When we can't defeat the army, we will terrorize the population

Why Russia accuses Ukraine of creating nuclear weapons

The thesis that one of the main reasons for the attack on Ukraine is Ukraine's desire to regain its nuclear status has begun to spread in Russia. Allegedly, the Kremlin could not accept this state of affairs and was forced to invade. What is the reason for such rhetoric?

On the fact that Ukraine allegedly intends to create nuclear weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on February 21 in his lengthy speech, during which he recognized the "independence" of Donetsk and Luhansk. Among other things, he noted that the re-establishment of Ukraine's nuclear status is not an empty story.

"Ukraine has Soviet nuclear technology and the means to deliver such weapons, including aircraft, as well as Point-U tactical missiles, as well as Soviet technology with a range of more than 100 kilometers. But it will do more. "It's only a matter of time," Putin said.

The beginning of the great military operation against Ukraine was explained by completely different motives - "denazification" and "demilitarization".

The destruction of the alleged emerging nuclear capability has not been mentioned as one of the reasons for the invasion.

When the failure of the Kremlin's original military plans became apparent - it was impossible to "denazify" the entire population of the country, which together with the army fiercely opposed the invaders, the thesis about nuclear weapons in Ukraine reappeared.

In particular, Vladimir Putin recalled that during a meeting with flight attendants on March 5 (there are suspicions that a video was edited in which the President of the Russian Federation participated). A few days later, theses about the restoration of Ukraine's nuclear status as the main reason for the start of the war began to spread on pro-Russian channels, mostly blogs, which can be followed by Ukrainians.

In particular, blogger Dimitriev ("Russian Orientalist"), who has more than 89,000 subscribers, tried to explain in one of his publications why Putin, who was still trying to avoid a direct confrontation, suddenly decided to invade.

"Everyone is talking about a secret report that changed his attitude towards what is happening in Ukraine ... It is now clear that the report touched on a trigger that triggered a completely different impulse in Putin - it was information about nuclear weapons," wrote Dmitriev.

According to him, this explains the "urgent preparation of the campaign, regardless of sociology, diplomacy", as well as very strict requirements, especially for the United States. In support of this thesis, Dimitriev cites pre-war statements by President Vladimir Zelensky, who declared the Budapest Memorandum "inoperative". As you know, this document, signed on December 5, 1994, predetermined the status of Ukraine as a state without nuclear weapons. In addition to Ukraine and Russia, the Budapest Memorandum was signed by the United States and Great Britain.

According to Dimitrijev, Great Britain is the one that could in some way participate in the renewal of Ukraine's nuclear status, using the scientific and technical resources that remain in this country. This publication was republished by blog and telegram channels that support Russian plans.

Can Ukraine restore its nuclear potential in practice? It should be immediately noted that the United States was the main participant in the elimination of Ukrainian nuclear weapons. It was they who financed the dismantling of the relevant infrastructure. The last part of that infrastructure, in the area of Nikolaev, was destroyed in the fall of 2001 only thanks to American investments. Therefore, the Americans would be the first to do everything to ensure that Ukraine never returns to the "nuclear club".

The topic of Ukrainian nuclear weapons may be closed. But if we continue to dream about it, it can be said that the technical possibilities of Ukraine in that regard are very limited.

For example, Ukraine cannot count on rebuilding its strategic nuclear capabilities at all, as it lacks elements of the classic nuclear triad - strategic nuclear bombers, submarines, nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (MB) launchers. And if the SPS can theoretically be built with missiles - Ukraine has the technology to build mines and missiles, then what about bombers and submarines, which the Ukrainian defense industry is not able to produce? Besides, the construction of nuclear plants cannot be hidden from the eyes of international observers, and where to get funds for that? After all, even for the production of conventional weapons, Ukraine still has not found much money.

However, Putin did not talk about strategic nuclear weapons. Mentioning "Point-U", the President of the Russian Federation had in mind tactical nuclear weapons, which can be carried by such missile systems. With the means of delivery, Ukraine could try to rebuild tactical nuclear weapons. But again, where to get the funds for that and, most importantly, how to hide the realization of such a deal, the beginning of which, of course, not only Putin would know? Meanwhile, Ukrainian nuclear weapons continue to be talked about exclusively in Moscow and nowhere else in the world.

But if theses about the restoration of nuclear weapons are unsustainable, then why are they trying to justify them in Russia?

Faced with harsh condemnation of their actions around the world, strong international sanctions and fierce military resistance from Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to find new reasons for its invasion. The fight against the nuclear threat in Moscow seems to be harder evidence than the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of our country.

Thus, Russia would like to justify an attempt to take control of Ukraine's nuclear power plants, which could allegedly create plutonium for weapons. But it will be very difficult for the Russians to "sell".

Everyone is aware that Ukraine will not develop nuclear weapons, and attempts to seize Ukrainian nuclear power plants are just another element of blackmail. The threat of a new Chernobyl is a more terrible weapon than bombing cities. A typical practice of modern Russia: when it is not possible to defeat the army, we terrorize the population.