What can force Putin to sign the agreement? There are three main levers.

The activation of the next phase of the “peace process” has been going on for a week. Let’s try to gather what we know.

1. There is no peace plan

The document that everyone perceived as the “American plan” is actually a diplomatic unofficial document – a working draft with a list of issues on which the parties should find compromises. It was not a plan, it was not an agreed document and it should not have been published.

After the draft was leaked to the media, the US administration agreed to treat it as a “plan”, but it seems that no one in the White House read it. US President Donald Trump said very directly that the US does not insist on any of its points.

Of course, no one expected Ukraine to sign it.

The document has so many omissions, errors and illiterate formulations that it needs significant rewriting. But to speed up the process, the draft was handed over to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a visit by US generals, and Trump and Rubio declared: “Now this is our plan, we are working on it.”

2. The initial positions coincide with the Kremlin’s demands by about 85 percent

The Americans do not hide it: the more “pro-Ukrainian” the agreement is, the less likely it is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign it.

The US assumes that the war will not end without an agreement with Putin.

After all, even a ceasefire along the front line without an agreement will not stop Russian attacks on cities. This will turn the war into an endless one – with understandable consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

Therefore, the US logic is simple: Ukraine must compromise, otherwise there will be no agreement. What Russia will agree to – no one yet knows or understands.

3. What could force Putin to sign the agreement.

There are three main levers. First, Western concessions. This explains the mentions in the draft of Russia’s return to the G8, Russia’s partial recognition of certain annexed territories of Ukraine, amnesty for war crimes, and the lifting of some sanctions.

Second, economic pressure. The US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the debate on Lindsey Graham’s bill to permanently lift sanctions, are a signal that Washington intends to increase pressure, not reduce it.

Third, China. Without Chinese economic support, Russia cannot wage war. And for the first time during the war, China mentioned Ukraine as a separate item in a Foreign Ministry statement after Xi’s talks with Trump. Beijing supported “efforts to achieve peace,” but insisted that the agreement eliminate “all root causes of the conflict” — a formula that everyone interprets in their own way. Previously, our Ukraine was mentioned only between the lines.

Whether this will yield results is an open question. But it seems that this is one of Putin’s last chances to end the war on terms that are more or less acceptable to him. Then the US enters the election cycle and there may be no chance of major concessions.

4. Will Putin sign the agreement?

The probability exists, but it is very small. Putin is convinced that he is winning the war, and the winners are not stopped by peace agreements. They dictate their own terms. This is the logic of all the ultimatums of the Russian dictator in recent years.

Negotiations on a revised version of the agreement are underway, but what is in it now is unknown. Lower-ranking Russian officials who received the amended version of the agreement have already called it untenable. Official statements from the Kremlin are likely to be similar. All this suggests that the chances of ending the war with the proposed agreement are not very high.

Apparently, the Ukrainian authorities understand this, which is why Zelensky says that Ukraine’s task in this process is to “preserve a key ally.” That is, to calmly, technically work out the text. Then the US will forward it to Moscow – and there, with a very high probability, it will be rejected and forgotten.