"Shot in the leg" and eight more myths about the Kremlin's sanctions policy

Debunking the most popular myths related to sanctions against Russia

Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine has been going on for more than five months. During this time, the international coalition of partner states supports Ukraine in various ways.
Financial and humanitarian aid, updated intelligence, modern weapons — all this helps Ukraine to effectively oppose the Russian Federation. One of the most important areas of work for opposing the aggressor is the comprehensive policy of sanctions, which binds significant forces of Moscow.

From energy to technology, every day Russia is gradually turning into a country in exile with which neither governments nor international companies want to do business. However, the policy of sanctions against Russia is often underestimated, which is why various manipulations and myths grow around it.

Myth #1. Sanctions don't work

This is the simplest and most popular myth about the Kremlin, which cannot withstand any criticism. According to the forecasts of world rating agencies, thanks to the sanctions, Russia's GDP will decrease by 10 percent by the end of 2022, and the unemployment rate will rise to 9.3 percent.
In fact, another 3.8 million Russians will lose their jobs in the near future. At the same time, the real income of citizens will decrease by 6.8 percent.
The sanctions don't seem to be hitting Russia hard, but that's not the case. Sanctions have also significantly affected Russia's financial system. Thus, the inflation rate in the Russian Federation in 2022 will exceed 20 percent, which is a record for the Russian economy since the financial crisis of 2008. Experts also expect a reduction in the volume of foreign economic transactions with the Russian Federation by 20-30 percent. It is obvious that Russia is facing serious problems related to the procurement of the most important components, parts and technologies.
In this context, the global rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) predicts a significant decline in business activities in the Russian Federation. According to preliminary estimates by S&P, the Russian economy will need 10 years to recover to the level of the beginning of 2022.

Myth #2. Sanctions hurt the West more than Russia

This myth is extremely popular among supporters of the Kremlin in the West - it is worth mentioning at least the rhetoric of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who calls the new sanctions a "shot in the leg" or even a "shot in the lungs" of the European economy. But Moscow's attempts to reduce the consequences of sanctions on Russia are purely propaganda in nature.

It is expected that none of the countries that imposed sanctions on Russia will have such bad macroeconomic indicators in 2022 as Russia. According to the regulator's forecast, the economy of the Eurozone will grow by 2.6 percent this year, the United Kingdom by 3.75 percent, and the USA by 2.3 percent.
The policy of harsh sanctions against the Russian Federation is already leading to irreversible consequences for the Russian economy. But the most important thing remains the fact that additional sanctions against Russia are a reliable investment by the West in its own security.

Myth #3. Sanctions have hurt Western industry and farmers

This is another popular myth among Putinists in the West. He says that Russian companies are an important component of many value-added chains, which are only recovering after the global corona crisis, so the introduction of additional sanctions against the Kremlin is problematic.
Such rhetoric undermines the world's ability to stop Russian armed aggression against Ukraine. It is clear that the imposition of major anti-Russian sanctions after February 24, 2022 was an absolutely necessary step to reduce the Kremlin's ability to attack Ukraine.
It is worth adding that thanks to the sanctions policy, Western countries will finally be able to reduce their long-standing dependence on Russian resources.
In addition, the economic losses due to the imposition of sanctions are nothing compared to the consequences of possible Russian aggression against the West in the future.

Myth #4. Due to the new sanctions, Russia has almost stopped supplying gas

It is worth recalling the fact that the current EU sanctions did not affect the delivery of natural gas from Russia. But the main flaw of this thesis is that it does not take into account the context of Russia's gas policy in relation to its neighbors.
Even six months before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia began to slowly tighten the gas blockade of Europe. In the second half of 2021, Gazprom refused to deliver additional quantities of natural gas to the EU, which caused a shortage on the market and a multiple increase in the price of this energy product.
The Russian government systematically uses gas as a means of blackmail. As of July 2022, Russia has cut gas supplies to the EU to a record low of one billion cubic meters per week, but the EU has already accumulated record amounts of gas over the past 10 years.

