What influence does Russia have on Serbia?
Dragan Sormaz for The Geopost
Russia influences Serbia through various channels and mechanisms – political, economic, media, security and social. It also uses hybrid warfare methods to influence public opinion and influence political processes. Political influence: links to political parties and individuals representing pro-Russian positions; lobbying through the Russian embassy and cultural institutions (such as the Russian House, which serves to spread the Russian narrative); parliamentary cooperation.
There are already several names of politicians who openly promote the Russian narrative in Serbia! One of them is Minister Nenad Popović, who bears the main responsibility for the lies about economic cooperation and spreads stories about Russia’s economic power and the benefits that Serbia derives from this cooperation. The other, well-known in the region, Aleksandar Vulin, spreads the story of a “Serbian world”, is in contact with the Russian security services, often openly represents Russian interests and represents Russian policy in Serbia. He even takes positions against the EU or its neighbors, in contradiction to the official positions of President Vučić! But you should know one thing: What Vulin says is Aleksandar Vučić’s REAL POLICY: the full invasion of the Balkans as soon as Russia wins the war in Ukraine!
Vučić is the number one man of Putin’s national socialist Stalinist regime in the Western Balkans! He is playing a game with the EU, the UK, the US and NATO, trying to “convince” them of the need for a more peaceful relationship with Russia because of the traditional friendship of the Orthodox peoples of the Balkans with Russia. At the same time, he is strengthening economic cooperation with China, so that China will become Serbia’s number one economic partner this year! This would be a historic precedent for Serbia, because Vučić has left the extraction and sale of copper, gold, etc. and the felling and sale of timber entirely to China! These are all secret contracts without public tenders, which form the basis of corruption in Serbia! If you add to this the work on building the infrastructure, you arrive at the accident of November 15 and the collapse of the concrete canopy in Novi Sad!
Don’t kid yourself: Until we topple Vučić, Putin will rule Serbia and interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring countries!
Media influence and information: pro-Russian media (Sputnik Serbia, RT Balkans and local tabloids Informer, Večernje Novosti, Politika, Srbin.info, Pravda.rs, which spread pro-Russian narratives and disinformation)! The Russian narrative is spread most strongly by the national TV channels Pink and Happy and most recently by TV Informer! All these media are literally spreading the Kremlin’s propaganda without respect for journalistic rules and without any ethics. Of course, they are supported by Vučić, who has provided them with a whole range of “analysts”, “experts” and “patriots” who appear daily in these media and predict the victory and world domination of “righteous Orthodox Russia” and the imminent collapse of the “rotten West”! A large number of such guests are accompanied by the media from the Russian embassy itself, reminding Vučić from time to time whose servant he is! These people are frequent guests in Moscow on various occasions!
Social networks and botnets (organized groups of trolls and bots that spread pro-Russian messages, manipulate debates and fuel polarization); Telegram and alternative platforms are used to coordinate propaganda activities and spread conspiracy theories. All this for the entire Western Balkans, organized precisely in Belgrade! This army is increasingly occupying the media space and is becoming more and more important for Russia, as the above mentioned media cannot spread the message beyond the older population of Serbia!
Economic influence: energy dependence (control of a significant part of the energy sector in Serbia by Gazprom Neft (majority owner of NIS) and Srbijagas and thus pressure on the government); investments and economic interests (loans and investments in strategic sectors, especially infrastructure and energy); trade relations used by Russia to maintain its influence. This Russian influence is currently the weakest in the country from Serbia to Serbia! Moscow has fled and thus serves Russia as a window to Europe, which it can use for its interests!
Technical cooperation with Washington (delivery of Russian weapons and military exercises with the Serbian army) should be suspended due to the war in Ukraine, but Vučić regularly warns the public that the suspension of this cooperation is due to “unfair sanctions” against Russia! Intelligence influence (infiltration of security structures and cooperation with local agents); the base in Niš, the so-called Humanitarian Center, which is often referred to as a possible bastion of Russian intelligence, poses the greatest threat to Serbia! The impact on the Serbian security services is so great that many insiders believe that after Vučić’s fall, what has not been done since October 5 must be done: namely, the complete closure of all secret services and the creation of new ones!
Social and cultural impact: The Orthodox Church and identity issues; NGOs and foundations (such as the “Balkan Center for Strategic Studies” and Russian-funded foundations protecting Russian interests); fraternal relations and historical narratives (use of historical themes such as the Serbian-Russian alliance, negative attitudes towards NATO and the West, etc.).
To my great chagrin, it is no secret that the SPC is fully connected to the Russian Church and the entire Orthodox world knows it! Russia exploits this and spreads its narrative through the clergy of the Serbian Church, which once again opposes Western Christian countries and even Orthodox Ukraine or the Ecumenical Patriarchate!
All the above points are used by Russia to carry out hybrid activities and special operations in Serbia: Disinformation and psychological warfare (spreading false reports about the West, NATO and the EU in order to increase mistrust of Western structures); support for extremist groups (contacts with ultra-nationalist and right-wing groups in Serbia that hold anti-EU and anti-NATO positions); Manipulation of protests and crises (Russia can support or instrumentalize protests, as has already been shown in the Covid protests, the protests against lithium mining and even the recent student protests, where it targeted its own population with Russian flags and attacked pro-European protesters; it provokes internal conflicts and political crises to destabilize the situation against the West and prevent Serbia from turning the situation against the West); cyberattacks and digital pressure (on institutions and media critical of Russia).
In short: Vučić’s regime is destabilizing the region, but it is doing great harm to Serbia and the Serbs! Not only because he is spreading violence, suppressing democracy and introducing systemic corruption, but also because Vučić has deliberately turned Serbia into a gubernia! Vučić will soon no longer be in power, but the fight against the evil from Moscow in Serbia will continue for years after his fall! Precisely because it is evil, the source of all evil in the world today!
WE WILL DEFEAT THIS EVIL!
/The Geopost/