short, although it is dark and cold around, there is a feeling that the general situation on the ground is developing in a good direction. Of course, there are still many bad things ahead for Ukrainians, the existing system in Moscow will not collapse just like that, but still: we are looking at what is happening, and we have the feeling that we have already crossed a critical line.