What is the Russian Oreshnik missile and why do experts doubt its effectiveness?

As the Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile shells flew over Kiev at night on May 24, some video captured an unusual detail. Despite a series of visible impacts and objects crashing to the ground, there were no explosive sparks that typically accompany a missile strike.

Blurred videos recorded during two previous attacks with this weapon, in Dnipro in November 2024 and in Lviv in January 2026, showed a similar lack of initial explosions.

“It appears that they [the missiles] do not carry explosives,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, told Radio Free Europe. The hypersonic projectiles fired by Oreshnik, which glow from the heat of reentry, “are likely heavy objects, with the idea that the destructive force comes from kinetic energy,” he added.

Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst at Rochan Consulting, said the Oreshnik attacks appear to be carried out with about 36 “kinetic penetrators,” which emerge from six reentry vehicles that are released from the missile during the final arc of its flight. These shells, he said, “rely on extremely high impact velocity to destroy or penetrate targets, rather than carrying large explosive payloads.”

But, with a cost estimated to be in the tens of millions of dollars for each missile, many commentators – including Russians – have questioned the usefulness of launching hypersonic chunks of metal or concrete at targets in Ukraine.

“Simply, extremely expensive equipment crashed to the ground,” wrote Russian blogger Vladimir Romanov on Telegram, posting a video of the latest attacks with Oreshnik. “All this for the sake of a beautiful picture that no one [except pensioners] believes,” he added.

The Oreshnik (or hazelnut tree in Albanian) is a medium-range ballistic missile, estimated to be about 12 meters long. It has a range of about 5.000 kilometers and a reported payload of more than a ton. This weapon is carried by a relatively small vehicle and is named for its ability to disappear from view, like a tree in a forest.

Ballistic missiles, such as the Oreshnik, which launch nuclear warheads from high altitudes, are notoriously difficult to hit accurately. This aspect is largely irrelevant in the case of a nuclear attack with a large range of destruction, but kinetic projectiles may not even be able to damage large targets.

An open-source investigation into the impact of the 2024 Oreshnik attack on Dnipro, which targeted a Soviet-era missile factory, found that the Orshenik shells may not have hit the factory at all.

Photos taken in Dnipro a few hours after the 2024 attack showed extensive damage to the roof of an unidentified building, but the rest of the building appeared intact.

Muzyka told Radio Free Europe that in the case of the May 24 attack, the footage “appears to show striking elements over a relatively wide area.” The military analyst said he believes this “may indicate deliberate distribution over several target locations or potentially significant limitations in terms of accuracy” of this weapon.

After the attack on Bila Tserkva, a Ukrainian military blogger identified what he claimed was the impact site of one of the shells. He compared the crater, which was the size of a swimming pool, to the destructive power of an artillery shell.

Earlier, Ukrainian emergency services had released images showing damaged garages and a small fire in Bila Tserkva. It is not clear what was targeted in the town, but Bila Tserkva is home to a Soviet-era airfield.

Experts believe the purpose of the Oreshnik attacks in Ukraine is largely psychological. "The attacks seem more like a strategic signal than an attempt to score significant successes [on the ground]," Muzyka told Radio Free Europe.

Podvig expressed a similar assessment. “Technically, maybe some damage can be caused with multiple shells against unprotected targets, but in my opinion it has more to do with sending the signal.”

Shortly before the Oreshnik attack on May 24, the Kremlin had called on the military to prepare "proposals" on how to retaliate for what it described as a Ukrainian drone attack on a student dormitory, which killed at least 18 people.

The Oreshnik has become a key propaganda item for the Kremlin, which has promoted its speed and range – across the entire European continent – ​​as well as the weapon’s ability to carry nuclear warheads. Russian state media has published the alleged flight times that Oreshnik warheads take to reach targets across Europe – 20 minutes to London and Paris, 12 minutes to Warsaw.

This nuclear capability, and a series of similar launches of long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles, appear to have led to the missile's use. On November 20, 2024, the day before the first Oreshnik launch into Ukraine, the U.S. and several other Western embassies were abruptly closed due to "increased risk of air strikes."

The day before the Oreshnik attack on May 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing intelligence from the US and Europe, said that Russia was preparing to strike Ukraine with this advanced missile.

Russia claims to “automatically” give the US a 30-minute warning before Oreshnik missile launches. The Pentagon has confirmed it was “briefly” notified before the November 2024 attack, but Podvig said it is likely that communication about Russian intentions was shared with the US side hours earlier.

“It’s a ballistic missile launch agreement that dates back to 1988, which both countries continue to abide by, and the pact requires 24 hours’ notice,” the weapons expert said. “Technically, it only covers intercontinental ballistic missiles, but I can imagine that to be on the safe side, Russia sends notices so that these launches are not interpreted as intercontinental ballistic missile launches.”

Currently, America has in force a nuclear doctrine called "launch on warning," which means that the US can carry out "retaliatory" attacks as soon as missiles launched by another party are detected, before they hit American territory.