Russian Troops In Ukraine Selling Guns, Harming Unit Effectiveness, And Boosting Crime – Analysis

Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, some Russian troops have been stealing weapons from the Russian military in Ukraine and taking them back to the Russian Federation when released from service.

This threatens unit cohesion and effectiveness in Ukraine and boosts the amount of violent crime at home (see EDM, November 29, 2022, February 25). The difficulties of recovering the weapons of demobilized soldiers have been a problem for many armies during or immediately after a conflict. This phenomenon is especially serious in the Russian case because many of the men now fighting for Moscow in Ukraine have criminal backgrounds and are serving there only because Putin has released them from prison if they agreed to serve in Ukraine (Window on Eurasia, June 28, 2024, August 21).

This reflects a deeper problem for Russian society. Russians are paid vast bonuses to join the war effort, and many veterans turn to a life of crime because there is a lack of well-paid work that would allow them to maintain the new lifestyles the sign-up bonuses provide (Window on Eurasia, May 16, June 6). Their readiness to turn to crime, therefore, is an effort to boost their incomes. The upsurge of crime has unsurprisingly alarmed ordinary citizens and Russian officials, and increased hostility toward veterans. Moscow has thus been compelled to take additional steps to curb the criminal behavior (Window on Eurasia, March 29, April 15, July 18, August 6; The Moscow Times, September 9).

These measures have had limited success, and the theft of weapons by Russian soldiers in Ukraine appears to be growing. This compromises the effectiveness of the Russian army units in Ukraine and suggests that violence will only increase further as more of the 700,000 potential veterans return to Russia. Russian authorities are not prepared to openly discuss the consequences of the rising theft and sale of weapons by Russian soldiers. Since the fall of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has stopped publishing statistics related to this phenomenon (Verstka, November 2, 2023).

Since then, officials have, at most, sought to downplay these dangers by dismissing them as the work of individuals. The theft, resale, and use of weapons are now so widespread, however, that efforts to stop them, including court cases against perpetrators, have enabled independent Russian journalists, such as those at the Verstka group, to document the situation (Verstka, September 5).

Despite the obstacles put in place by Russian officials to prevent this research, journalists from Verstka have concluded that “Russian soldiers are massively carrying away weaponry from the zone of the [so-called] ‘Special Military Operation,’ including pistols, automatic weapons, ammunition, and even grenade launchers.”

Among their key findings, three are particularly noteworthy. First, while Russian commanders nominally oppose such thefts, their own actions sometimes make it easier for soldiers to carry them out. That is because Russian commanders often misreport the number of guns their units have to cover possible future losses of such equipment, but this lowers the risk for those who want to steal such weapons. That, in turn, suggests that at least some officers are aware of what is going on and are either turning a blind eye to it or even helping their men steal. Second, most of the soldiers who are caught say they are taking these weapons as souvenirs or trophies, but some are selling them to relatives or others interested in purchasing guns and ammunition. Much of this weaponry is being handed over to Russia’s again-burgeoning organized crime, giving it capacities it did not have in the past (Window on Eurasia, April 7, July 18, 2024).

Third, the courts appear not to be imposing the kind of draconian sentences one might expect. Instead, the majority of such thieves are given suspended sentences or fines rather than imprisonment, although Verstka journalists say limitations in the available data do not allow for certainty on that point. The courts’ light sentencing appears to be in line with Putin’s effort to boost veterans as Russia’s new elite. Giving veterans long sentences would likely turn them against the Kremlin and increase the risk of violence upon their return from the frontlines.

In the short term, the theft of military equipment used in Ukraine is unlikely to create problems in Russia that the Kremlin cannot manage using its current levers of power. Over time, however, the continued proliferation of weapons across Russia is certain to create conditions that threaten stability both abroad and at home. That is why some in the Kremlin are now worried (The Moscow Times, September 9).

In Ukraine, such thefts by Russian soldiers not only deprive some units of the weapons they need but, more importantly, they fuel increasing hostility among soldiers with their commanders and the system they represent. That may matter in the event of a crisis brought on by a possible reversal of Russian fortunes in Ukraine.

At home, the problems for the Kremlin are immediate and potentially very serious. While weapons stolen from the Russian military are only one of the sources of such equipment for criminals, they are not an unimportant one, and it is already the case that Russian criminals are sometimes better armed than are the police. The influx of weapons also contributes to the rise of paramilitary groups such as the Russian Community, which often cooperate with the authorities but, on occasion, have turned on the regime’s representatives (see EDM, May 27, July 30).

Rising and increasingly violent crime, in turn, will certainly fuel demands by the Russian population and some in the elite for a tougher policy than the Putin regime has yet adopted. While increased repression could benefit the Kremlin in the short term, it could increase displeasure among Russian veterans in the long term. Should that happen, the theft of weapons by Russian soldiers from their own units could prove to be a more serious threat to the Putin regime.