Myth #5. Sanctions led to a sharp rise in prices

One can often hear the objection among opponents of sanctions against the Russian Federation that the new restrictions have led to higher prices of fuel, electricity and food. In fact, global inflation is the result of the COVID-19 lockdown, during which central banks freed up trillions of dollars to finance additional health care and unemployment programs. Such a large emission by many governments could not but affect inflation.
As for energy prices, this myth is closely related to the previous one. Fuel and electricity costs began to rise sharply in the second half of 2021 — before the introduction of large-scale sanctions against the Russian Federation.
At the same time, the Kremlin is responsible for such a sudden rise in prices, because it deliberately reduced the volume of energy supplies to European countries.

Myth #6. Personal sanctions did not affect Putin's entourage, oligarchs and civil servants

Such a myth is spread only by those who do not comply with the sanctions against the Russian Federation at all. Thanks to the new sanctions coalition countries' restrictions, Putin's inner circle has been deprived of real estate, bank accounts and other assets abroad. From now on, Russian oligarchs are deprived of markets and financial instruments in Western countries.
The Kremlin's policy is causing them multi-billion dollar losses. So, according to the rating of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the 25 richest Russians have lost more than 60 billion dollars since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
Moreover, a number of influential Russian oligarchs (Abramovich, Deripaska, Tinkov, etc.) opposed the war in Ukraine. Despite this, the West should increase pressure on Russian businessmen and powerful people, especially on 50 oligarchs, who, according to the estimate of the American financier Bill Browder, hold up to 200 billion dollars of Putin's personal wealth.

Myth #7. Do not introduce new sanctions, it will only anger the Kremlin

The policy of concessions, compromises and appeasement of aggressors did not succeed either against Nazi Germany in 1939 or against Putin's Russia in 2022. Comprehensive sanctions against Russia are an investment in the security of the Western world.
The technological and financial isolation of the Russian Federation will significantly reduce the Kremlin's ability to threaten Western countries, destabilize Europe and corrupt the elites of third countries. It also reduces the Kremlin's ability to wage a protracted military campaign in Ukraine.
But it shouldn't stop there. The West has many additional options for further strengthening sanctions against Moscow, including financial, energy and individual restrictions, provided for in the respective roadmaps of the Yermak-McFaul International Group.

Myth #8. The world cannot give up trade with Russia

"Too big to fail" is a term often used to describe Russia's role in world trade and security. In fact, the importance of the economy of the Russian Federation for the world concerns mainly raw materials — energy and grain. The Western world has every opportunity to diversify the supply of these goods. Thanks to the sanctions, Russia will lose the ability to deliver 90 percent of its oil to the EU by the end of 2022.
Despite minimal gas deliveries to the EU from Russia in 2022 and constant pressure from the Kremlin, the EU enters the upcoming heating season with the largest gas reserves in the last 10 years.
In fact, Russia has become extremely toxic to the operation of big international business. Hundreds of foreign companies have left the Russian market, and new ones are joining them every week.
The volume of trade with Russia shows a sharp decline, and this trend will continue with each new day of the war against Ukraine.

Myth #9. Instead of sanctions and arms transfers, we must freeze the conflict in Ukraine

Experts of the Yermak-McFaul international group are convinced that if the conflict freezes, a new war against Ukraine will begin as soon as Russia regains its strength. We were convinced of this by our own bitter experience: attempts to freeze the conflict in Donbas in 2014-2015 they were not successful and only increased Moscow's appetite.
The view, which is currently popular among Russian sympathizers, such as British Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, relies on a false perception of the Kremlin's "goodwill".
Easing sanctions would leave Russia with significant financial opportunities, as well as the ability to produce modern weapons for future wars. In addition, many European countries — Moldova, the Baltic states, Poland and others — may be under attack from the Russian Federation.
That is why the acquisition of Western weapons — additional artillery and missile systems, shells for them, armored vehicles and air defense systems — is critically necessary to accelerate the liberation of Ukrainian territory and end the war.

Instead of a conclusion

At one time, the legendary Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Winston Churchill, said: "He who appeases the aggressor is the one who feeds the crocodile, hoping to eat him last."
The world, especially the countries of the West, must understand: the defeat of Ukraine in the war with Russia is a direct path to a new war of even greater proportions on the territory of Europe. Instead, Ukraine's victory will neutralize Moscow's aggressive actions and become a guarantee of the security of the European continent for many years to come. The policy of sanctions against the Russian Federation deals a tangible blow to the capabilities of the aggressor. Together with our allies, we must put an end to the Kremlin's aggressive plans in Europe.
To achieve this goal, we must be united and consistent, moving step by step towards a just peace.