OPINION: Why Peace in Russia-Ukraine War is Impossible in the Short Term

1.   Russia cannot afford a just peace. It is far from achieving its strategic objectives and has made this war existential—for Ukraine, and for Putin’s regime.

2.    Putin launched this war not just to seize land, but to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty, culture, and history. He’s said it openly. This is a genocidal war. Russia has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and mass child abductions. Putin is wanted by the ICC. That’s not opinion—it’s fact.

3.  Stopping now would mean Putin having to accep failure:

Over 1 million Russian casualties.

•    A united, armed, sovereign Ukraine. For Putin, that’s not peace—it’s defeat. Continuing the war blurs the reality and buys time.

4.   If someone had told us in March 2022 that Ukraine would hold this strong 3.5 years later, we’d have called it a miracle. But that miracle is exactly why Putin can’t afford to stop. Ukraine’s survival is a threat to his regime.

5.    Russia and Ukraine’s positions are still miles apart. Neither side is desperate enough to make politically costly concessions. Ukraine won’t accept occupation. Russia won’t accept a free Ukraine. Finding middle ground is extremely difficult.

6.    Putin believes he can outlast the West. He sees a sovereign, democratic Ukraine as incompatible with his regime’s survival. Russia’s rhetoric has made the war existential. A functioning Ukraine is a threat to the Kremlin.

7.    Russia is now switched to a war economy. Its industries, policies, and global relevance depend on the war. Its role as China’s militarized pawn depends on it too. Putin is expanding the army and tying his legacy to this war. He’s all in.

8.    Trump is incapable of ending the war. Ukraine’s and Russia’s demands are too far apart. His strategies have failed, and he’s been too hesitant to pressure Russia. Europe has also been far too weak—failing to take a bigger role and help Ukraine pressure Russia effectively.

9.   Putin is skilled at playing for time. He will pretend to want peace to manipulate Western leaders—but peace is the last thing he wants. No deal acceptable to Ukraine will be on the table. Even if Ukraine is ready to compromise, Russia isn’t.

10.    The only way Trump could end the war is by putting real pressure on Russia—not Ukraine. Secondary tariffs and sanctions could help, but they must go beyond India, last longer, and be paired with large-scale U.S. military sales to Ukraine. Small sales and narrow sanctions won’t cut it.

11.    This war won’t end with a handshake. It will end when Russia is forced to accept reality. Until then, Europe must step up:

•    Far more military aid.

•    More investment in Ukraine’s defense industry.

•    Tougher sanctions. Because ignoring the threat won’t make it go away.