Three scenarios for ending the war. Why Putin no longer controls events
How Ukraine's "active defense" drove Moscow into a trap
Ukraine is shifting the course of the war by moving to "active defense." According to Western analysts, this tactic deprives the Kremlin of the ability to dictate peace terms and pushes Moscow increasingly closer to negotiations.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin havt a choice: dialogue, a protracted war, or escalation. At the same time, Kyiv is pressuring Moscow on the battlefield, on Russian territory, and in the diplomatic arena. The coming months could prove decisive. writes the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung. LIGA.net retells briefly.
Syrskyi's "active defense"
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi In mid-July, he wrote that Russia is losing more than 400 soldiers per square kilometer—especially in the Donbas, where the Russians are attempting to capture Kostiantynivka.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Ukraine's losses are significantly lower. Partly due to effective fortifications, the ratio of Ukrainian soldier fatalities to Russian ones is one to eight.
Syrskyi’s conclusion is as follows: "We must seize the strategic initiative; that is why our defense is active." In military terms, this means the Armed Forces of Ukraine are on the offensive, attempting to break out of a war of attrition.
A mechanized counterattack is out of the question. Drones have made it impossible for either side to advance with tanks. The kill zone is expanding. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have fortified the terrain along the front to such an extent that any attempt at a breakthrough is doomed to failure.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have developed a concept that focuses on operations in depth rather than on firepower and movement along the front line. The goal is to isolate Russian troops in the occupied territories; Ukrainian drone operators first cut off access to Crimea, and have now done the same for the Sea of Azov.
In military terms, this concept is known as A2/AD: cutting off supply lines and isolating a territory. The enemy is kept at bay through firepower and prevented from deploying forces. A2/AD is typically employed for deterrence, dissuading an aggressor from attempting to enter the territory because the cost would be too high.
In the Ukrainian version, A2/AD is interpreted differently: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are wearing down Russian forces in the Donbas, causing a collapse of supply lines in occupied territory and making occupation practically impossible, writes NZZ.
There is also a side effect: Russia is becoming even more isolated from the global market. With the Sea of Azov closed off, yet another route for the Russian shadow fleet has been eliminated.
Putin cannot dictate the terms of peace
Kyiv has reorganized its ground forces and formed corps. These large units are capable of deploying all military assets within their area of responsibility from a single command center. Previously, brigades operated independently at the tactical level; now, an operational structure is in place. The new "battle order" allows for the more efficient use of limited resources.
Ukraine has adopted a stance of firmly confronting Russia by seizing the operational initiative. The goal is to force the Russians into genuine negotiations. The worse the situation in the occupied territories and within Russia itself, the better, writes NZZ.
On the other hand, Putin seeks to capture the Donbas as an intermediate objective in Ukraine in order to further pursue his strategic goal: a new European security order. The Kremlin no longer believes it is possible to impose peace terms on Kyiv with the help of the US president Donald Trump.
Margarita Simonyan, one of Russia's leading propagandists, stated back in April that Russia should not rely on Trump: "This 'peace deal' is a smokescreen. It needs to be put to an end."
Three scenarios for ending the war
Based on these premises, the NZZ outlines three options for breaking the wartime deadlock:
Negotiations. This is the path Kyiv is largely following, but it depends on whether the US and Europe adopt the same course. The key is for these actions to take place within the framework of international law. This will make it possible to distinguish between the aggressor and the defender. Consequently, Ukraine—not Russia—will set the terms. This will enable a process of reciprocal concessions.
Europeans hinted at possible negotiations with Moscow. Putin responded, by proposing former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, however, the partners do not consider this a serious proposal.
Escalation. This option is being discussed by hardliners in Russia. In the relevant media, Putin is portrayed as moderate and prudent—described as determined to avoid a Third World War. However, radical critics of the Kremlin dictator believe that Russia should wage war using its full military might. The NZZ identifies the use of tactical nuclear weapons or an attack on the infrastructure of a NATO country providing military support to Ukraine as the ultimate scenario. Mobilization in Russia is also a possibility.
Neither peace nor war. The war in Ukraine has lasted longer than World War I. Yet the Kremlin's calculation that it could crush Ukrainian resistance has not materialized.
Kyiv has managed to disrupt Russia's energy supply using drones. Now, the populations of Moscow and St. Petersburg are feeling the impact of the war. Putin cannot afford to play for time, even though he is banking on changes of government in major European countries and the prospect of eroding aid to Kyiv.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is pinning its hopes on a "new generation" of politicians in Europe, referring to Marine Le Pen in France and "Alternative for Germany" in Germany, which share Russian views.
European peace through strength
Since the spring, Kyiv has become more active than Moscow, capitalizing on the geopolitical confusion that arose following the Israeli-American attack on Iran.Volodymyr Zelenskyy gained allies in the Persian Gulf through drone deals, particularly with the UAE—a financial hub that has so far allowed Russians to circumvent Western sanctions.
In April, Zelenskyy visited Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus alongside Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Syria and Turkey are pushing Russia out of the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has closed the Bosphorus to Russian warships since 2022, and now Damascus plans to end Moscow's military presence in the country.
In this way, Ukraine is successfully extending the A2/AD concept to the diplomatic sphere and pushing Russia out of more distant regions. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry notes the interconnectedness of security in Europe and the Middle East, pointing to deepened cooperation with Syria—a country that had been a Russian ally prior to the regime change.
The geopolitical shift limits Russia's ambitions for global power and strengthens Ukraine's role as a military partner. Even Trump is impressed by Ukraine's successes on the battlefield.
This is one of the reasons why, in early July, he signed the NATO summit declaration, which contradicts his previous attempts to move closer to Putin: "Alliance Allies stand united with Ukraine and steadfastly support it in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity."
An imposed peace that ignores international law and the UN Charter has become less likely.