Russian influence through propagandist narratives increases anti-european mood in the North Macedonia

“Membership in NATO is harmful, costly, but also treasonous as Greece takes control of the airspace of North Macedonia”. “Russia has military and scientific superiority over NATO and the EU”. “The military power of the EU and the US cannot withstand the military power of Russia”. “Russia and China have handled the crises with COVID-19 pandemic the best, these two countries have the most solidarity, while the West is selfish to help others.” “The West is divided in its efforts to make decisions against Russian aggression in Ukraine.” “The EU, US and other countries sanctions against Russia will not be effective and will be withdrawn because only Western countries will suffer from these sanctions.” “Putin is a strong leader who defends the interests of the Russian people and the entire Orthodox world.”

These are the narratives that have been most present in the public of North Macedonia since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and announced the terrible war that is currently taking place in Ukraine.

Narrative and propaganda are not the same thing. It is not a synonym where two different words mean the same thing. Narrative is the telling of a story about specific events, while propaganda is a strategic operation to disseminate messages to the public that have a specific purpose. Propaganda contains false or framed figures or details (framing theory), while packaging them as narrative is a more efficient way to serve them.

SOPHISTICATED PROPAGANDA

Data on media ownership from the Central Register of Macedonia (CRM) show that not a single media outlet in the country is owned by a Russian citizen or company. However, analysis of four Macedonian-language media outlets shows that Russian narratives are more than present in the local media sphere. For this analysis, coverage was observed on the Russia Beyond (RB), Think, Antropol, and Kukuriku portals. These online media have promoted Russian positions on aggression against Ukraine, Russia’s stance towards NATO and the EU, and at the same time exalting the figure of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Explicitly, Russian positions on the main geopolitical issues are represented mainly by the portal think.mk, owned by Daniel Kraljevski. This portal was created on February 28, 2022, just one day after the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The portal antropol.mk belongs to Association ANTROPOL Skopje, while Kukuriku.com.mk belongs to the service company RADAN ADVERTAJZING DOOEL Skopje.

Russia Beyond (RB) is a multilingual online media that promotes Russia’s interests in several language areas. According to the media’s own description, RB is an international multimedia project managed by the autonomous non-profit organization “TV-Novosti.” But Western media have described RB as another propaganda tool of Moscow that differs in its coverage from state media but plays the same role. This medium has publications in a total of 14 languages, including macedonian.

Local pro-Russian media do not hide their preference for the two marginal parties on the political scene in North Macedonia – the first is “Levica” and Dimitar Apasiev, which has 2 MPs, and the second is “Edinstvena Macedonia” of Janko Bacev, which is currently not represented in parliament.

Besides portals, Facebook pages and groups are dynamic and quite active. Their maximum activation was in the direction of deepening the disputes with Bulgaria, especially after the agreement on lifting the veto for the start of negotiations with the EU was reached in mid-2022. The protests in Skopje against this agreement were promoted precisely by such online media that aimed to turn these protests into ethnic clashes between Macedonians and Albanians.

Unlike RB as a Russian-based media outlet, the monitored media from Northern Macedonia are less engaged in promoting Russian interests in the country and the region. Some of these media outlets have been more reluctant to disseminate narratives about Russia and more open to news promoting the constructive role of NATO and the EU following the adoption of the Prespa agreement and constitutional amendments in 2018. In general, RB is focused on publishing commentary, interviews, analysis, and news stories that highlight Russia’s military superiority to NATO countries and Russia’s cultural closeness to the Macedonian people.

FOCUS ON UNDERMINIG AGREEMENTS

Russian propaganda sought to build narratives aimed at damaging the image of NATO and the EU and strengthening the ties of the Macedonian people to Russia. Since its formation, North Macedonia has had as a strategic orientation the integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures. Its membership in NATO on March 30, 2020 and the start date of membership negotiations with the EU were conditioned upon the signing of the Prespa Agreement with Greece. The process of reaching a compromise, negotiations, signing the agreement, the referendum, approval of the amendments to the Agreement to change the Constitution, and the process of putting it into practice were followed by strong anti-Western propaganda. After the adoption of the constitutional amendments resulting from the Prespa Agreement, the pro-Russian narrative consisted of information showing Russia’s superiority to NATO and the EU, especially before and after the aggression against Ukraine began.

Russian aggression against Ukraine has entered its second year, creating a new geopolitical reality that has transformed the media from an information tool into a sophisticated weapon. The Russian presence in the media space of North Macedonia increased with the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine in February this year. In parallel with the military actions on the ground, the parties also started a media war to create a world audience in support of their agenda. In response to this increased propaganda, Russian state media RT and Sputnik were banned by the government from being broadcast by the country’s cable operators. However, Russian influence continued to spread through several Serbian and Bulgarian television channels present on the country’s digital and cable platforms.

However, Russia’s influence through the construction of pro-Putin, anti-NATO, and anti-BD narratives remains a major concern for the country’s security and democracy. The latest credible polls show a significant increase in anti-European sentiment, with 34% of northern Macedonian citizens opposing EU integration. This is the highest percentage of anti-European sentiment in the Western Balkans, ahead of Serbia at 32%. This has naturally provoked reactions in Brussels, especially with regard to Skopje, where it seems that the media and the non-governmental sector supported by European funds have not been able to produce the expected results./Xhelal Neziri, associate from North Macedonia/